What is the challenge?
Extreme hydroclimatic events such as droughts and floods cause huge damages in South Asia and East Africa, in particular to agricultural production and rural livelihoods. Long-term climate projections suggest that more frequent and severe hydroclimatic extremes are likely to happen in the decades to come. Enhancing farmers’ coping capacity and improving agricultural and water policies is necessary to increase the resilience of rural communities towards both today’s and future hydroclimatic extremes.
Key research questions:
- What can we learn from historical drought events in the Indo-Gangetic Plains and East Africa?
- At the rural community level, what drought mitigation measures are most effective at reducing risks faced by rural households? At the provincial and national level, what policies are most promising?
- What are the macro impacts of climate extreme events on regional water and food security?
- What strategies are effective at reducing livelihood risks due to climate shocks for men and women in Ethiopia?
Basic information about the activity:
This project aims to provide policy-relevant recommendations on how to enhance the resilience of rural communities to hyroclimatic extreme events, such as drought. The main objectives of the project are to:
- Characterize drought patterns to inform drought management planning.
- Develop a risk-based hydroeconomic optimization model and adapt it to the production condition and policy environment of northeast India to identify and prioritize drought mitigation measures, focusing on coping with delayed monsoon.
- Assess macroscale impacts of major droughts on water and food security, and identify promising mitigation policies using a global agricultural economic model. Multicentury paleoclimate reconstruction is used in drought scenarios.
- Analyze crop yield impacts of climate extremes and climate change in the Indo-Gangetic plains.
- Analyze resilience of rural households in Ethiopia to climate shocks using household survey data.
The household survey data will be used to assess the roles played by men and women to mitigate the risks of extreme events. We will also explore men’s and women’s perceptions of climate change and climate risk, knowledge of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices, and adoption of CSA practices and adaptation strategies.
- University of Illinois,
- University of Central Florida, USA
Journal Articles and Working Papers (completed and in preparation):
- Paper: Droughts in Pakistan: a spatiotemporal variability analysis using the Standardized Precipitation Index, by X Hua, Ringler C, Tingju Z, Waqas A, 2013. Published in Water International.
- Paper: Climate change impacts and adaptation options for water and food in Pakistan: scenario analysis using an integrated global water and food projections model, by Tingju Z, Ringler C, Iqbal M, Sulser T and Goheer M. 2013. Published in Water International.
- A working paper that reviews drought risk management in agriculture in the Indo-Gangetic Plains and East Africa
- A paper on risk-based drought management for CCAFS site in northeast India
- A paper on the role of groundwater irrigation in drought mitigation, in India
- A paper on mega-drought impacts on water and food security in the Indo-Gangetic Plains
- Papers on resilience of rural households in Ethiopia to climate shocks using household survey data
Tingju Zhu (email@example.com)
This project is led by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and funded by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)