Researchers at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and their many country collaborators are dedicated to helping farmers with the challenges posed by a changing climate. Our work covers global, country, and farm level analyses and uses sophisticated water, crop, and economic models to assess the impact of climate change on agricultural activities. Based on these analyses, researchers at IFPRI identify technologies, tools, incentives, and policies that help smallholders to grow food, care for the earth and improve their livelihoods in the process.
Books
Glauber, Joseph W.; Laborde, David. Washington, DC 2023
Glauber, Joseph W.; Laborde, David. Washington, DC 2023
The current sanctions regime aims to spare the agriculture sector, including inputs, to avoid side effects on global food security. Russia is a major global supplier of key staples, including wheat, and both countries are important fertilizer producers and exporters. Shutting down trade in those items would have disastrous consequences for global markets and on agriculture and food supplies in countries reliant on them.
Glauber, Joseph W.; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Laborde Debucquet, David; Martin, Will; Rice, Brendan; Vos, Rob. Washington, DC 2023
Given the importance of both Russia and Ukraine as suppliers in global markets for wheat, maize, sunflower seeds and oil, and Russia’s importance in international fertilizer and energy markets, the war provoked a surge in food and energy prices worldwide. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)’s international food price index climbed to its all-time high in mid-May (Figure 1). At that point, wheat prices, for instance, were up 32% from their level at the start of the war. Then prices fell, with those of agricultural commodities, including wheat, returning to pre-war levels. However, prices remain high by historical standards, reflecting impacts of supply disruptions and the surge in global demand for commodities during the recovery from the COVID-19-induced recession in 2021.
Hebebrand, Charlotte; Laborde Debucquet, David. Washington, DC 2023
World market prices for both food and fertilizer (here we focus only on N, P, and K) increased significantly over the past year and a half and have climbed to even higher levels following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, hitting their highest levels yet in March (see Figure 1, +125% from January 2021 to January 2022, +17% from January 2022 to March 2022).
While there is an immediate concern about the impact of high food prices on food security, especially in low and middle-income countries, fertilizer price spikes and concerns about availability cast a shadow on future harvests, and thus risk keeping food prices high for a longer period.
In this blog post — which draws on data from the new IFPRI fertilizer dashboard; IFASTAT, compiled by the International Fertilizer Association (IFA); and FAOSTAT — we discuss the underlying drivers of current high pric es, explain why the global fertilizer market is particularly susceptible to shocks, and examine which countries are most vulnerable to fertilizer market disruptions. A subsequent post will explore short- and medium-term solutions to address the serious affordability and availability concerns.
Glauber, Joseph W.. Washington, DC 2023
Before 2022, volatility (measured by the implied volatility in the wheat futures market) spiked and remained high three times since 2006 — in 2007/08 and then again in 2010/11 and 2012/13 (as indicated in the gray bands in the figure). Markets then remained relatively quiet until the recent spike following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. High volatility persists due to market uncertainty over the war and the relative tightness in stock levels, which provide little cushion against unforeseen production shortfalls.
Journal Articles
Martin, Will. Article in press
Chander, Girish; Singh, Ajay; Abbhishek, Kumar; Whitbread, Anthony M.; Jat, M. L.; Mequanint, Melesse B.; Falk, Thomas; Nagaraju, B.; Kamdi, Prasad J.; Cuba, P.; Mandapati, Roja; Anupama, G. V. . Article in press
Zhang, Wei; ElDidi, Hagar; Masuda, Yuta J.; Swallow, Kimberly A.; Ringler, Claudia; DeMello, Nicole; Aldous, Allison; Meinzen-Dick, Ruth Suseela. Article in press
Nkonya, Ephraim; Kato, Edward; Kabore, Carolyn. Article in press
Aditi, Kumari; Abbhishek, Kumar; Chander, Girish; Singh, Ajay; Falk, Thomas; Mequanint, Melesse B.; Cuba, Perumal; Anupama, G.; Mandpati, Roja; Nagaraji, Satish. 2023
Policy Briefs
Breisinger, Clemens; Karugia, Joseph; Keenan, Michael; Mbuthia, Juneweenex. Washington, DC 2022
De Pinto, Alessandro; Wiebe, Keith D.; Rosegrant, Mark W.. Washington, D.C. 2016
Fan, Shenggen; Ringler, Claudia; Nkonya, Ephraim M.; Stein, Alexander J.. Washington, D.C. 2012
Fan, Shenggen; Torero, Maximo; Headey, Derek D.. Washington, DC 2011
Falck-Zepeda, José Benjamin; Cavalieri, Anthony J.; Zambrano, Patricia. Washington, D.C. 2009
Reports
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, DC 2023
CGIAR Initiative on Foresight. Montpellier, France 2023
Objectives | The Foresight Partnership Forum brought together key partners from across Sub-Saharan Africa to explore challenges facing food, land, and water systems at national, regional, and global scales; identify opportunities to share and strengthen capacity for foresight; and examine ways to use foresight tools and analysis to inform policy making. The Forum on 24-25 January was followed by a training session on country development and policy modeling for partners on 26-27 January.
Pal, Barun Deb; Gurung, Tayan Raj; Pathak, Himanshu. New Delhi, India 2022
CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM). Washington, DC 2022
Deb Pal, Barun; Tyagi, Narendra Kumar. New Delhi, India 2022
Working papers
Pul, Hippolyt; Meinzen-Dick, Ruth Suseela; Konde, Bernard B.; Zogho, Donatus; Kuuchille, Emmanuel V.; McCarthy, Nancy; Marivoet, Wim. Washington, DC 2023
Dusingizimana, Petronille; Kazungu, Jules; Lalui, Armin; Milani, Peiman; Munanura, James; Nsabimana, Aimable; Sindi, Julius Kirimi; Spielman, David J.; Umugwaneza, Maryse. Washington, DC 2022
A food system comprises the full range of actors and activities originating from agriculture, livestock, forestry, or fisheries, as well as the broader economic, societal, and natural environments in which they operate. An inclusive and sustainable food systems transformation is a process of growth and development that is profitable for the full range of individual actors engaged in the system, beneficial for society including marginalized and vulnerable groups, and advantageous for the natural environment.
Rwanda’s journey towards a food systems transformation is well captured in Vision 2050, the National Strategy for Transformation (NST 1), and strategic plans for sectors such as agriculture, health, nutrition, commerce, and the environment. Their priorities are echoed in ongoing programs and investments of the government, its development partners, the private sector, and civil society.
Nonetheless, there are still challenges facing Rwanda’s efforts to sustain and accelerate progress along this journey. Efforts to overcome these challenges call for a deeper and more significant shift in thinking—informed by the food systems perspective—that is highlighted by stronger multi-sectoral approaches to problem-solving.
Overall findings suggest an opportunity for a tangible shift in how public policy in Rwanda approaches its food systems and how the systems contribute to the broader national transformation process. This means addressing how balances are struck—and tradeoffs are managed—between and among agriculture, nutrition, health, and the environment in the face of a climate crisis. It also means giving greater attention to the demand-side drivers in Rwanda’s food system, recognizing that singularly focused supply-side strategies rarely succeed in isolation. Finally, it means deepening the integration of policies and policy actors in the design and implementation phases of interventions that shape the food system.
We offer several recommendations to translate abstract ideas into a coherent and focused set of actions in the policy space.
1. Strengthen existing entities and mechanisms rather than create new ones.
2. Develop a national food systems transformation strategy that is integrative, multi-sectoral, and action-oriented.
3. Innovate on existing programs.
4. Allow for learning through both success and failure.
5. Invest in rigorous impact evaluation.
These actions aim to strengthen the policy environment that enables a truly broad-based food systems transformation. This enabling environment is itself an outcome of broad-based national conversations, integration across sectors, domains, and levels; and the encouragement of policy and program innovation.
Diaz-Bonilla, Eugenio; Furche, Carlos. Washington, DC 2021
De Pinto, Alessandro; Bryan, Elizabeth; Ringler, Claudia; Cenacchi, Nicola. Washington, DC; Rotterdam, Netherlands 2019
Thomas, Timothy S.; Dorosh, Paul A.; Robertson, Richard D.. Washington, DC; Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 2019
