Border carbon adjustments: Should production or consumption be taxed?
Martin, Will. Article in press
Martin, Will. Article in press
DOI : 10.1017/S1474745623000113
Impact of farmer-managed natural regeneration on resilience and welfare in Mali
Nkonya, Ephraim; Kato, Edward; Kabore, Carolyn. Article in press
Nkonya, Ephraim; Kato, Edward; Kabore, Carolyn. Article in press
DOI : 10.47852/bonviewGLCE3202698
Abstract | View
Climate change, poverty, and low environmental education have contributed to increasing vulnerability of poor farmers in Mali. This study was done to determine the impact of low-cost adaptation strategies on resilience and welfare. We analyzed the impact of a World Vision project which promoted climate-smart agricultural (CSA) practices in Mali from 2016-2019. We identified the impact using a two-stage weighted regression (2SWR). Results show that the World Vision Project significantly increased the adoption of Farmer-Managed Natural Regeneration (FMNR) practice and eventually crop yield. These intermediate impacts were translated into a significant reduction in food and nutrition insecurity and an increase in household income. The impacts of the project on child health were especially greater for farmers who participated in the project for a longer time. However, the project did not have a significant impact on the adoption of a combination of CSA practices – which could have enhanced the effectiveness of the FMNR practice. The results suggest the need for future interventions to emphasize the promotion of complementary CSA practices, which significantly increases returns to farmer investments.
Community-based conservation of freshwater resources: Learning from a critical review of the literature and case studies
Zhang, Wei; ElDidi, Hagar; Masuda, Yuta J.; Swallow, Kimberly A.; Ringler, Claudia; DeMello, Nicole; Aldous, Allison; Meinzen-Dick, Ruth Suseela. Article in press
Zhang, Wei; ElDidi, Hagar; Masuda, Yuta J.; Swallow, Kimberly A.; Ringler, Claudia; DeMello, Nicole; Aldous, Allison; Meinzen-Dick, Ruth Suseela. Article in press
DOI : 10.1080/08941920.2023.2191228
Abstract | View
Freshwater resources (FWRs) are under enormous stress due to human activities and climate change. Given the centrality of local communities in managing natural resources, community-based conservation (CBC) for FWRs (fCBC) offers a mechanism for addressing these challenges. A framework informing fCBC that incorporates unique features of FWRs (such as being fugitive resources, having increased risk of negative externalities, and sheer spatial coverage) is needed to unlock CBC’s potential in achieving environmental and developmental impacts in freshwater contexts. We critically review and synthesize existing research adapting The Nature Conservancy’s Voice, Choice and Action framework, organized around four pillars (Secure rights and fair externality consideration; Strong community capacity; Effective multi-stakeholder platforms; Sustainable livelihood and development opportunities) and two cross-cutting elements (Cultural connections; Equity and power balancing), and provide recommendations on ways to strengthen facilitation and support community empowerment in fCBC. We report on how applying the framework during a conservation planning process for fCBC projects in four geographies provides important insights for developing robust CBC programs.
Consortium of management practices in long-run improves soil fertility and carbon sequestration in drylands of semi-arid tropics
Chander, Girish; Singh, Ajay; Abbhishek, Kumar; Whitbread, Anthony M.; Jat, M. L.; Mequanint, Melesse B.; Falk, Thomas; Nagaraju, B.; Kamdi, Prasad J.; Cuba, P.; Mandapati, Roja; Anupama, G. V. . Article in press
Chander, Girish; Singh, Ajay; Abbhishek, Kumar; Whitbread, Anthony M.; Jat, M. L.; Mequanint, Melesse B.; Falk, Thomas; Nagaraju, B.; Kamdi, Prasad J.; Cuba, P.; Mandapati, Roja; Anupama, G. V. . Article in press
DOI : 10.1007/s42106-023-00249-0
Price predictors in an extended hedonic regression framework: An application to wholesale cattle markets in Ethiopia
Bachewe, Fantu Nisrane; Headey, Derek D.; Minten, Bart. 2023
Bachewe, Fantu Nisrane; Headey, Derek D.; Minten, Bart. 2023
DOI : 10.1111/agec.12751
Abstract | View
Livestock markets influence income generation for producers, but also accessibility and affordability of highly nutritious animal-sourced foods for consumers. Despite their importance, the functioning of livestock markets in lower-income countries is poorly understood and rarely studied compared to more developed countries. This study analyzes wholesale cattle markets in Ethiopia using a uniquely rich large-scale dataset covering both prices and cattle characteristics in 39 markets (in both highland and lowland areas) over a 10-year period, and hedonic regression models structured to understand both cattle price formation and seasonal and secular price dynamics. We show that cattle prices are influenced by a wide range of factors, including proxies for meat quality, religious fasting practices, climate-based seasonality but also climate shocks and availability of grazing land, competition from animal traction services, and rising consumer incomes. However, the implied effects of these factors are often significantly different in highland mixed crop-livestock areas compared to agro-pastoralist lowland areas, emphasizing the dualistic nature of cattle markets in Ethiopia. The analyses help inform the systemic challenges that Ethiopia will need to overcome to meet rising demand for beef products in the face of sustained income and population growth, as well as the adverse effects of climate change.
Techlex: A corporate practice to initiate inclusive agri-food value chain development in China
Zhou, Yunyi; Hu, Song; Chen, Kevin Z.. 2023
Zhou, Yunyi; Hu, Song; Chen, Kevin Z.. 2023
DOI : 10.22434/IFAMR2021.0097
Abstract | View
A tradeoff lies between inclusiveness and economic efficiency in meeting the Sustainable Development Goals such as poverty reduction, food security, and climate resilience. Vertical coordination between agribusinesses and farmers, in tandem with corporate social responsibility, has been perceived as an approach to surmount such tradeoff from a micro perspective. In a localized context of developing economies, the vertical coordination with farmers is reducible to a path for agribusinesses towards inclusive local value chain development (LVCD) at the grassroots level. However, few models are documented for agribusiness managers to refer to in practice. This study harnesses the Techlex Group and its pig business as a case, zooming in on the vertical coordination of agribusiness and vulnerable smallholders in lagging rural areas of China. Based on an overview of China’s pig industry and Techlex’s value chain, this study highlights three inclusive models and their alternatives for the LVCD. Though proffered in the Chinese context, those models can enrich the LVCD toolkit and be attuned to fit a different scenario.
Tomorrow's agri-food system: The connections between trade, food security, and nutrition for a sustainable diet
Laborde Debucquet, David; Piñeiro, Valeria; Swinnen, Johan. 2023
Laborde Debucquet, David; Piñeiro, Valeria; Swinnen, Johan. 2023
Abstract | View
The nexus between trade, climate change, and nutrition is important in the conversation of sustainable diets. Understanding these interactions, as well as highlighting their synergies and limiting the trade-offs between them, will give some insights on how food systems can be transformed to provide affordable healthy diets to all in a sustainable way. In this context, policy incentives could play an important role in transforming existing systems. Trade in agricultural products is an important factor both in improving global food security and its impact on global dietary trends. Trade policies should accompany each country’s sustainable diet objectives by working within existing trade rules to create better outcomes for nutrition.
Factors associated with farmers’ use of indigenous and scientific climate forecasts in Rwenzori region, Western Uganda
Nbuka, Michael Robert; Chanda, Raban; Mmopelwa, Gagoitseope; Kato, Edward; Mangheni, Margaret Najjingo; Lesolle, David; Adedoyin, Akintayo; Mujuni, Godfrey. 2023
Nbuka, Michael Robert; Chanda, Raban; Mmopelwa, Gagoitseope; Kato, Edward; Mangheni, Margaret Najjingo; Lesolle, David; Adedoyin, Akintayo; Mujuni, Godfrey. 2023
DOI : 10.1007s10113-022-01994-0
Abstract | View
Although scientific climate forecast (SF) distribution by national climate services has improved over time, farmers seem not to make good use of climate forecasts, a likely contributing factor to vulnerability to climate change. This study investigated factors associated with farmers’ use of SFs and indigenous forecasts (IFs) for agricultural use in the Rwenzori region, western Uganda. Household survey gathered data on demographic characteristics, climate information use and livelihood choices from 580 farmers. Data was analysed using the probit model. Results showed that significant factors associated with using both IFs and SFs were farm size, education, age, reception of scientific forecasts in local languages, agricultural extension access, short-mature crop access, farmer-to-farmer network and accessing forecasts through radio. This study shows that IFs were used complementarily with SFs. On the other hand, significant factors associated with using IFs only were livelihood choices such as tuber and goat production, access to government interventions on climate change adaptations, agro-ecological zone and social capital. Climate risks and climate risk perceptions negatively influenced the use of scientific forecasts. Co-production of climate information, capacity-building and active engagement of stakeholders in dissemination mechanisms can improve climate forecast use. Investments in more weather stations in various districts will therefore be a key factor in obtaining more accurate scientific forecasts and could lead to increased use of scientific climate forecasts. Governments in developing countries, the private sector, global and regional development partners should support investments in weather stations and capacity building of national meteorological systems.
Institutional and policy process for climate-smart agriculture: Evidence from Nagaland State, India
Patra, Nirmal K.; Babu, Suresh Chandra. 2023
Patra, Nirmal K.; Babu, Suresh Chandra. 2023
DOI : 10.2166/wcc.2022.024
Abstract | View
A critical global policy question is how the environmental management interventions could be repurposed to meet the sustainable development goals and their target for food security, climate protection, and environmental sustainability. A common challenge facing food systems in developing countries is to improve agricultural productivity to ensure food security for all without increasing the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from agriculture. Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) approaches help to reduce GHG emissions from agriculture and address the challenges of climate change (CC) and food insecurity. Yet, CSA lack understanding of the institutional arrangements and policy processes. This paper examines 38 aspects to assess the institutional and policy status for CC mitigation and adaptation and CSA in Nagaland, India. Furthermore, we use these aspects to develop a scale to measure the policy and institutional environment for mitigation and adaptation of CC and implementation of CSA. Nagaland is relatively in a better position in nine aspects, although it can improve. Methodologically, the scale developed in this paper and the identified factors can help study the institutional and policy status of a country, state, or region. We identify several implications for understanding CC and CSA institutions and policies for informing policy research and practice.
Advance equitable livelihoods
Neufeld, Lynnette M.; Huang, Jikun; Badiane, Ousmane; Caron, Patrick; Forsse, Lisa Sennerby. 2023
Neufeld, Lynnette M.; Huang, Jikun; Badiane, Ousmane; Caron, Patrick; Forsse, Lisa Sennerby. 2023
DOI : 10.1007/978-3-031-15703-5
Abstract | View
Food system transformation provides the opportunity to shift current trends in all forms of malnutrition, prioritizing the availability and affordability of nutritious food for all – from shifting priorities in agricultural production, to improved food systems that favor nutrition and sustainability. The task of Action Track 4 is to explore approaches to doing so that will advance equitable livelihoods for producers, businesses, workers across the food system and consumers, with a particular emphasis on addressing inequalities and power imbalances. As the Science Group for AT 4, we explore the nature of these issues, using the drivers of food systems as articulated by the High Level Panel of Experts of the UN Committee on World Food Security (HLPE 2020) as framing. Small and medium-sized producers and people who rely on food systems in rural and urban areas for livelihoods are disproportionately affected by all biophysical and environmental drivers, including soil and water resources and climate change. Unequal opportunity in access to all types of resources reduces overall production, resilience and rural transformation. Advances in innovation, technology and infrastructure have had important impacts on food production and sustainability, transportation and processing along food value chains, marketing, and, ultimately, diets, including the consumption of both nutritious and unhealthy foods. However, achievement of equitable livelihoods in food systems will require that issues of access to contextually suitable innovation and technology, inclusive of indigenous knowledge, be substantially enhanced. Many economic and political factors can be essential causes of inequality and power imbalances at the household, community, national and global levels, which may constrain the ability of food system transformation to deliver poverty reduction and sustainable, equitable livelihoods. Finally, vast evidence illustrates that several socio-cultural and demographic drivers underpin inequalities among and within societies and constrain the potential for some to benefit from actions to improve their livelihoods, particularly women, youths, the disabled, the elderly and indigenous peoples. These issues have been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic is having a significant impact on global commodity markets and trading systems, economic growth, incomes, and poverty levels, with a likely disproportionate burden falling on vulnerable communities in both urban and rural areas. This is likely to worsen inequalities and set back progress against poverty and hunger goals. To address these issues, we must transform not only food systems, but the structures and systems that continue to enable and exacerbate inequities. Drivers of food system inequities are highly interconnected, and progress in addressing one will likely require change across several. For example, globalization and trade interact with other powerful drivers, especially technology resource mobilization and demographic trends, which shape food production, distribution, and consumption. Hence, in the final section, we reflect on several factors that should be part of effective solutions for combating inequalities in food systems, including rights-based approaches. We then share a series of recommendations aimed at enhancing inclusive decision-making, protecting the livelihoods of those living in situations of vulnerability while creating opportunities, adapting institutions and policies to favor equitable food system livelihoods, and increasing investment so as to realize the potential of improved institutional and policy actions. We invite governments, businesses, and organizations to hold themselves and others to account in advancing equitable livelihoods, and open avenues towards realizing the potential of science, innovation, technology, and evidence to favor equitable livelihoods.
Water for food systems and nutrition
Ringler, Claudia; Agbonlahor, Mure Uhunamure; Baye, Kaleab; Barron, Jennie; Hafeez, Mohsin; Lundqvist, Jan; Meenakshi, J. V.; Mehta, Lyla; Mekonnen, Dawit Kelemework; Rojas-Ortuste, Franz; Tankibayeva, Aliya; Uhlenbrook, Stefan. 2023
Ringler, Claudia; Agbonlahor, Mure Uhunamure; Baye, Kaleab; Barron, Jennie; Hafeez, Mohsin; Lundqvist, Jan; Meenakshi, J. V.; Mehta, Lyla; Mekonnen, Dawit Kelemework; Rojas-Ortuste, Franz; Tankibayeva, Aliya; Uhlenbrook, Stefan. 2023
DOI : 10.1007/978-3-031-15703-5_26
Abstract | View
Access to sufficient and clean freshwater is essential for all life. Water is also essential for the functioning of food systems: as a key input into food production, but also in processing and preparation, and as a food itself. Water scarcity and pollution are growing, affecting poorer populations most, and particularly food producers. Malnutrition levels are also on the rise, and this is closely linked to water scarcity. The achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 2 and 6 are co-dependent. Solutions for jointly improving food systems and water security outcomes include: (1) strengthening efforts to retain water-based ecosystems and their functions; (2) improving agricultural water management for better diets for all; (3) reducing water and food losses beyond the farmgate; (4) coordinating water with nutrition and health interventions; (5) increasing the environmental sustainability of food systems; (6) explicitly addressing social inequities in water-nutrition linkages; and (7) improving data quality and monitoring for water-food system linkages, drawing on innovations in information and communications technology (ICT). Climate change and other environmental and societal changes make the implementation and scaling of solutions more urgent than ever.
Four ways blue foods can help achieve food system ambitions across nations
Crona, Beatrice I.; Wassénius, Emmy; Jonell, Malin; Koehn, J. Zachary; Short, Rebecca; Tigchelaar, Michelle; Daw, Tim M.; Kishore, Avinash. 2023
Crona, Beatrice I.; Wassénius, Emmy; Jonell, Malin; Koehn, J. Zachary; Short, Rebecca; Tigchelaar, Michelle; Daw, Tim M.; Kishore, Avinash. 2023
DOI : 10.1038/s41586-023-05737-x
Abstract | View
Blue foods, sourced in aquatic environments, are important for the economies, livelihoods, nutritional security and cultures of people in many nations. They are often nutrient rich, generate lower emissions and impacts on land and water than many terrestrial meats, and contribute to the health, wellbeing and livelihoods of many rural communities. The Blue Food Assessment recently evaluated nutritional, environmental, economic and justice dimensions of blue foods globally. Here we integrate these fndings and translate them into four policy objectives to help realize the contributions that blue foods can make to national food systems around the world: ensuring supplies of critical nutrients, providing healthy alternatives to terrestrial meat, reducing dietary environmental footprints and safeguarding blue food contributions to nutrition, just economies and livelihoods under a changing climate. To account for how context-specifc environmental, socio-economic and cultural aspects afect this contribution, we assess the relevance of each policy objective for individual countries, and examine associated co-benefts and trade-ofs at national and international scales. We fnd that in many African and South American nations, facilitating consumption of culturally relevant blue food, especially among nutritionally vulnerable population segments, could address vitamin B12 and omega-3 defciencies. Meanwhile, in many global North nations, cardiovascular disease rates and large greenhouse gas footprints from ruminant meat intake could be lowered through moderate consumption of seafood with low environmental impact. The analytical framework we provide also identifes countries with high future risk, for whom climate adaptation of blue food systems will be particularly important. Overall the framework helps decision makers to assess the blue food policy objectives most relevant to their geographies, and to compare and contrast the benefts and trade-ofs associated with pursuing these objectives.
Temperature and low-stakes cognitive performance
Zhang, Xin; Chen, Xi; Zhang, Xiaobo. Bonn, Germany 2023
Zhang, Xin; Chen, Xi; Zhang, Xiaobo. Bonn, Germany 2023
Abstract | View
This paper offers one of the first evidence in a developing country context that transitory exposure to high temperatures may disrupt low-stakes cognitive activities across a range of age cohorts. By matching eight years of repeated cognitive tests among all the participants in a nationally representative longitudinal survey in China with weather data according to the exact time and geographic location of their assessment, we show that exposure to a temperature above 32 °C on the test date, relative to a moderate day within 22–24 °C, leads to a sizable decline in their math scores by 0.066 standard deviations (equivalent to 0.23 years of education). Also, the effect on the math test scores becomes more pronounced as people age, especially for males and the less educated. However, the test takers living in hotter regions or those with air conditioning installed on site are less vulnerable to extreme high temperatures, indicating the role of adaptation.
Assessing residue and tillage management options for carbon sequestration in future climate change scenarios
Aditi, Kumari; Abbhishek, Kumar; Chander, Girish; Singh, Ajay; Falk, Thomas; Mequanint, Melesse B.; Cuba, Perumal; Anupama, G.; Mandpati, Roja; Nagaraji, Satish. 2023
Aditi, Kumari; Abbhishek, Kumar; Chander, Girish; Singh, Ajay; Falk, Thomas; Mequanint, Melesse B.; Cuba, Perumal; Anupama, G.; Mandpati, Roja; Nagaraji, Satish. 2023
DOI : 10.1016j.crsust.2023.100210
Abstract | View
Soil carbon depletion is a major concern for food security in drylands. The objective of this study is to test tillage with residue management under sequential and intercropping systems for carbon sequestration in semi-arid tropical drylands of India. We report the findings from a long-term field experiment (9 years) used to simulate the effect of residue and tillage management in Maize-chickpea sequential and Maize-Pigeonpea intercropping systems for the four possible future climate projections using APSIM model. These findings demonstrate a sustainable route with inclusive growth, as pledged at the UN climate change summit. A comparison of results under SSP 2.6 and 4.5 Wm−2 with SSP 8.5 shows that demand pressure from competitive marketplaces inhibits the establishment of soil carbon sinks and significantly reduces crop yields, likely due to indiscriminate chemical fertilizer use. We observed that a better decision in selecting cropping system might improve soil organic carbon content (SOC). SOC content ranging from 0.9 to 1.2% in Maize-pigeonpea intercropping and 0.85–1.1% in maize-chickpea sequential cropping systems, demonstrate good potential in the climate change mitigation exertions. Early SOC saturation (20 years) led to a decreased carbon stock in topsoil without residue addition practises. The addition of crop residues significantly increased SOC levels under both conventional and minimum tillage and created additional income for farmers. Simulation analysis showed impact of SOC changes on crop yield which remained nearly stable for 85 years. Therefore, hardy straw biomass of crops covering a large tract in dryland tropics, can be a scalable and sustainable solution to yield losses, while mitigating climate change through carbon sequestration.
Achieving sustainable food systems in a global crisis: Summary report
Bizikova, Livia; de Brauw, Alan; Rose, Mali Eber; Laborde Debucquet, David; Motsumi, Kulthoum; Murphy, Mike; Parent, Marie; Picard, Francine; Smaller, Carin. Winnipeg, Canada 2023
Bizikova, Livia; de Brauw, Alan; Rose, Mali Eber; Laborde Debucquet, David; Motsumi, Kulthoum; Murphy, Mike; Parent, Marie; Picard, Francine; Smaller, Carin. Winnipeg, Canada 2023
Abstract | View
The world is not on track to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. The prevalence of hunger and poverty—the two core goals which are the litmus test for everything else—are on the rise. This is being made worse by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, skyrocketing food, fertilizer, and energy prices, COVID-19, and climate change. In Africa, the situation is exacerbated by internal conflicts, political unrest, economic recessions, and swarms of desert locusts. To get back on track, it is critical to pursue policy pathways that encourage synergies and limit the trade-offs between hunger, poverty, nutrition, and climate change. This report summarizes the evidence-based and costed country roadmaps for effective public interventions to transform agriculture and food systems in Ethiopia, Malawi, and Nigeria in a way that ends hunger, makes diets healthier and more affordable, improves the productivity and incomes of small-scale producers and their households, and mitigates and adapts to climate change.
The financing gap is immense. This report shows that while it is possible to achieve sustainable food system transformation in Ethiopia, Malawi, and Nigeria, in the next decade, it would require an average additional public investment of USD 10 billion per year from 2023 to 2030 and targeting spending on a more effective portfolio of interventions that achieve multiple sustainable development outcomes. Of the total USD 10 billion, the donor share averages USD 5.8 billion per year, and the country share averages USD 4.2 billion per year. Importantly, comparing the financing gap between the long-term investment needed to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 2 and the short-term investment needed for emergency food assistance shows that while emergency assistance has increased in recent years, there is significant underfunding of the longer-term investment needs. The shortfall in longer-term funding increases the vulnerability to shocks, pushing the number of people affected by hunger and poverty higher. Donors should therefore complement and better link the increased allocation of emergency food assistance with increased investments in longer term agricultural development priorities to prevent future crises when the next shock hits.
The financing gap is immense. This report shows that while it is possible to achieve sustainable food system transformation in Ethiopia, Malawi, and Nigeria, in the next decade, it would require an average additional public investment of USD 10 billion per year from 2023 to 2030 and targeting spending on a more effective portfolio of interventions that achieve multiple sustainable development outcomes. Of the total USD 10 billion, the donor share averages USD 5.8 billion per year, and the country share averages USD 4.2 billion per year. Importantly, comparing the financing gap between the long-term investment needed to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 2 and the short-term investment needed for emergency food assistance shows that while emergency assistance has increased in recent years, there is significant underfunding of the longer-term investment needs. The shortfall in longer-term funding increases the vulnerability to shocks, pushing the number of people affected by hunger and poverty higher. Donors should therefore complement and better link the increased allocation of emergency food assistance with increased investments in longer term agricultural development priorities to prevent future crises when the next shock hits.
A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems
Mosnier, Aline; Javalera-Rincon, Valeria; Jones, Sarah K.; Andrew, Robbie; Bai, Zhaohai; Baker, Justin; Basnet, Shyam; Singh, Vartika. 2023
Mosnier, Aline; Javalera-Rincon, Valeria; Jones, Sarah K.; Andrew, Robbie; Bai, Zhaohai; Baker, Justin; Basnet, Shyam; Singh, Vartika. 2023
DOI : 10.1088/1748-9326/acc044
Abstract | View
The achievement of several sustainable development goals and the Paris Climate Agreement depends on rapid progress towards sustainable food and land systems in all countries. We have built a flexible, collaborative modeling framework to foster the development of national pathways by local research teams and their integration up to global scale. Local researchers independently customize national models to explore mid-century pathways of the food and land use system transformation in collaboration with stakeholders. An online platform connects the national models, iteratively balances global exports and imports, and aggregates results to the global level. Our results show that actions toward greater sustainability in countries could sum up to 1 Mha net forest gain per year, 950 Mha net gain in the land where natural processes predominate, and an increased CO2 sink of 3.7 GtCO2e yr−1 over the period 2020–2050 compared to current trends, while average food consumption per capita remains above the adequate food requirements in all countries. We show examples of how the global linkage impacts national results and how different assumptions in national pathways impact global results. This modeling setup acknowledges the broad heterogeneity of socio-ecological contexts and the fact that people who live in these different contexts should be empowered to design the future they want. But it also demonstrates to local decision-makers the interconnectedness of our food and land use system and the urgent need for more collaboration to converge local and global priorities.
Public investment in agri-food system innovation for sustainable development
Stads, Gert-Jan; Nin-Pratt, Alejandro; Wiebe, Keith D.; Sulser, Timothy B.; Benfica, Rui. 2023
Stads, Gert-Jan; Nin-Pratt, Alejandro; Wiebe, Keith D.; Sulser, Timothy B.; Benfica, Rui. 2023
DOI : 10.15302/J-FASE-2023484
Abstract | View
Research is essential for improvement of agricultural productivity, resource use and resilience, and for food systems transformation more broadly. This article analyzes the drivers of past agricultural productivity growth in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and argues that productivity is not growing fast enough to meet the needs of a global population of 10 billion by 2050. A sustainable transformation of agri-food systems in LMICs will need greater and faster technical change. Higher investment in agri-food R&D is therefore needed to accelerate productivity growth and address the social, economic, nutritional and environmental challenges facing LMICs. Greater and better-targeted investment in sustainable technologies and climate change mitigation and adaptation will be particularly important to reducing the climate change impacts on agriculture and food security in the coming decades. However, LMICs with small research systems and limited innovation capacity lack the scale and resources to effectively tackle the challenges ahead. Better coordination and a clear articulation of roles and responsibilities among national, subregional, regional and global R&D actors (both from the public and private sectors) are essential to ensuring that scarce financial, human, and infrastructure resources are optimized, duplications minimized, and synergies and complementarities enhanced.
Long-term projections of water supply and demand
Xie, Hua; Ringler, Claudia. 2023
Xie, Hua; Ringler, Claudia. 2023
Climate change, nutrition and Mongolia: A risk profile
UNICEF Mongolia; FAO; International Food Policy Research Institute. 2023
UNICEF Mongolia; FAO; International Food Policy Research Institute. 2023
Abstract | View
Mongolia is severely affected by adverse climate change impacts, including substantially higher temperatures that have contributed to increased evapotranspiration and the drying up of the country’s water resources. Moreover, the number and intensity of extreme events--especially droughts--is growing, with largest impacts on the poorer population employed in agriculture. At the same time, nutrition security remains out of reach with the co-existence of multiple forms of malnutrition, including obesity. The Mongolian pastoral culture is important to consider in balancing nutritional requirements, health risks, economics, sustainability of food production, including greenhouse gas emissions. While linkages between climate change and food security are increasingly understood, in particular the direct impacts of climate change on crop yields, associated higher food prices, and increased costs of healthy diets resulting in higher levels of malnutrition, other linkages between climate change and nutrition have been barely studied. Mongolia thus suffers from the syndemic of climate change, obesity and undernutrition, which are three co-occurring and interlinked epidemics.
A better and more comprehensive understanding of the linkages between climate change and nutrition is key to developing effective interventions to ensure that Mongolia’s population has access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food despite adverse climate outcomes. Importantly, climate change does not only affect food production but can exacerbate malnutrition by removing food and nutrients in all stages of the food value chain. Finally, given the important contribution of food systems to climate change, nutrition policy in Mongolia should more proactively consider environmental impacts.
A better and more comprehensive understanding of the linkages between climate change and nutrition is key to developing effective interventions to ensure that Mongolia’s population has access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food despite adverse climate outcomes. Importantly, climate change does not only affect food production but can exacerbate malnutrition by removing food and nutrients in all stages of the food value chain. Finally, given the important contribution of food systems to climate change, nutrition policy in Mongolia should more proactively consider environmental impacts.
Building climate-resilient food systems in East and Southeast Asia: Vulnerabilities, responses and financing
Zhou, Yunyi; Chen, Ziqi; Chen, Kevin Z.. 2023
Zhou, Yunyi; Chen, Ziqi; Chen, Kevin Z.. 2023
DOI : 10.15302/J-FASE-2023492
Abstract | View
Food system resilience to climate change is uniquely imperative for bringing Sustainable Development Goals within reach and leaving no one behind. Food systems in East and Southeast Asia are interacting with planetary boundaries and are adversely affected by extreme weather-related events. A practical question for East and Southeast Asian stakeholders is how to foster climate-resilient food systems in the face of lingering food system vulnerabilities and policy gaps. This paper reviews food system vulnerabilities and policy responses to climate change. In the policy-based review, this paper compares the economy-wide and agriculture-specific targets of low-carbon development across East and Southeast Asia. With China and member states of the Association of Southeast Asia Nations as case studies, multilevel policies in building and financing climate-resilient food systems are further synthesized. The findings confirm significant differences in agriculture-specific emission goals and public financing supports across East and Southeast Asian nations. With an objective to break practical barriers and finance climate-resilient food systems for the future, this paper recommends defining agriculture-specific greenhouse gas emission goals, reorienting the public finance scheme and enhancing mechanisms for the synergy of public and private resources.
Addressing gender inequalities and strengthening women’s agency for climate-resilient and sustainable food systems
Bryan, Elizabeth; Alvi, Munza; Huyer, Sophia; Ringler, Claudia. Nairobi, Kenya 2023
Bryan, Elizabeth; Alvi, Munza; Huyer, Sophia; Ringler, Claudia. Nairobi, Kenya 2023
Abstract | View
Climate change affects every aspect of the food system, including all nodes along agrifood value chains from production to consumption, the food environments in which people live, and outcomes, such as diets and livelihoods. Women and men often have specific roles and responsibilities within food systems, yet structural inequalities (formal and informal) limit women’s access to resources, services and agency. These inequalities affect the ways in which women and men experience and are affected by climate change. In addition to gender, other social factors are at play, such as age, education, marital status, and health and economic conditions. To date, most climate change policies, investments, and interventions do not adequately integrate gender. If climate-smart and climate-resilient interventions do not adequately take gender differences into account, they might exacerbate gender inequalities in food systems by, for instance, increasing women’s labor burden and time poverty, reducing their access to and control over income and assets, and reducing their decision-making power. At the same time, women’s contributions are critical to make food systems more resilient to the negative impacts of climate change, given their specialized knowledge, skills and roles in agrifood systems, within the household, at work and at the community level. Increasing the resilience of food systems requires going beyond addressing gendered vulnerabilities to climate change to create an enabling environment that supports gender equality and women’s empowerment, by removing structural barriers and rigid gender norms, and building equal power dynamics, as part of a process of gender -transformative change.
Report on small-scale irrigation’s contributions to increased income, economic growth and market opportunities
Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Small Scale Irrigation. 2023
Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Small Scale Irrigation. 2023
Abstract | View
Farmers, entrepreneurs, and businesses are already leading the way by expanding irrigation in response to climate variability and the growing demand for vegetables and fruit through supplemental and dry-season irrigated production. Increasing commercialization creates market opportunities throughout irrigated value chains. The Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Small Scale Irrigation (ILSSI), has supported research and partnerships with companies and producer groups to innovate technologies, share information, and develop inclusive, market-based approaches that catalyze investment in irrigation.
Report on climate change, water resources, and irrigation sustainability
Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Small Scale Irrigation. 2023
Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Small Scale Irrigation. 2023
Abstract | View
Individual farmer investments have the potential to fill the gap in public investments and be more cost-effective than large-scale irrigation. However, this development primarily occurs outside of formal systems. Water depletion and declining water quality in some areas of Africa and Southeast Asia suggest the need for careful planning and monitoring of small-scale irrigation to support resilience and avoid maladaptation. ILSSI research partners sought to support decision-makers to understand where and how water can be sustainably used by small-scale irrigators, employing and strengthening capacity for tools to manage competing demands and mitigate the risks to water security. Research partnerships also guided organizations and companies to deploy solar irrigation technologies based on biophysical and socio-economic suitability. Working with farmers, water users, and extension services, the project aimed to improve on-farming water management practices and engage communities to help safeguard water resources.
Maximizing nutrition in key food value chains of Mongolia under climate change
Dagys, Kadirbyek; Bakyei, Agipar; Tsolmon, Soninkhishig; Ringler, Claudia; Bellisario, Kristen; Fanzo, Jessica. 2023
Dagys, Kadirbyek; Bakyei, Agipar; Tsolmon, Soninkhishig; Ringler, Claudia; Bellisario, Kristen; Fanzo, Jessica. 2023
DOI : 10.1016/j.foodpol.2023.102468
Abstract | View
Mongolia’s projected warming is far above the global average and could exceed 5 °C by the end of the century. The reliance on pastoral livestock and rainfed agriculture along with its fragile ecosystems put Mongolia’s economy at risk of adverse climate change impacts, particularly from climate extreme events. Eighty percent of Mongolia’s agricultural sector is concentrated in animal husbandry with around one third of the population relying on this livelihood. Beyond livestock, food production is concentrated in few crops: wheat; potatoes; and three vegetables (cabbage, carrot, and turnip). Climate change does not only affect food production but can exacerbate malnutrition by removing food and nutrients in all stages of the food value chain. To identify perceived effects of climate change and measures to reduce climate change impacts in Mongolia's’s key food value chains, we implemented focus group discussions with 214 livestock and vegetable producers, traders, and food consumers. We also conducted 30 key informant interviews at the soum, provincial, and national levels across four agroecosystems in three provinces. Based on this community engagement analysis, we identify interventions that the government and private sector, including herders and farmers, should undertake to increase the food security and nutrition of the country’s prioritized food value chains under climate change.
Fragility, conflict, and migration
Kosec, Katrina; Laderach, Peter; and Ruckstuhl, Sandra. 2023
Kosec, Katrina; Laderach, Peter; and Ruckstuhl, Sandra. 2023
Abstract | View
Fragility, Conflict, and Migration addresses challenges to livelihood, food, and climate security faced by some of the most vulnerable populations worldwide. The Initiative focuses on building climate resilience, promoting gender equity, and fostering social inclusion. It forms part of CGIAR’s new Research Portfolio, delivering science and innovation to transform food, land, and water systems in a climate crisis.
Climate shock response and resilience of smallholder farmers in the drylands of south-eastern Zimbabwe
Nkonya, Ephraim; Kato, Edward; Msimanga, Mthabisi; Nyathi, Nomqhele. 2023
Nkonya, Ephraim; Kato, Edward; Msimanga, Mthabisi; Nyathi, Nomqhele. 2023
DOI : 10.3389/fclim.2023.890465
Abstract | View
Climatic shocks are exerting pressure on livelihoods of Zimbabwe's smallholder farmer—who irrigate only 2% of their farms. The smallholder farmers in drought-prone areas are more exposed to drought because of their limited ability to cope with shocks and their greater concentration in less favorable climatic regions. This study was done to analyze shock-response approaches, which farmers use to cope with climatic shocks. Both quantitative and qualitative approaches were used to analyze impact of World Vision Zimbabwe (WVZ) and other actors' interventions on farmer resilience to climatic shocks. Results show that mixed cropping and diversification in general were among the major strategies that pastoralists and crop farmers used to cope with climatic shocks. Crop farmers diversified types of crops as well as raising livestock. Similarly, pastoralists started growing short-term crops. Other coping strategies included intercropping, selling livestock, moving livestock to other places that did not experience drought. Both crop producers and livestock keepers engaged in nonfarm activities. About 60% of WVZ households reported that World Vision and partners helped them respond to shock and build resilience against climate change. These coping strategies had favorable impacts on household welfare. Diversification increased dietary diversity index by more than two and the increase was much greater among female-headed households than male-headed households. The WVZ intervention also significantly reduced the odds of going to bed without eating food or sleeping hungry. Non-farm income and value of assets for WVZ beneficiaries increased by about 20% and by 22% among treated female-headed households. The results show that diversification and providing grass root training of smallholder farmers increases their resilience to climate shocks.
Report on nutrition and small-scale irrigation
Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Small Scale Irrigation. 2023
Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Small Scale Irrigation. 2023
Abstract | View
The evidence on the potential for agricultural interventions to contribute to improved nutrition has grown considerably over the past decade. Numerous studies have explored both positive and negative effects of agriculture on nutrition and health. The Innovation Lab for Small Scale Irrigation has helped to fill the evidence gap on small-scale irrigation and nutrition linkages. The studies, implemented by the International Food Policy Research Institute and national partners, examine the potential of smallscale irrigation as a nutrition-sensitive investment. Through this work, more development partners are recognizing the interconnections and beginning to design irrigation investments to intentionally improve nutritional and health outcomes.
Risk contingent credit: A stakeholder engagement to inform project expansion in Kenya
Timu, Anne G.; Shee, Apurba; You, Liangzhi; Girvetz, Evan H.; Ghosh, Aniruddha; Chilambe, Pedro A.. 2023
Timu, Anne G.; Shee, Apurba; You, Liangzhi; Girvetz, Evan H.; Ghosh, Aniruddha; Chilambe, Pedro A.. 2023
Abstract | View
A large proportion of farm households in developing countries face a host of market and production risks that undermine their food security, make their income volatile, and make them hesitant to adopt new technologies or undertake new investments that might increase their long-term productivity and household welfare. Climate-related risks such as floods and droughts remain some of the most pervasive forms of production challenges. Adapting to climate variability and change is essential in safeguarding food security, ensuring economic growth, and advancing climate resilience among smallholder farmers. Recent research has shown that transferring some of the climate-related risks to the insurance market in exchange for a payout can shield the welfare of smallholders from the adverse effects of extreme weather conditions, while agricultural financing can help farmers to acquire and adopt agricultural inputs such as improved seed varieties, fertilizer, pesticides, and herbicides. However, in many developing countries, formal financial markets remain inaccessible to smallholder farmers.
Climate change, income sources, crop mix, and input use decisions: Evidence from Nigeria
Amare, Mulubrhan; Balana, Bedru. 2023
Amare, Mulubrhan; Balana, Bedru. 2023
DOI : 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2023.107892
Abstract | View
This paper combines panel data from nationally representative household-level surveys in Nigeria with long-term satellite-based spatial data on temperature and precipitation using geo-referenced information related to households. It aims to quantify the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity, income shares, crop mix, and input use decisions. We measure climate change in harmful degree days, growing degree days, and changes in precipitation using long-term (30 year) changes in temperature and precipitation anomalies during the crop calendars. We find that, controlling for other factors, a 15% (one standard deviation) increase in change in harmful degree days leads to a decrease in agricultural productivity of 5.22% on average. Similarly, precipitation change has resulted in a significant and negative impact on agricultural productivity. Our results further show that the change in harmful degree days decreases the income share from crops and nonfarm self-employment, while it increases the income share from livestock and wage employment. Examining possible transmission channels for this effect, we find that farmers change their crop mix and input use to respond to climate changes, for instance reducing fertilizer use and seed purchases as a response to increases in extreme heat. Based on our findings, we suggest policy interventions that incentivize adoption of climate-resilient agriculture, such as small-scale irrigation and livelihood diversification. We also propose targeted pro-poor interventions, such as low-cost financing options for improving smallholders' access to climate-proof agricultural inputs and technologies, and policy measures to reduce the inequality of access to livelihood capital such as land and other productive assets.
Climate-smart agriculture and food security: Cross-country evidence from West Africa
Tabe-Ojong, Martin Paul Jr.; Aihounton, Ghislain B. D.; Lokossou, Jourdain C.. 2023
Tabe-Ojong, Martin Paul Jr.; Aihounton, Ghislain B. D.; Lokossou, Jourdain C.. 2023
DOI : 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102697
Abstract | View
In the face of climate change and extreme weather events which continue to have significant impacts on agricultural production, climate-smart agriculture (CSA) has emerged as one important entry point in reducing the emission of greenhouse gases and building climate resilience while ensuring increases in agricultural productivity with ensuing implications on food and nutrition security. We examine the relationship between CSA, land productivity (yields), and food security using a survey of farm households in Ghana, Mali, and Nigeria. To understand the correlates of the adoption of these CSA practices as well as the association between CSA, yields, and food security, we use switching regressions that account for multiple endogenous treatments. We find a positive association between the adoption of CSA practices and yields. This increase in yields translate to food security as we observe a positive association between CSA and food consumption scores. Although we show modest associations between the independent use of CSA practices such as adopting climate-smart groundnut varieties, cereal-groundnut intercropping, and the use of organic fertilizers, we find that bundling these practices may lead to greater yield and food security gains. Under the different combinations, the use of climate-smart groundnut varieties exhibit the strongest association with yields and food security. We also estimate actual-counterfactual relationships where we show that the adoption of CSA practices is not only beneficial to CSA adopters but could potentially be beneficial to non-CSA adopters should they adopt. These results have implications for reaching some of the sustainable development targets, especially the twin goals of increasing agricultural productivity and maintaining environmental sustainability.
Climate analogs can catalyze cross-regional dialogs for US specialty crop adaptation
Chaudhary, Siddharth; Rajagopalan, Kirti; Kruger, Chad E.; Brady, Michael P.; Fraisse, Clyde W.; Gustafson, David I..; Hall, Sonia A.; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Melnick, Rachel L.; Reyes, Julian; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Sulser, Timothy B.. 2023
Chaudhary, Siddharth; Rajagopalan, Kirti; Kruger, Chad E.; Brady, Michael P.; Fraisse, Clyde W.; Gustafson, David I..; Hall, Sonia A.; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Melnick, Rachel L.; Reyes, Julian; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Sulser, Timothy B.. 2023
DOI : 10.1038/s41598-023-35887-x
Abstract | View
Communication theory suggests that interactive dialog rather than information transmission is necessary for climate change action, especially for complex systems like agriculture. Climate analogs—locations whose current climate is similar to a target location’s future climate—have garnered recent interest as transmitting more relatable information; however, they have unexplored potential in facilitating meaningful dialogs, and whether the way the analogs are developed could make a difference. We developed climate context-specific analogs based on agriculturally-relevant climate metrics for US specialty crop production, and explored their potential for facilitating dialogs on climate adaptation options. Over 80% of US specialty crop counties had acceptable US analogs for the mid-twenty-first century, especially in the West and Northeast which had greater similarities in the crops produced across target-analog pairs. Western counties generally had analogs to the south, and those in other regions had them to the west. A pilot dialog of target-analog pairs showed promise in eliciting actionable adaptation insights, indicating potential value in incorporating analog-driven dialogs more broadly in climate change communication.
Crop insurance and rice productivity: Evidence from Eastern India
Kumar, Anjani; Saroj, Sunil; Mishra, Ashok K.. 2023
Kumar, Anjani; Saroj, Sunil; Mishra, Ashok K.. 2023
Heat shocks, maize yields, and child height in Tanzania
Block, S.; Haile, Beliyou; You, Liangzhi; Headey, Derek D.. 2022
Block, S.; Haile, Beliyou; You, Liangzhi; Headey, Derek D.. 2022
DOI : 10.1007/s12571-021-01211-6
Abstract | View
The growing threat that climate shocks pose to food, water and nutrition security makes understanding the linkages between climate and nutrition increasingly urgent. The article demonstrates an empirical connection between rising temperatures, cereal yields, and poorer growth outcomes for children—the first time such a link has been established between climate shocks, agricultural productivity, and health.
The authors find that extreme temperature shocks can severely reduce maize yields, and that lower yields in the season prior to birth are a strong predictor of reduced height in later years, especially among boys. They also show that lower maize yields are predictive of lower body mass among women but not predictive of diarrhea or fever incidence in children. Taken together, these results suggest that maternal malnutrition during pregnancy is a key pathway linking heat shocks and agricultural production to subsequent child health.
The findings have important implications for policymakers responding to climate impacts, who must weigh whether to focus more on agricultural interventions and social protection or on public health interventions. Our research suggests the first approach could be particularly important in rural Africa.
The authors find that extreme temperature shocks can severely reduce maize yields, and that lower yields in the season prior to birth are a strong predictor of reduced height in later years, especially among boys. They also show that lower maize yields are predictive of lower body mass among women but not predictive of diarrhea or fever incidence in children. Taken together, these results suggest that maternal malnutrition during pregnancy is a key pathway linking heat shocks and agricultural production to subsequent child health.
The findings have important implications for policymakers responding to climate impacts, who must weigh whether to focus more on agricultural interventions and social protection or on public health interventions. Our research suggests the first approach could be particularly important in rural Africa.
Climate-smart agriculture and the World Trade Organization
Glauber, Joseph W.. 2022
Glauber, Joseph W.. 2022
Abstract | View
Key Points
Climate change threatens global food security and sustainable development, while many agricultural subsidies exacerbate environmental impact and agriculture’s carbon footprint around the world.
Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) may provide frameworks for policy-based incentives to reduce agriculture’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Conceptually, CSA practices could be important tools to address the impact of a growing human population on the global environment, but providing large subsidies for selected production practices that have little impact on GHG emissions could conflict with international trade laws.
Agricultural trade liberalization should be integral to any CSA approach because, globally, resources are likely to be used more efficiently.
Climate change threatens global food security and sustainable development, while many agricultural subsidies exacerbate environmental impact and agriculture’s carbon footprint around the world.
Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) may provide frameworks for policy-based incentives to reduce agriculture’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Conceptually, CSA practices could be important tools to address the impact of a growing human population on the global environment, but providing large subsidies for selected production practices that have little impact on GHG emissions could conflict with international trade laws.
Agricultural trade liberalization should be integral to any CSA approach because, globally, resources are likely to be used more efficiently.
The impact of climate change on children's nutritional status in coastal Bangladesh
Hanifi, S. M. Manzoor Ahmed; Menon, Nidhiya; Quisumbing, Agnes R.. 2022
Hanifi, S. M. Manzoor Ahmed; Menon, Nidhiya; Quisumbing, Agnes R.. 2022
DOI : 10.1016/j.socscimed.2022.114704
Modeling biophysical and socioeconomic interactions in food systems with the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)
Wiebe, Keith D.; Sulser, Timothy B.; Dunston, Shahnila; Robertson, Richard D.; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Willenbockel, Dirk. 2022
Wiebe, Keith D.; Sulser, Timothy B.; Dunston, Shahnila; Robertson, Richard D.; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Willenbockel, Dirk. 2022
DOI : 10.1016/B978-0-12-822112-9.00008-4
Budget gives short shrift to agriculture
Pathak, Himanshu; Kumar, Anjani. India 2022
Pathak, Himanshu; Kumar, Anjani. India 2022
Adaptation mitigates the negative effect of temperature shocks on household consumption
Lai, Wangyang; Li, Shanjun; Liu, Yanyan; Barwick, Panle Jia. 2022
Lai, Wangyang; Li, Shanjun; Liu, Yanyan; Barwick, Panle Jia. 2022
DOI : 10.1038/s41562-022-01315-9
Indian agriculture towards 2030
Ramesh, Ramesh; Joshi, Pramod; Khadka, Shyam. Singapore 2022
Ramesh, Ramesh; Joshi, Pramod; Khadka, Shyam. Singapore 2022
DOI : 10.1007/978-981-19-0763-0
Abstract | View
This open access book brings together varying perspectives for transformational change needed in India’s agriculture and allied sectors. Stressing the need of thinking for a post-Green Revolution future, the book promotes approaching this change through eight broad areas, indicating the policy shifts needed to meet the challenges for the coming decade (2021-2030).
The book comprises of ten contributions. Apart from the overview chapter on transformational change and the concluding chapter on pathways for 2030, there are eight thematic chapters on topics such as transforming Indian agriculture, dietary diversity for nutritive and safe food; climate crisis and risk management; water in agriculture; pests, pandemics, preparedness and biosecurity natural farming; agroecology and biodiverse futures; science, technology and innovation in agriculture; and structural reforms and governance. The writing style of these papers written by technical experts is forward-looking—not merely an analysis of what has been and why it was so, but what ought to be.
This is an essential reading for those interested in agriculture, food and nutrition sectors of India, and more so their interconnectedness.
The book comprises of ten contributions. Apart from the overview chapter on transformational change and the concluding chapter on pathways for 2030, there are eight thematic chapters on topics such as transforming Indian agriculture, dietary diversity for nutritive and safe food; climate crisis and risk management; water in agriculture; pests, pandemics, preparedness and biosecurity natural farming; agroecology and biodiverse futures; science, technology and innovation in agriculture; and structural reforms and governance. The writing style of these papers written by technical experts is forward-looking—not merely an analysis of what has been and why it was so, but what ought to be.
This is an essential reading for those interested in agriculture, food and nutrition sectors of India, and more so their interconnectedness.
Pathways for food and land use systems to contribute to global biodiversity targets
FABLE. Montpellier, France; Paris, France 2022
FABLE. Montpellier, France; Paris, France 2022
Abstract | View
The brief focuses on the achievements of the following three global biodiversity targets from the CBD post-2020 framework (CBD/WG2020/3/3), by 2030 and 2050:
1. Enhance the integrity of all ecosystems, “with an increase of at least 15% in the area, connectivity, and integrity of natural ecosystems, supporting healthy and resilient populations of all species” by 2050
2. Achieve a “net gain in the area, connectivity, and integrity of natural systems of at least 5%” by 2030
3. Retain “existing intact and wilderness areas”, halting losses by 2030 or before
The study develops the modelling of two possible future scenarios for the 20 FABLE countries: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Ethiopia, Germany, Finland, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Norway, Russia, Rwanda, South Africa, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States.
1. Enhance the integrity of all ecosystems, “with an increase of at least 15% in the area, connectivity, and integrity of natural ecosystems, supporting healthy and resilient populations of all species” by 2050
2. Achieve a “net gain in the area, connectivity, and integrity of natural systems of at least 5%” by 2030
3. Retain “existing intact and wilderness areas”, halting losses by 2030 or before
The study develops the modelling of two possible future scenarios for the 20 FABLE countries: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Ethiopia, Germany, Finland, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Norway, Russia, Rwanda, South Africa, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States.
Hierarchical modelling of small-scale irrigation: Constraints and opportunities for adoption in sub-Saharan Africa
Haile, Beliyou; Mekonnen, Dawit; Choufani, Jowel; Ringler, Claudia; Bryan, Elizabeth. 2022
Haile, Beliyou; Mekonnen, Dawit; Choufani, Jowel; Ringler, Claudia; Bryan, Elizabeth. 2022
DOI : 10.1142/S2382624X22500059
Abstract | View
Irrigation has significant potential to enhance productivity, resilience to climatic risks and nutrition security in Sub-Saharan Africa. While the focus has historically been on large-scale dam-based schemes, farmer-managed small-scale irrigation (SSI) has gained increased attention in recent years. Using data from Ethiopia, Tanzania and Ghana, we first examine patterns of adoption of different SSI technologies. Next, we employ hierarchical modelling to examine which variables are associated with observed adoption patterns and cluster effects that explain variation in irrigation adoption. We document significant cross-country variation in adoption patterns and find a positive association between plot-level use of SSI and the intensity of agricultural labor and inorganic fertilizers applied on the plot. Community-level intra-cluster correlation (ICC) is the highest in Tanzania, where gravity-fed irrigation is most common while farm-level ICC is the highest in Ethiopia where motorized technologies are more common. These results suggest the need for localized investments to ease locale-specific potential constraints. For example, easing possible liquidity constraints to acquiring motorized technologies can be more effective in Ethiopia while the construction of dams and improved conveyance systems, as well as the strengthening of community-based irrigation management (e.g., through Water User Associations (WUAs)) can be more effective in Tanzania. Further research is needed to understand pathways for selected plot-level characteristics that affect use of SSI including status of plot ownership and the gender of the plot manager.
A priority sector
Gill, Sitara; Rana, Abdul Wajid. 2022
Gill, Sitara; Rana, Abdul Wajid. 2022
Abstract | View
Pakistan is mainly an agricultural economy. According to the Economic Survey of Pakistan 2020-21, agriculture accounts for a share of 19.2 percent in GDP and constitutes a significant portion of exports at 60 percent. The agriculture sector is a major employer in the country with a bulk of 45 percent in the labour force and a source of livelihood for about 68 percent of the rural population.
On the role of water resources management to transform water, energy, food and ecosystem (WEFE) systems in transboundary river basins
Uhlenbrook, Stefan; Ringler, Claudia; Lautze, Jonathan; McCartney, Matthew; Hafeez, Mohsin. 2022
Uhlenbrook, Stefan; Ringler, Claudia; Lautze, Jonathan; McCartney, Matthew; Hafeez, Mohsin. 2022
Abstract | View
The program NEXUS Gains addresses key challenges of transforming water, energy, food and ecosystem (WEFE) systems in transboundary bread-basket basins in East and Southern Africa (Blue Nile and Limpopo basins), Central (Aral Sea basin) and South Asia (Ganges and Indus basin) in a changing world. The program particularly explores water resource management options to understand WEFE system interdependencies, trade-offs and synergies and develop more sustainable development pathways for all members society.
The presentation will discuss alternative interventions to increase water productivity different sectors (irrigation, forestry, industries) across scales ranging from farm to watershed to river basin scales. Therefore, particular attention will be given to integrated water storage management in human built and natural infrastructure in South Asia and East Africa. The implications for hydrological process and water resources dynamics and wider environmental, social and economic systems are analyzed and related policy implications are discussed considering also climate change.
The presentation will discuss alternative interventions to increase water productivity different sectors (irrigation, forestry, industries) across scales ranging from farm to watershed to river basin scales. Therefore, particular attention will be given to integrated water storage management in human built and natural infrastructure in South Asia and East Africa. The implications for hydrological process and water resources dynamics and wider environmental, social and economic systems are analyzed and related policy implications are discussed considering also climate change.
Using a large climate ensemble to assess the frequency and intensity of future extreme climate events in southern Africa
Thomas, Timothy S.; Schlosser, C. Adam; Strzepek, Kenneth M.; Robertson, Richard D.; Arndt, Channing. 2022
Thomas, Timothy S.; Schlosser, C. Adam; Strzepek, Kenneth M.; Robertson, Richard D.; Arndt, Channing. 2022
DOI : 10.3389/fclim.2022.787721
Abstract | View
This paper uses 7,200 smoothed climate change projections for each of the four emissions scenarios, together with inter-annual variation provided by detrended historical climate data to investigate changes in growing season (wettest 3 months) weather patterns from the 2020s to the 2060s for ten countries of Southern Africa. The analysis is done in 8,888 quarter-degree pixels by month. Temperature unequivocally rises in the region, but it rises relatively less along the coasts, particularly on the eastern side of the region. Precipitation has trended downward for much of the region since 1975, but relatively little change in precipitation is projected between the 2020s and the 2060s. Under the higher emissions “Paris Forever” scenario, we found that by the 2060s, the 1-in-20-year low-rainfall events will occur twice as frequently in most of the region, though it will occur less frequently in northwestern Angola. The 1-in-20-year high-rainfall events will occur 3 to 4 times as often in northeastern South Africa and twice as often in most of Angola.
Extreme events and production shocks for key crops in southern Africa under climate change
Thomas, Timothy S.; Robertson, Richard D.; Strzepek, Kenneth M.; Arndt, Channing. 2022
Thomas, Timothy S.; Robertson, Richard D.; Strzepek, Kenneth M.; Arndt, Channing. 2022
DOI : 10.3389/fclim.2022.787582
Abstract | View
Many studies have estimated the effect of climate change on crop productivity, often reflecting uncertainty about future climates by using more than one emissions pathway or multiple climate models, usually fewer than 30, and generally much fewer, with focus on the mean changes. Here we examine four emissions scenarios with 720,000 future climates per scenario over a 50-year period. We focus on the effect of low-frequency, high-impact weather events on crop yields in 10 countries of Southern Africa, aggregating from nearly 9,000 25-kilometer-square locations. In the highest emissions scenario, median maize yield is projected to fall by 9.2% for the region while the 5th percentile is projected to fall by 15.6% between the 2020s and 2060s. Furthermore, the frequency of a low frequency, 1-in-20-year low-yield event for rainfed maize is likely to occur every 3.5 years by the 2060s under the high emissions scenario. We also examine the impact of climate change on three other crops of considerable importance to the region: drybeans, groundnuts, and soybeans. Projected yield decline for each of these crops is less than for maize, but the impact varies from country to country and within each country. In many cases, the median losses are modest, but the losses in the bad weather years are generally much higher than under current climate, pointing to more frequent bouts with food insecurity for the region, unless investments are made to compensate for those production shocks.
More than a safety net: Ethiopia’s flagship public works program increases tree cover
Hirvonen, Kalle; Machado, Elia A.; Simons, Andrew M.; Taraz, Vis. 2022
Hirvonen, Kalle; Machado, Elia A.; Simons, Andrew M.; Taraz, Vis. 2022
DOI : 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102549
Abstract | View
More than one billion people worldwide receive cash or in-kind transfers from social protection programs. In low-income countries, these transfers are often conditioned on participation in labor-intensive public works to rehabilitate local infrastructure or natural resources. Despite their popularity, the environmental impacts of public works programs remain largely undocumented. We quantify the impact on tree cover of Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), one of the world’s largest and longest-running public works programs, using satellite-based data of tree cover combined with difference-in-differences and inverse probability treatment weighting methodologies. We find that the PSNP increased tree cover by 3.8% between 2005 and 2019, with larger increases in less densely populated areas and on steep-sloped terrain. As increasing tree cover is considered an important strategy to mitigate global warming, our results suggest a win–win potential for social safety net programs with an environmental component.
The role of food and land use systems in achieving India's sustainability targets
Jha, Chandan Kumar; Singh, Vartika; Stevanovi´c, Miodrag; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Mosnier, Aline. 2022
Jha, Chandan Kumar; Singh, Vartika; Stevanovi´c, Miodrag; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Mosnier, Aline. 2022
DOI : 10.1088/1748-9326/ac788a
Abstract | View
The food and land use sector is a major contributor to India's total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. On one hand, India is committed to sustainability targets in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sectors, on the other, there is little clarity whether these objectives can align with national developmental priorities of food security and environmental protection. This study fills the gap by reviewing multiple corridors to sustain the AFOLU systems through an integrated assessment framework using partial equilibrium modeling. We create three pathways that combine the shared socio-economic pathways with alternative assumptions on diets and mitigation strategies. We analyze our results of the pathways on key indicators of land-use change, GHG emissions, food security, water withdrawals in agriculture, agricultural trade and production diversity. Our findings indicate that dietary shift, improved efficiency in livestock production systems, lower fertilizer use, and higher yield through sustainable intensification can reduce GHG emissions from the AFOLU sectors up to 80% by 2050. Dietary shifts could help meet EAT-Lancet recommended minimum calorie requirements alongside meeting mitigation ambitions. Further, water withdrawals in agriculture would reduce by half by 2050 in the presence of environmental flow protection and mitigation strategies. We conclude by pointing towards specific cstrategic policy design changes that would be essential to embark on such a sustainable pathway.
Projected climate in coffee-based farming systems: Implications for crop suitability in Uganda
Mulinde, Catherine; Majaliwa, J. G. Mwanjalolo; Twinomuhangi, Revocatus; Mftumukiza, David; Waiswa, Daniel; Tumwine, Fredrick; Kato, Edward; Asiimwe, Judith; Nakyagaba, Winfred N.; Mukasa, David. 2022
Mulinde, Catherine; Majaliwa, J. G. Mwanjalolo; Twinomuhangi, Revocatus; Mftumukiza, David; Waiswa, Daniel; Tumwine, Fredrick; Kato, Edward; Asiimwe, Judith; Nakyagaba, Winfred N.; Mukasa, David. 2022
DOI : 10.1007/s10113-022-01930-2
Exploring transformational adaptation strategy through agricultural policy reform in the Philippines
Pradesha, Angga; Robinson, Sherman; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Perez, Nicostrato D.; Thomas, Timothy S.. 2022
Pradesha, Angga; Robinson, Sherman; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Perez, Nicostrato D.; Thomas, Timothy S.. 2022
DOI : 10.1007/s12571-022-01299-4
Agroecologically-conducive policies: A review of recent advances and remaining challenges
Place, Frank; Nierderle, Paulo; Sinclair, Fergus; Estrada Carmona, Natalia; Guéneau, Stéphane; Gitz, Vincent; Alpha, Arlene; Sabourin, Eric; Hainzelin, Etienne. Bogor, Indonesia 2022
Place, Frank; Nierderle, Paulo; Sinclair, Fergus; Estrada Carmona, Natalia; Guéneau, Stéphane; Gitz, Vincent; Alpha, Arlene; Sabourin, Eric; Hainzelin, Etienne. Bogor, Indonesia 2022
DOI : 10.17528/cifor-icraf/008593
Abstract | View
The debate concerning the need for significant transformations towards more nutrition oriented, environmentally sustainable and inclusive food systems has generated increased attention towards agroecology in recent years. Literature on this subject has already demonstrated that transitions to agroecology will be context specific, as countries and regions have distinctive visions for the future of agriculture and food systems, unique starting points, and will therefore define their own transition pathways. This paper assesses how different policies (consumer oriented; producer oriented; market and food environment oriented; macro and trade oriented; and cross-cutting policies) can affect incentives for agroecology. It provides examples of policies and related actions taken by national, regional and city governments that intend to promote one or more agroecological principles. The assessment reveals that, until now, few countries have embarked on a broad set of reforms with sustained commitments. Many of these policies are new, weakly institutionalized and supported by limited budgets, making it difficult to analyze their actual effects. Because of this, there is very little research on how effective they have been in promoting agroecological transitions or the objectives that agroecology aims to achieve. Consequently, the paper’s main recommendation is for research to fill this gap so that future policy formulation and implementation can be better informed by experiences from different countries.
Agricultural technologies in India: A review
Joshi, P. K.; Varshney, Deepak. Mumbai, India 2022
Joshi, P. K.; Varshney, Deepak. Mumbai, India 2022
Abstract | View
Agriculture sector in India is a primary source of livelihood for a majority of the population. Low and stagnant income in the sector remains a focal point of policy debate in India. The most prominent pathways to enhance farmers’ income is the adoption of improved agricultural technologies. This study documents the current state of agriculture technologies in India. The main objectives are: (a) What are the adoption levels of improved technologies and their impact on farmers’ income, agricultural production, natural resources and environment? (b) What are the constraints in up-scaling improved technologies and the conditions for success of their adoption? (c) What are the rate of return on agriculture research and extension system? and (d) What can be learnt from the global perspective on agriculture research and extension services?
Research priorities for global food security under extreme events
Mehrabi, Zia; Delzeit, Ruth; Ignaciuk, Adriana; Lever, Christian; Braich, Ginni; You, Liangzhi. 2022
Mehrabi, Zia; Delzeit, Ruth; Ignaciuk, Adriana; Lever, Christian; Braich, Ginni; You, Liangzhi. 2022
DOI : 10.1016/j.oneear.2022.06.008
Abstract | View
Extreme events, such as those caused by climate change, economic or geopolitical shocks, and pest or disease epidemics, threaten global food security. The complexity of causation, as well as the myriad ways that an event, or a sequence of events, creates cascading and systemic impacts, poses significant challenges to food systems research and policy alike. To identify priority food security risks and research opportunities, we asked experts from a range of fields and geographies to describe key threats to global food security over the next two decades and to suggest key research questions and gaps on this topic. Here, we present a prioritization of threats to global food security from extreme events, as well as emerging research questions that highlight the conceptual and practical challenges that exist in designing, adopting, and governing resilient food systems. We hope that these findings help in directing research funding and resources toward food system transformations needed to help society tackle major food system risks and food insecurity under extreme events.
A climate change modelling framework for financial stress testing in Southern Africa
Anvari, Vafa; Arndt, Channing; Hartley, Faaiqa; Makrelov, Konstantin; Strezepek, Kenneth; Thomas, Timothy S.; Gabriel, Sherwin; Merven, Bruno. 2022
Anvari, Vafa; Arndt, Channing; Hartley, Faaiqa; Makrelov, Konstantin; Strezepek, Kenneth; Thomas, Timothy S.; Gabriel, Sherwin; Merven, Bruno. 2022
Abstract | View
Central banks play a critical role in the economy, with policy levers that influence and are influenced by climate change. An important part of central bank interventions is conducting climate-related stress tests and scenario analysis to increase awareness in the financial sector of the effects of climate change, improve the integration of climate-related risks into financial companies’ decisions, identify important data gaps, and start building capacity to develop more advanced and accurate climate scenarios. These exercises, however, are a challenge to central banks and financial companies because of their complexity and the new data and tools required for scenario development and analysis. The development of scenarios for climate-related stress testing requires the integration of different model frameworks to assess the impacts of climate change, translate these impacts into macroeconomic scenarios, and evaluate the subsequent financial sector outcomes. This integration requires multidisciplinary skills such as the joint work of energy system modellers, climate scientists and macroprudential experts. This paper provides an overview of the modelling frameworks available for assessing climate change impacts in South Africa, covering both local and global models. This should assist financial institutions and regulators with developing partnerships to build scenarios and assess the impact of climate-related risks. Gaps in current models and modelling for financial stress testing are also identified as considerations for future research.
Agrifood market participation and household livelihood diversification: Evidence from Vietnam
Takeshima, Hiroyuki. 2022
Takeshima, Hiroyuki. 2022
DOI : 10.1353/jda.2022.0073
Balancing national economic policy outcomes for sustainable development
Basheer, Mohammed; Nechifor, Victor; Calzadilla, Alvaro; Ringler, Claudia; Hulme, David; Harou, Julien J.. 2022
Basheer, Mohammed; Nechifor, Victor; Calzadilla, Alvaro; Ringler, Claudia; Hulme, David; Harou, Julien J.. 2022
DOI : 10.1038/s41467-022-32415-9
Abstract | View
The 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) aim at jointly improving economic, social, and environmental outcomes for human prosperity and planetary health. However, designing national economic policies that support advancement across multiple Sustainable Development Goals is hindered by the complexities of multi-sector economies and often conflicting policies. To address this, we introduce a national-scale design framework that can enable policymakers to sift through complex, non-linear, multi-sector policy spaces to identify efficient policy portfolios that balance economic, social, and environmental goals. The framework combines economy-wide sustainability simulation and artificial intelligence-driven multiobjective, multi-SDG policy search and machine learning. The framework can support multi-sector, multi-actor policy deliberation to screen efficient policy portfolios. We demonstrate the utility of the framework for a case study of Egypt by identifying policy portfolios that achieve efficient mixes of poverty and inequality reduction, economic growth, and climate change mitigation. The results show that integrated policy strategies can help achieve sustainable development while balancing adverse economic, social, and political impacts of reforms.
Transformative adaptation and implications for transdisciplinary climate change research
Hellin, Jon; Amarnath, Giriraj; Challinor, Andrew; Fisher, Eleanor; Girvetz, Evan; Guo, Zhe; Hodur, Janet; Loboguerro, Ana Maria; Pacillo, Grazia; Rose, Sabrina; Schutz, Tonya; Valencia, Lina; You, Liangzhi. 2022
Hellin, Jon; Amarnath, Giriraj; Challinor, Andrew; Fisher, Eleanor; Girvetz, Evan; Guo, Zhe; Hodur, Janet; Loboguerro, Ana Maria; Pacillo, Grazia; Rose, Sabrina; Schutz, Tonya; Valencia, Lina; You, Liangzhi. 2022
DOI : 10.1088/2752-5295/ac8b9d
Abstract | View
The severity of the climate challenge requires a change in the climate response, from an incremental to a more far-reaching and radical transformative one. There is also a need to avoid maladaptation whereby responses to climate risk inadvertently reinforce vulnerability, exposure and risk for some sections of society. Innovative technological interventions are critical but enabling social, institutional and governance factors are the actual drivers of the transformative process. Bringing about this transformation requires inter- and transdisciplinary approaches, and the embracing of social equity. In this Perspective, we unpack what this means for agricultural research and, based on our collective experience, we map out a research agenda that weaves different research components into a holistic and transformative one. We do not offer best practice, but rather reflections on how agricultural research can more readily contribute to transformative adaptation, along with the personal and practical challenges of designing and implementing such an agenda.
Environmental sustainability of food systems, global food security and trade
Glauber, Joseph W.; Laborde Debucquet, David; Piñeiro, Valeria; Elverdin, Pablo; Illescas, Nelson. 2022
Glauber, Joseph W.; Laborde Debucquet, David; Piñeiro, Valeria; Elverdin, Pablo; Illescas, Nelson. 2022
Abstract | View
The challenges faced by the global agri-food system are very complex. It must not only provide a sufficient nutritious food supply to meet growing demand, but it also requires managing environmental issues such as the impact of climate change, the pressure on natural resources, and the ecological sustainability of agricultural practices.
Global action for climate finance and investments for agrifood system transformation
Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio; Echeverria, Ruben; Vos, Rob. 2022
Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio; Echeverria, Ruben; Vos, Rob. 2022
Abstract | View
The transformation of food systems is crucial for achieving multiple global objectives, including the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the climate change mitigation, adaptation and resilience goals established in the 2015 Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement calls for “making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development.” To meet national and global SDG-related and climate goals, existing flows of funds must be reoriented, and support mobilised for a broad range of investments and interventions, including mitigation and adaptation activities, by all food system actors. The brief proposes seven recommendations for the Group of 20 (G20) to act upon: (1) establish effective incentive frameworks to attract food-system finance; (2) improve regulatory frameworks to steer food consumption and production decisions towards sustainability and healthy diets; (3) encourage more strategic use of international development funds; (4) repurposing of existing agricultural support for the transformation of food systems; (5) promote climate-positive investment with funding from the commercial banking system and capital markets; (6) promote access of SMEs and smallholders to finance from commercial banking system and capital markets and (7) provide support to countries in aligning with the United Nations Forum on Sustainability Standards (UNFSS) National Pathways with the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Foresighting future climate change impacts on fisheries and aquaculture in Vietnam
Tran, Nhuong; Chan, Chin Yee; Aung, Yee Mon; Bailey, Conner; Akester, Michael; Cao, Quyen Le; Trinh, Tu Quang; Hoang, Cuong Van; Sulser, Timothy B.; Wiebe, Keith D.. 2022
Tran, Nhuong; Chan, Chin Yee; Aung, Yee Mon; Bailey, Conner; Akester, Michael; Cao, Quyen Le; Trinh, Tu Quang; Hoang, Cuong Van; Sulser, Timothy B.; Wiebe, Keith D.. 2022
DOI : 10.3389/fsufs.2022.829157
Abstract | View
The Vietnamese fisheries sector, including both marine fisheries and aquaculture, has made spectacular progress in recent years, becoming one of the top seafood producing and exporting countries in the world. Looking forward, development goals of this sector must address challenges associated with climate change, including changing distribution of commercially important marine species such as tuna and disruptions to land-based aquaculture production systems. This study investigates the prospective climate change impacts on Vietnam's fisheries sector, focusing on four key commodities including capture fisheries (tuna), freshwater aquaculture (pangasius catfish and tilapia), and brackish water aquaculture (shrimp). The extent of impact varies, but climate change represents a potentially significant threat to sustainable production in each production system. Producers, policy makers, and other stakeholders need to plan for and adapt to climate change to ensure the sustainable development of Vietnam's fisheries sector.
Time management governs climate resilience and productivity in the coupled rice–wheat cropping systems of eastern India
Kishore, Avinash; McDonald, Andrew J.; Keil, Alwin; Srivastava, Amit; Craufurd, Peter; Kumar, Virender. 2022
Kishore, Avinash; McDonald, Andrew J.; Keil, Alwin; Srivastava, Amit; Craufurd, Peter; Kumar, Virender. 2022
DOI : 10.1038/s43016-022-00549-0
Abstract | View
India will need to produce 30% more wheat by 2050, and these gains must principally come from intensification in eastern India where low productivity is common. Through a dense network of on-farm surveys for the rice–wheat system in this region, we show that contemporary wheat sowing dates have a central influence on achieved and attainable yields, superseding all other crop management, soil and varietal factors. We estimate that untapped wheat production potential will increase by 69% with achievable adjustments to wheat sowing dates without incurring undesirable trade-offs with rice productivity, irrigation requirements or profitability. Our findings also indicate that transformative gains in wheat yields are only possible in eastern India if rice and wheat are managed as a coupled system. Steps taken to ‘keep time’ through better management of the annual cropping calendar will pay dividends for food security, profitability and climate resilience now and as a foundation for adaptation to progressive climate change.
In pursuit of more fruitful food systems
Sulser, Timothy B.; Wiebe, Keith D.; Gustafson, David; Asseng, Senthold; Fraisse, Clyde; Guan, Kaiyu. 2022
Sulser, Timothy B.; Wiebe, Keith D.; Gustafson, David; Asseng, Senthold; Fraisse, Clyde; Guan, Kaiyu. 2022
DOI : 10.1007/s11367-022-02101-5
Abstract | View
Recent analyses suggest that global fruit and vegetable (F&V) production will need to increase by 50–150% by 2050 to achieve sustainable and healthy diets for all 10 billion people expected to inhabit the world (Stratton et al. 2021). Meeting this increased demand will be very difficult due to numerous factors, including the scarcity of labor, dwindling water supplies for irrigation, and climate change. We have just completed a 5-year project (Agriculture and Food Systems Institute 2022) that began to tackle this daunting challenge: fruit and vegetable supply chains: climate adaptation and mitigation opportunities. We identified and tested climate adaptation and mitigation strategies in these supply chains through the development and application of a novel integrated methodology that included climate, crop, economic, and life cycle assessment (LCA) models, following protocols developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) (https://agmip.org/). Consistent with AgMIP standards, our modeling tools are for open use and are broadly applicable to other crops and regions, subject to normal input data requirements.
Global investment gap in agricultural research and innovation to meet Sustainable Development Goals for hunger and Paris Agreement climate change mitigation
Rosegrant, Mark W.; Sulser, Timothy B.; Wiebe, Keith D.. 2022
Rosegrant, Mark W.; Sulser, Timothy B.; Wiebe, Keith D.. 2022
DOI : 10.3389/fsufs.2022.965767
Abstract | View
This paper provides estimates of the global investment gap in agricultural research and development (R&D) and innovation. The investment gap is defined as the additional annual investments required to end hunger in 2030 (Sustainable Development Goal SDG2) and to put agriculture on the pathway to the Paris Agreement target for 1.5◦C increase over pre-industrial temperature levels. The investment gap is projected relative to a reference scenario with projections to 2030 using an integrated economic-biophysical model of the global agri-food system. In addition to showing the impacts on hunger, the modeling results are used to simulate the effect of the gap-closing investments on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture. In addition to projecting the impacts of overall investment in agricultural R&D on productivity and environmental outcomes, the analysis assesses the contributions of different types of innovative technologies and farming systems to the environmental outcomes, especially technologies that contribute to sustainability outcomes. Sustainability-oriented technologies and management practices examined include conservation tillage, nitrogen-use efficiency, improved livestock management, and other climate-smart technologies. The projected results show that additional agricultural R&D investments of USD 4 billion per year above baseline investments together with USD 6.5 billion per year invested in technical climate-smart options, can reduce hunger to 5% globally and achieve 2030 GHG emission reductions consistent with the Paris Agreement 2◦C and 1.5◦C pathways to 2030.
Current guidance underestimates risk of global environmental change to food security
Myer, Samuel; Fanzo, Jessica; Wiebe, Keith D.; Huybers, Peter; Smith, Matthew. 2022
Myer, Samuel; Fanzo, Jessica; Wiebe, Keith D.; Huybers, Peter; Smith, Matthew. 2022
DOI : 10.1136/bmj-2022-071533
Abstract | View
Over the past several years many global reports and scientific articles have offered guidance to policy makers on how climate change is likely to affect global food security. But these publications paint an incomplete, and likely overly optimistic, picture of the threat that anthropogenic environmental change poses to food production, nutrition, and health. Projected effects of climate change on food security are often based on crop models that incorporate only a few dimensions of climate related biophysical change—usually characterized by changes in temperature and precipitation. Omitted from these mathematical models are other biophysical changes related to a disrupted climate system and, importantly, other anthropogenic biophysical changes that are also likely to affect the quality or quantity of food the world can produce.
HER Plus Harnessing gender and social equality for resilience in agrifood systems
de Haan, Nicoline C.; Gilligan, Daniel; Cole, Steve; Puskur, Ranjitha; Roy, Shalini; Kosec, Katrina. 2022
de Haan, Nicoline C.; Gilligan, Daniel; Cole, Steve; Puskur, Ranjitha; Roy, Shalini; Kosec, Katrina. 2022
2022 Global hunger index: Food systems transformation and local governance
Resnick, Danielle; von Grebmer, Klaus; Bernstein, Jill; Wiemers, Miriam; Reiner, Laura; Bachmeier, Marilena. Bonn, Germany; Dublin, Ireland 2022
Resnick, Danielle; von Grebmer, Klaus; Bernstein, Jill; Wiemers, Miriam; Reiner, Laura; Bachmeier, Marilena. Bonn, Germany; Dublin, Ireland 2022
Abstract | View
As the 2022 Global Hunger Index (GHI) shows, the global hunger situation is undeniably grim. The overlapping crises facing the world are exposing the weaknesses of food systems, from global to local, and highlighting the vulnerability of populations around the world to hunger.
Global Progress against Hunger Is at a Near Standstill
Global progress against hunger has largely stagnated in recent years. The 2022 GHI score for the world is considered moderate, but at 18.2, it shows only a slight decline from the 2014 score of 19.1. Indeed, one indicator used in the GHI, the prevalence of undernourishment, shows that the share of people who lack regular access to sufficient calories is increasing. As many as 828 million people were under nourished in 2021, representing a reversal of more than a decade of progress against hunger. Without a major shift, neither the world as a whole nor approximately 46 countries are projected to achieve even low hunger as measured by the GHI by 2030.
A Barrage of Crises Is Undermining the Fight against Hunger
The situation is likely to worsen in the face of the current barrage of overlapping global crises—conflict, climate change, and the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic—all of which are powerful drivers of hunger. The war in Ukraine has further increased global food, fuel, and fertilizer prices and has the potential to significantly worsen hunger in 2023 and beyond. These crises come on top of underlying factors such as poverty, inequality, inadequate governance, poor infrastructure, and low agricultural productivity that contribute to chronic hunger and vulnerability. Globally and in many countries and regions, current food systems are inadequate to the task of addressing these challenges and ending hunger.
Global Progress against Hunger Is at a Near Standstill
Global progress against hunger has largely stagnated in recent years. The 2022 GHI score for the world is considered moderate, but at 18.2, it shows only a slight decline from the 2014 score of 19.1. Indeed, one indicator used in the GHI, the prevalence of undernourishment, shows that the share of people who lack regular access to sufficient calories is increasing. As many as 828 million people were under nourished in 2021, representing a reversal of more than a decade of progress against hunger. Without a major shift, neither the world as a whole nor approximately 46 countries are projected to achieve even low hunger as measured by the GHI by 2030.
A Barrage of Crises Is Undermining the Fight against Hunger
The situation is likely to worsen in the face of the current barrage of overlapping global crises—conflict, climate change, and the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic—all of which are powerful drivers of hunger. The war in Ukraine has further increased global food, fuel, and fertilizer prices and has the potential to significantly worsen hunger in 2023 and beyond. These crises come on top of underlying factors such as poverty, inequality, inadequate governance, poor infrastructure, and low agricultural productivity that contribute to chronic hunger and vulnerability. Globally and in many countries and regions, current food systems are inadequate to the task of addressing these challenges and ending hunger.
The flip side: Bumps ahead on the EV road
Kamar, Abul; Srivastava, Ajay; Jadhav, Kishor. 2022
Kamar, Abul; Srivastava, Ajay; Jadhav, Kishor. 2022
Elevating the role of water resilience in food system dialogues
Ringler, Claudia; Matthews, Nathanial; Dalton, James; Barclay, Holly; Barron, Jennie; Garrick, Dustin. 2022
Ringler, Claudia; Matthews, Nathanial; Dalton, James; Barclay, Holly; Barron, Jennie; Garrick, Dustin. 2022
DOI : 10.1016/j.wasec.2022.100126
Abstract | View
Ensuring resilient food systems and sustainable healthy diets for all requires much higher water use, however, water resources are finite, geographically dispersed, volatile under climate change, and required for other vital functions including ecosystems and the services they provide. Good governance for resilient water resources is a necessary precursor to deciding on solutions, sourcing finance, and delivering infrastructure. Six attributes that together provide a foundation for good governance to reduce future water risks to food systems are proposed. These attributes dovetail in their dual focus on incorporating adaptive learning and new knowledge, and adopting the types of governance systems required for water resilient food systems. The attributes are also founded in the need to greater recognise the role natural, healthy ecosystems play in food systems. The attributes are listed below and are grounded in scientific evidence and the diverse collective experience and expertise of stakeholders working across the science-policy interface: Adopting interconnected systems thinking that embraces the complexity of how we produce, distribute, and add value to food including harnessing the experience and expertise of stakeholders s; adopting multi-level inclusive governance and supporting inclusive participation; enabling continual innovation, new knowledge and learning, and information dissemination; incorporating diversity and redundancy for resilience to shocks; ensuring system preparedness to shocks; and planning for the long term. This will require food and water systems to pro-actively work together toward a socially and environmentally just space that considers the water and food needs of people, the ecosystems that underpin our food systems, and broader energy and equity concerns.
The lost opportunity from insufficient pollinators for global food supplies and human health
Smith, Matthew R.; Mueller, Nathaniel D.; Springmann, Marco; Sulser, Timothy; Garibaldi, Lucas A.; Gerber, James; Wiebe, Keith D.; Myers, Samuel S.. 2022
Smith, Matthew R.; Mueller, Nathaniel D.; Springmann, Marco; Sulser, Timothy; Garibaldi, Lucas A.; Gerber, James; Wiebe, Keith D.; Myers, Samuel S.. 2022
DOI : 10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00265-0
Abstract | View
Animal pollination supports agricultural production for many healthy foods, such as fruits, vegetables, nuts, and legumes, which provide key nutrients and protect against non-communicable diseases. Today, most crops receive suboptimal pollination because of reduced abundance and diversity of pollinating insects. We modelled the effects on current global human health from insufficient pollination by quantifying the pollinator-related crop yield gap and lost consumption of pollination-dependent foods by country and region, after accounting for global trade, economic behaviours, and food waste. We also estimated the lost economic value of crop production for the following three diverse case-study countries: Honduras, Nepal, and Nigeria.
A novel seasonal-spatial integrated model for improving the economic-environmental performance of crop production
Li, Man; Guo, Zhe; Zhang, Wei. 2022
Li, Man; Guo, Zhe; Zhang, Wei. 2022
DOI : 10.1016/j.mex.2022.101906
Abstract | View
Excess agricultural nitrogen, mainly from manure and chemical fertilizers, is a primary source of nutrient pollution and presents serious environmental threats to natural ecosystems and human health. Improvements in nitrogen-use efficiency in crop production are critical for addressing the triple challenge of food insecurity, environmental degradation, and climate change. Approaches such as sustainable intensification that stress technological innovations have received the most attention. But science-based cropland use planning, a promising complementary approach, has so far been largely overlooked. Here we develop a spatially integrated economic-ecological modeling method to assess this previously unexplored potential for improving the economic-environmental performance of crop production by examining the seasonal and spatial implications of cropland and fertilizer use in Bangladesh. In doing so, we aim to make the modeling method accessible to researchers and practitioners interested in achieving the dual goal of food production and environmental sustainability for countries that are characterized by seasonal and spatial variations in crop mix and cropping practices.
Repositioning agricultural support policies for achieving China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal
Feng, Xialong; Zhang, Yumei; Wu, Zongyi; Fan, Shenggen; Chen, Kevin Z.. 2022
Feng, Xialong; Zhang, Yumei; Wu, Zongyi; Fan, Shenggen; Chen, Kevin Z.. 2022
Abstract | View
Agrifood systems are both a contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and an important sector for achieving China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal and mitigating climate change. Rising global temperatures and frequent extreme weather have greatly weakened agricultural production capacity (IPCC, 2021). The need to mitigate climate change by reducing GHG emissions has global consensus. In 2020, the Chinese government made an important commitment toward peaking its carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. Under China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal, the contribution of agrifood systems to GHG emissions reduction cannot be ignored. According to estimates by the Academy of Global Food Economics and Policy (AGFEP) at China Agricultural University (AGFEP, 2021), GHG emissions from agrifood systems reached 1.09 billion metric tons (t) of CO2eq in 2018, accounting for 8.2 percent of total national GHG emissions. While ensuring food security as the top national priority, the combined measures can reduce GHG emissions by 47 percent by 2060, compared to 2020 levels; these measures include improving agricultural technologies, reducing food loss and waste, and shifting dietary patterns. When coupled with the carbon sequestration of land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), agrifood systems can contribute significantly to achieving carbon neutrality (AGFEP, 2021).
China and global food policy report 2022: Reforming agricultural support policy for transforming agrifood systems
Academy of Global Food Economics and Policy, China Agricultural University (AGFEP); China Academy for Rural Development, Zhejiang University (CARD); Centre for International Food and Agricultural Economics, Nanjing Agricultural University (CIFAE); Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (IAED); International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). 2022
Academy of Global Food Economics and Policy, China Agricultural University (AGFEP); China Academy for Rural Development, Zhejiang University (CARD); Centre for International Food and Agricultural Economics, Nanjing Agricultural University (CIFAE); Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (IAED); International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). 2022
Abstract | View
Remarkable achievements in global food security have been made in the past several decades. Food production has grown significantly and outpaced the population growth. Household food consumption has increased, and undernourishment has declined dramatically. However, due to multiple risks and threats such as climate change, COVID-19, environmental degradation, trade frictions, and regional conflicts, global food security and nutrition face unprecedented challenges. In fact, the number of hungry people in the world has been increasing since 2015, with more than 800 million people now suffering from hunger. After decades of development, China has ended hunger. In the new development stage, the Chinese government has proposed even higher development goals; these include Healthy China 2030, Rural Revitalization, Ecological Civilization, Common Prosperity and Carbon Neutrality.
Sustaining natural resources in African agriculture: What have we learned in the past two decades?
Place, Frank. Singapore 2022
Place, Frank. Singapore 2022
DOI : 10.1007/978-981-19-5542-6_11
Abstract | View
Calls for increased attention to natural resource management (NRM) in African agriculture have been around for many decades. They became more vocal around the turn of the century following decades of poor yield growth and emerging data showing concerns about land quality and productivity. In recent years, these intensified further with the specter of climate change and continuing rural population growth challenging agricultural systems on the continent. Researchers have responded to these challenges, advancing research frameworks and hypotheses, deploying more research tools, and conducting more studies. However, it is unclear that all this response has significantly advanced our state of knowledge on the extent and nature of land degradation in agricultural land, the particular practices that work in different socioeconomic contexts, and how best to induce their uptake by households facing different priorities and constraints. This chapter will motivate this conclusion and offer options for moving forward in some of these topical areas.
Health gender gap in Uganda: do weather effects and water play a role?
Amondo, Emily Injete; Kirui, Oliver K.; Mirzabaev, Alisher; kirui. 2022
Amondo, Emily Injete; Kirui, Oliver K.; Mirzabaev, Alisher; kirui. 2022
DOI : 10.1186/s12939-022-01769-3
Abstract | View
Vulnerabilities of men and women to adverse health effects due to weather variability and climate change are not equal. Uganda was among the countries in the world most affected by extreme weather events during the last decade. However, there is still limited gendered empirical evidence on the links between weather variability and health and the possible pathways through which these health effects occur. Therefore, this study analyses the effect of weather variability on illness, and the extent to which water collection ‘time burden’ mediates the relationship between weather anomalies and illness among men and women of working age in Uganda. The study also quantifies the health inequalities to be eliminated if resources are equalized.
Innovative finance mechanisms to protect water resources in the Xin’an River Basin
Fan, Mingyuan; Chen, Kevin; Cardascia, Silvia; Fischer, Christian. Manila, Philippines 2022
Fan, Mingyuan; Chen, Kevin; Cardascia, Silvia; Fischer, Christian. Manila, Philippines 2022
DOI : 10.22617/BRF220520-2
Abstract | View
This brief shows how innovative financing can help cut agricultural pollution in the People's Republic of China’s Xin'an River Basin by plugging funding gaps for nature-based solutions that also mitigate against climate change. It highlights the importance of the basin that supplies drinking water to 10 million people and explains how insufficient financing is limiting the effectiveness of existing ecological compensation schemes. Offering policy recommendations to incentivize environmental protections, the brief details how two ADB-backed funds can be scaled up to support efforts by farmers and small businesses to make the watershed green, sustainable, and inclusive.
Long-term projections of food production and demand
Wiebe, Keith D.; Sulser, Timothy; Cenacchi, Nicola. 2022
Wiebe, Keith D.; Sulser, Timothy; Cenacchi, Nicola. 2022
Repurposing global agricultural support
Glauber, Joseph W.; Laborde, David. Washington D.C. 2022
Glauber, Joseph W.; Laborde, David. Washington D.C. 2022
Abstract | View
Key Points
Countries around the world provide billions of dollars every year for agricultural support, with most of the benefits accruing to middle- and high-income farmers.
Critics of agricultural subsidies may prefer a total global rollback, but this is widely believed to be politically untenable. In response, many have proposed repurposing subsidies to serve climate and nutrition goals.
Repurposing subsidies to focus on either nutrition or climate change may positively affect one orboth objectives, but the overall effects are surprisingly small and can involve outcomes that benefit one objective at the expense of the other.
Countries around the world provide billions of dollars every year for agricultural support, with most of the benefits accruing to middle- and high-income farmers.
Critics of agricultural subsidies may prefer a total global rollback, but this is widely believed to be politically untenable. In response, many have proposed repurposing subsidies to serve climate and nutrition goals.
Repurposing subsidies to focus on either nutrition or climate change may positively affect one orboth objectives, but the overall effects are surprisingly small and can involve outcomes that benefit one objective at the expense of the other.
Transforming Food Systems
Mosnier, Aline; Springmann, Marco; Fan, Shenggen. Nairobi, Kenya 2022
Mosnier, Aline; Springmann, Marco; Fan, Shenggen. Nairobi, Kenya 2022
Abstract | View
Food systems are major contributors to climate change and other environmental problems, such as land-use change and biodiversity loss, depletion of freshwater resources, and pollution of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems through nitrogen and phosphorus run-off from fertilizer and manure application (Cordell and White 2014; Crippa et al. 2021; Diaz and Rosenberg 2008; Foley et al. 2005; Newbold et al. 2015; Robertson and Vitousek 2009; Shiklomanov and Rodda 2004; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] 2019; Wada et al. 2010; Willett et al. 2019).
Adapting Philippine agriculture to climate change
Rosegrant, Mark W.; Sombilla, Mercedita A.; Perez, Nicostrato D.; Pradesha, Angga; Thomas, Timothy S.. 2022
Rosegrant, Mark W.; Sombilla, Mercedita A.; Perez, Nicostrato D.; Pradesha, Angga; Thomas, Timothy S.. 2022
Abstract | View
This collection of essays provides a wealth of information and analysis about the Philippine economy and the role of agriculture and economic policy in it. The Philippine experience has been quite different from the highly successful Asian economies, with a long period of low growth until the turn of the century and only then greater success. The authors cover not only the Philippine experience but also place it in its Asian context and that of developing countries more generally. They report on the lessons learned, both positive and negative, from the various economic policies that have been adopted, with regard to both agriculture and to economic inequality. Those interested in Philippine economic development, and Asian development more broadly, will find this an important reference work
Pollinator deficits, food consumption, and consequences for human health: A modeling study
Smith, Matthew; Mueller, Nathaniel D.; Springmann, Marco; Sulser, Timothy B.; Garibaldi, Lucas A.; Gerber, James; Wiebe, Keith D.; Myers, Samuel S.. 2022
Smith, Matthew; Mueller, Nathaniel D.; Springmann, Marco; Sulser, Timothy B.; Garibaldi, Lucas A.; Gerber, James; Wiebe, Keith D.; Myers, Samuel S.. 2022
DOI : 10.1289/EHP10947
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Background: Animal pollination supports agricultural production for many healthy foods, such as fruits, vegetables, nuts, and legumes, that provide key nutrients and protect against noncommunicable disease. Today, most crops receive suboptimal pollination because of limited abundance and diversity of pollinating insects. Animal pollinators are currently suffering owing to a host of direct and indirect anthropogenic pressures: land-use change, intensive farming techniques, harmful pesticides, nutritional stress, and climate change, among others. Objectives: We aimed to model the impacts on current global human health from insufficient pollination via diet.
History of anthropogenic Nitrogen inputs (HaNi) to the terrestrial biosphere: A 5 arcmin resolution annual dataset from 1860 to 2019
Tian, Hanqin; Bian, Zihao; Shi, Hao; Qin, Xiaoyu; Pan, Naiqing; You, Liangzhi. 2022
Tian, Hanqin; Bian, Zihao; Shi, Hao; Qin, Xiaoyu; Pan, Naiqing; You, Liangzhi. 2022
DOI : 10.5194/essd-14-4551-2022
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Excessive anthropogenic nitrogen (N) inputs to the biosphere have disrupted the global nitrogen cycle. To better quantify the spatial and temporal patterns of anthropogenic N inputs, assess their impacts on the biogeochemical cycles of the planet and the living organisms, and improve nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) for sustainable development, we have developed a comprehensive and synthetic dataset for reconstructing the History of anthropogenic Nitrogen inputs (HaNi) to the terrestrial biosphere. The HaNi dataset takes advantage of different data sources in a spatiotemporally consistent way to generate a set of high-resolution gridded N input products from the preindustrial period to the present (1860–2019). The HaNi dataset includes annual rates of synthetic N fertilizer, manure application/deposition, and atmospheric N deposition on cropland, pasture, and rangeland at a spatial resolution of 5 arcmin × 5 arcmin. Specifically, the N inputs are categorized, according to the N forms and land uses, into 10 types: (1) -N fertilizer applied to cropland, (2) NO-N fertilizer applied to cropland, (3) -N fertilizer applied to pasture, (4) NO-N fertilizer applied to pasture, (5) manure N application on cropland, (6) manure N application on pasture, (7) manure N deposition on pasture, (8) manure N deposition on rangeland, (9) NHx-N deposition, and (10) NOy-N deposition. The total anthropogenic N (TN) inputs to global terrestrial ecosystems increased from 29.05 Tg N yr−1 in the 1860s to 267.23 Tg N yr−1 in the 2010s, with the dominant N source changing from atmospheric N deposition (before the 1900s) to manure N (in the 1910s–2000s) and then to synthetic fertilizer in the 2010s. The proportion of synthetic -N in fertilizer input increased from 64 % in the 1960s to 90 % in the 2010s, while synthetic NO-N fertilizer decreased from 36 % in the 1960s to 10 % in the 2010s. Hotspots of TN inputs shifted from Europe and North America to East and South Asia during the 1960s–2010s. Such spatial and temporal dynamics captured by the HaNi dataset are expected to facilitate a comprehensive assessment of the coupled human–Earth system and address a variety of social welfare issues, such as the climate–biosphere feedback, air pollution, water quality, and biodiversity. The data are available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.942069 (Tian et al., 2022).
Farming Systems Analysis in support of user-centered research and innovation: A joint cross-initiative collaboration
Bonilla Cedrez, Camila; Caulfield, Mark; Descheemaeker, Katrien; Girvetz, Evan; Gosh, Aniruddha; Guo, Zhe; You, Liangzhi. 2022
Bonilla Cedrez, Camila; Caulfield, Mark; Descheemaeker, Katrien; Girvetz, Evan; Gosh, Aniruddha; Guo, Zhe; You, Liangzhi. 2022
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Farming Systems Analysis (FSA) is commonly used in CGIAR to assess ‘what works where, and for who?’. The findings are used to prioritize tailored/context-specific interventions and target investments for greater impact. An assessment of seven new CGIAR initiatives showed us that FSA is employed in a similar way across these initiatives, open ing up avenues for strong collaboration and sharing of data, methods and results to achieve better synergies than we have done in the past.
Border carbon adjustments: Should production or consumption be taxed?
Martin, Will. 2022
Martin, Will. 2022
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Border Carbon Adjustment (BCAs) may play an important role in lowering the economic costs of greenhouse gas mitigation and in overcoming political-economy constraints on use of carbon taxes or equivalent measures. A carbon tax plus a full BCA (CTBA) could deal with the competitiveness challenges arising from carbon taxes by using the WTO’s National Treatment principle to apply equal levies on domestic production and on imports, and by symmetrically rebating the carbon tax on exports in the manner of a VAT export rebate. This approach would shift the base for carbon taxation from output to consumption and intermediate input use and potentially lower the cost of achieving reductions in emissions. It would avoid the massive measurement and compliance problems associated with BCAs based on foreign emission intensities. By contrast, proposals for import-only BCAs would distort prices of importables relative to exportables, create competitiveness concerns in export industries, generate economic waste and likely create highly divisive trade conflicts and deterioration in the terms of trade for developing countries.
How climate change interacts with inequity to affect nutrition
Salm, Leah; Nisbett, Nicholas; Cramer, Laura; Gillespie, Stuart; Thornton, Philip. 2021
Salm, Leah; Nisbett, Nicholas; Cramer, Laura; Gillespie, Stuart; Thornton, Philip. 2021
DOI : 10.1002/wcc.696
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Climate change poses a growing threat to the achievement of optimal nutritional status, both directly through affecting food production and indirectly through altering social and economic influences in people's lives. These adverse nutrition outcomes are not evenly distributed across the world, and vulnerable populations are the most impacted. Understanding how different forms of inequity interact with climate change and adverse nutritional outcomes is a novel area of research in today's challenging environment of increased climate change pressures. This article presents the results of a systematic literature search undertaken to identify the connections, trends and pathways between climate change, inequity and nutrition outcomes. Forty‐six peer‐reviewed studies are identified that explore these complex interactions with a specific focus on the extent to which equity is a fundamental component of climate change and nutrition research. The pathways captured in this body of evidence are mapped to current framework thinking to identify trends and gaps. While there is a trend for studies to acknowledge an unfair distribution of vulnerability to adverse nutrition outcomes, there is less attention given to the (lack of) recognition of the social situations which increase these groups' vulnerability and the absence of representation or inclusion of these groups as vital decision‐makers. Studies that do incorporate these core dimensions of equity take mixed‐method and qualitative approaches. This highlights an inherent value in stepping outside the usual scope of empirical climate change research, one that incorporates the voices of those most affected.
The crucial role of domestic and international market-mediated adaptation to climate change
Gouel, Christophe; Laborde Debucquet, David. 2021
Gouel, Christophe; Laborde Debucquet, David. 2021
DOI : 10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102408
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Climate change effects on agricultural yields will be uneven over the world. A few countries, mostly in high latitudes, may experience gains, while most will see average yield decrease. This paper aims to quantify the role of market-mediated adjustments in attenuating the effects of climate change by allowing the expression of the new climate-induced pattern of comparative advantages within and between countries. To do this, we develop a quantitative general equilibrium trade model where the representation of land use choice is inspired from modern Ricardian trade models. We use spatially explicit information from the agronomic literature about potential yields before and after climate change for calibration and counterfactual simulations. The results show that the climate-induced yield changes generate large price movements that incentivize adjustments in production and trade. Both production and trade adjustments contribute to reducing welfare losses globally, with production adjustments making the larger contribution.
Migration towards Bangladesh coastlines projected to increase with sea-level rise through 2100
Bell, Andrew Reid; Wrathall, David J.; Mueller, Valerie; Chen, Joyce; Oppenheimer, Michael. 2021
Bell, Andrew Reid; Wrathall, David J.; Mueller, Valerie; Chen, Joyce; Oppenheimer, Michael. 2021
DOI : 10.1088/1748-9326/abdc5b
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To date, projections of human migration induced by sea-level change (SLC) largely suggest large-scale displacement away from vulnerable coastlines. However, results from our model of Bangladesh suggest counterintuitively that people will continue to migrate toward the vulnerable coastline irrespective of the flooding amplified by future SLC under all emissions scenarios until the end of this century. We developed an empirically calibrated agent-based model of household migration decision-making that captures the multi-faceted push, pull and mooring influences on migration at a household scale. We then exposed ~4,800,000 simulated migrants to 871 scenarios of projected 21st-century coastal flooding under future emissions pathways. Our model does not predict flooding impacts great enough to drive populations away from coastlines in any of the scenarios. One reason is that while flooding does accelerate a transition from agricultural to non-agricultural income opportunities, livelihood alternatives are most abundant in coastal cities. At the same time, some coastal populations are unable to migrate, as flood losses accumulate and reduce the set of livelihood alternatives (so-called "trapped" populations). However, even when we increased access to credit, a commonly-proposed policy lever for incentivizing migration in the face of climate risk, we found that the number of immobile agents actually rose. These findings imply that instead of a straightforward relationship between displacement and migration, projections need to consider the multiple constraints on, and preferences for, mobility. Our model demonstrates that decision-makers seeking to affect migration outcomes around SLC would do well to consider individual-level adaptive behaviors and motivations that evolve through time, as well as the potential for unintended behavioral responses.
Climate impact and adaptation to heat and drought stress of regional and global wheat production
Noleto Luz Pequeno, Diego; Hernandez-Ochoa, Ixchel Manuela; Reynolds, Matthew; Sonder, Kai; Molero-Milan, Anabel; Robertson, Richard. 2021
Noleto Luz Pequeno, Diego; Hernandez-Ochoa, Ixchel Manuela; Reynolds, Matthew; Sonder, Kai; Molero-Milan, Anabel; Robertson, Richard. 2021
DOI : 10.1088/1748-9326/abd970
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Wheat (Triticum aestivum) is the most widely grown food crop in the world threatened by future climate change. In this study, we simulated climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for wheat globally using new crop genetic traits (CGT), including increased heat tolerance, early vigor to increase early crop water use, late flowering to reverse an earlier anthesis in warmer conditions, and the combined traits with additional nitrogen (N) fertilizer applications, as an option to maximize genetic gains. These simulations were completed using three wheat crop models and five Global Climate Models (GCM) for RCP 8.5 at mid-century. Crop simulations were compared with country, US state, and US county grain yield and production. Wheat yield and production from high-yielding and low-yielding countries were mostly captured by the model ensemble mean. However, US state and county yields and production were often poorly reproduced, with large variability in the models, which is likely due to poor soil and crop management input data at this scale. Climate change is projected to decrease global wheat production by -1.9% by mid-century. However, the most negative impacts are projected to affect developing countries in tropical regions. The model ensemble mean suggests large negative yield impacts for African and Southern Asian countries where food security is already a problem. Yields are predicted to decline by -15% in African countries and -16% in Southern Asian countries by 2050. Introducing CGT as an adaptation to climate change improved wheat yield in many regions, but due to poor nutrient management, many developing countries only benefited from adaptation from CGT when combined with additional N fertilizer. As growing conditions and the impact from climate change on wheat vary across the globe, region-specific adaptation strategies need to be explored to increase the possible benefits of adaptations to climate change in the future.
Climate uncertainty and agricultural vulnerability in South Africa
Hartley, Faaiqa; Gabriel, Sherwin; Cullis, James; Arndt, Channing. 2021
Hartley, Faaiqa; Gabriel, Sherwin; Cullis, James; Arndt, Channing. 2021
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Climate change poses a serious threat to many countries, particularly to developing countries, which often have large sections of the population without resources to adapt to changes in their environment. One of the key ways in which climate change affects countries is its impact on agricultural production. This paper extends the analysis by Cullis et al. (2015) by unpacking the impacts of climate change on crops and regions across South Africa. Furthermore, it looks at the impact of climate change on household food consumption and its implications for food security. The analysis suggests that, while the impacts of climate change are likely to be negative, the size of impacts can be highly variable, depending on the resulting climate. The largest range of vulnerability lies along the eastern coast of the country, where there is also the greatest poverty. Other regions, such as the Western Cape, show clear signs of declining production across the likely range of future potential climates, although some of these threats can be addressed through adaptation. Shifting to irrigated agriculture offsets some of the negative impacts on production but is insufficient to fully offset the decline in output. It also puts agriculture into increasing competition with other sectors, such as municipal and industrial water usage. Key crops, such as summer cereals, oilseeds and deciduous fruits, are negatively affected by climate change. Climate change negatively affects household welfare both nationally and sub-nationally, with certain parts of the country worse affected than others. Its impacts are through both the effect on household incomes and through higher food prices, which negatively affect household food consumption.
Modeling the potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies on groundnut production in India
Kadiyala, M. D. M.; Nedumaran, Swamikannu; Padmanabhan, Jyosthnaa; Gumma, Murali Krishna; Gummadi, Sridhar; Robertson, Richard. 2021
Kadiyala, M. D. M.; Nedumaran, Swamikannu; Padmanabhan, Jyosthnaa; Gumma, Murali Krishna; Gummadi, Sridhar; Robertson, Richard. 2021
DOI : 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145996
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Groundnut is one of the significant sources of oil, food, and fodder in India. It is grown in marginal arid and semi-arid agro-ecosystems with wide yield fluctuations due to spatial variability of rainfall and soil. Climate change, which is predicted to increase the intra- and inter-annual rainfall variability will further constrain the groundnut economy in India besides the global and domestic economic, social and policy changes. Through this study we aim to examine the biophysical and social economic impacts of climate change on groundnut production and prices to provide a comprehensive analysis of how agriculture and the food system will be affected. Using projected climate data for India, we estimated the biophysical impacts of climate change on groundnut during mid-century using representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) scenario. We examined the impacts of changes in population and income besides environmental factors on groundnut productivity. This is to highlight the importance of holistic assessment of biophysical and socioeconomic factors to better understand climate change impacts. Modelled projections show that by 2050, climate change under an optimistic scenario will result in -2.3 to 43.2 percent change in groundnut yields across various regions in India when climate alone was factored in. But the change in groundnut yields ranged from -0.9 percent to 16.2 percent when economic (population and income) and market variables (elasticities, trade, etc.) were also considered. Similarly, under pessimistic climate change scenario, the percent change in groundnut yields would be -33.7 to 3.4 with only the climate factored in and -11.2 to 4.3 with the additional economic and market variables included. This indicates the sensitivity of climate change impacts to differences in socioeconomic factors. This study highlights the need to take into account market effects to gain a holistic understanding of how economic and environmental factors impact agricultural food systems and economies.
The heat never bothered me anyway: Gender‐specific response of agricultural labor to climatic shocks in Tanzania
Lee, Yeyoung; Haile, Beliyou; Seymour, Gregory; Azzarri, Carlo. 2021
Lee, Yeyoung; Haile, Beliyou; Seymour, Gregory; Azzarri, Carlo. 2021
DOI : 10.1002/aepp.13153
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Agricultural production in Africa is generally highly labor intensive with gender‐specific specialization across activities. Using panel data from Tanzania, we examine the effects of heat stress (temperature above 29°C) during the maize‐growing season on gender‐disaggregated agricultural labor use. Results show that heat stress reduces total male family labor but does not statistically affect female family labor. Households with only female adults seem to increase their labor supply under heat stress. Given these heterogeneous effects, gender‐sensitive development interventions and adaptation strategies are suggested to enhance women's adaptive capacity.
Policies are crucial for food system transformation
Swinnen, Johan. 2021
Swinnen, Johan. 2021
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Food systems hold the key not only to food security, but also to plant, animal and human health, as well as environmental sustainability. The United Nations (UN) will hold its first ever UN Food System Summit in September 2021, since the transformation of food systems is now seen as one of the most impactful approaches to meeting all 17 Sustainable Development Goals.
Unlocking economic growth under a changing climate: Agricultural water reforms in Pakistan
Davies, Stephen; Young, William. Switzerland 2021
Davies, Stephen; Young, William. Switzerland 2021
DOI : 10.1007/978-3-030-65679-9_7
Water availability, use and challenges in Pakistan: Water sector challenges in the Indus Basin and impact of climate change
Wahaj, Robina; Habib, Zaigham. Islamabad, Pakistan 2021
Wahaj, Robina; Habib, Zaigham. Islamabad, Pakistan 2021
DOI : 10.4060/cb0718en
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This working paper takes stock of Pakistan's water resource availability, delineating water supply system and its sources including precipitation and river flows, and the impact of increasing climatic variability on the water supply system. In particular, the paper focuses on the current water usage and requirements in the agricultural sector, and how changing climatic conditions will affect the consumption patterns. With inflows expected to become more variable in the coming years, the severity of climatic extremities will become more pronounced, driving up water demands in addition to the demand increase from a rising population and urbanization. Over extraction of groundwater resources is also disturbing the water calculus and pushing the country towards a critical demand-supply gap.
How to prevent and cope with coincidence of risks to the global food system
Fan, Shenggen; Cho, Emily EunYoung; Meng, Ting; Rue, Christopher. 2021
Fan, Shenggen; Cho, Emily EunYoung; Meng, Ting; Rue, Christopher. 2021
DOI : 10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-020844
Climate-informed priorities for One CGIAR regional integrated initiatives
Jarvis, Andy; Rosenstock, Todd; Koo, Jawoo; Thornton, Philip K.; Loboguerrero Rodriguez, Ana María. 2021
Jarvis, Andy; Rosenstock, Todd; Koo, Jawoo; Thornton, Philip K.; Loboguerrero Rodriguez, Ana María. 2021
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This report summarizes a rapid assessment of climate-related challenges to food-, land- and water- systems across the six CGIAR regions. Based on the evidence, priority geographies and systems are proposed which provide a starting point for the Regional Initiatives design process. It then assesses the readiness of the Two Degree Initiative (2DI) regional challenges for their fit to the challenges, and potential to form the basis for developing the first batch of Regional Integrated Initiatives.
Toward a digital one CGIAR: Strategic research on digital transformation in food, land, and water systems in a climate crisis
King, Brian; Devare, Medha; Overduin, Mathilde; Wong, Kelvin; Kropff, Wietske; Koo, Jawoo. 2021
King, Brian; Devare, Medha; Overduin, Mathilde; Wong, Kelvin; Kropff, Wietske; Koo, Jawoo. 2021
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The global research consortium CGIAR is restructuring itself to build a more integrated global organization (“One CGIAR”) that fully leverages its strengths and refocuses its research strategy through 2030 in service of a renewed mission: End hunger—through science to transform food, land, and water systems in a climate crisis. The CGIAR Platform for Big Data in Agriculture led strategic research in support of this effort, looking into digital trends that have the potential to transform global agriculture in the coming years, the roles public-interest organizations should play in the digital agriculture landscape, and the capabilities CGIAR must have if it is to use data and digital technology to their full potential in the service of its mission.
Disability-adjusted life years due to chronic and hidden hunger under food system evolution with climate change and adaptation to 2050
Sulser, Timothy B.; Beach, Robert H.; Wiebe, Keith D.; Dunston, Shahnila; Fukagawa, Naomi K.. 2021
Sulser, Timothy B.; Beach, Robert H.; Wiebe, Keith D.; Dunston, Shahnila; Fukagawa, Naomi K.. 2021
DOI : 10.1093/ajcn/nqab101
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Background: Climate change presents an increasing challenge for food-nutrition security. Nutrition metrics calculated from quantitative food system projections can help focus policy actions.
Objectives: To estimate future chronic and hidden hunger disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)-due to protein-energy undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies, respectively-using food systems projections to evaluate the potential impact of climate change and agricultural sector investment for adaptation.
Methods: We use a novel combination of a chronic and hidden hunger DALY estimation procedure and food system projections from quantitative foresight modeling to assess DALYs under alternative agricultural sector scenarios to midcentury.
Results: Total chronic and hidden hunger DALYs are projected to increase globally out to 2050-by over 30 million compared with 2010-even without climate change. Climate change increases total DALY change between 2010 and 2050 by nearly 10% compared with no climate change. Agricultural sector investments show promise for offsetting these impacts. With investments, DALY incidence due to chronic and hidden hunger is projected to decrease globally in 2050 by 0.24 and 0.56 per 1000 capita, respectively. Total global DALYs will still rise because projected population growth will outpace the rate reduction, especially in Africa south of the Sahara. However, projections also show important regional reductions in total DALYs due to chronic (13.9 million in South Asia, 4.3 million in East Asia and the Pacific) and hidden hunger (7.5 million in East Asia and the Pacific) with investments.
Conclusions: Food system projections to 2050 show a decreasing DALY incidence from both chronic and hidden hunger. Population growth is projected to outpace these improvements and lead to increasing total chronic and hidden hunger DALYs globally, concentrated in Africa south of the Sahara. Climate change increases per-capita chronic and hidden hunger DALY incidence compared with no climate change. Agricultural sector investments show the potential to offset the climate impact on DALYs.
Objectives: To estimate future chronic and hidden hunger disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)-due to protein-energy undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies, respectively-using food systems projections to evaluate the potential impact of climate change and agricultural sector investment for adaptation.
Methods: We use a novel combination of a chronic and hidden hunger DALY estimation procedure and food system projections from quantitative foresight modeling to assess DALYs under alternative agricultural sector scenarios to midcentury.
Results: Total chronic and hidden hunger DALYs are projected to increase globally out to 2050-by over 30 million compared with 2010-even without climate change. Climate change increases total DALY change between 2010 and 2050 by nearly 10% compared with no climate change. Agricultural sector investments show promise for offsetting these impacts. With investments, DALY incidence due to chronic and hidden hunger is projected to decrease globally in 2050 by 0.24 and 0.56 per 1000 capita, respectively. Total global DALYs will still rise because projected population growth will outpace the rate reduction, especially in Africa south of the Sahara. However, projections also show important regional reductions in total DALYs due to chronic (13.9 million in South Asia, 4.3 million in East Asia and the Pacific) and hidden hunger (7.5 million in East Asia and the Pacific) with investments.
Conclusions: Food system projections to 2050 show a decreasing DALY incidence from both chronic and hidden hunger. Population growth is projected to outpace these improvements and lead to increasing total chronic and hidden hunger DALYs globally, concentrated in Africa south of the Sahara. Climate change increases per-capita chronic and hidden hunger DALY incidence compared with no climate change. Agricultural sector investments show the potential to offset the climate impact on DALYs.
From bad to worse: Poverty impacts of food availability responses to weather shocks
Koo, Jawoo; Mamun, Abdullah; Martin, Will. 2021
Koo, Jawoo; Mamun, Abdullah; Martin, Will. 2021
DOI : 10.1111/agec.12657
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Since Amartya Sen's famous work on Poverty and Famines, economists have understood that the impacts of food market shocks on the poor depend much more on their impacts on households’ incomes and access to food than on overall food availability, and that availability-based policies frequently exacerbate adverse impacts on household welfare. Perhaps because household-level impacts are not directly observable many policy makers have continued to rely on availability-oriented policies such as export bans. In the Zambia case considered in this article, export bans imposed in response to an El Niño event appear to have greatly exacerbated the small increase in poverty resulting from the weather shock. The combination of household-level data and crop models used in this article allows us to assess the impacts of weather and price shocks at the household level, and to evaluate the suitability of availability-based policies for dealing with weather shocks. These analytical techniques can also help identify the households and regions adversely affected, and design policies to improve poor consumers’ access to food.
Characteristics of distinct dietary patterns in rural Bangladesh: Nutrient adequacy and vulnerability to shocks
Ali, Zakari; Scheelbeek, Pauline F. D.; Sanin, Kazi Istiaque; Thomas, Timothy S.; Ahmed, Tahmeed; Prentice, Andrew M.; Green, Rosemary. 2021
Ali, Zakari; Scheelbeek, Pauline F. D.; Sanin, Kazi Istiaque; Thomas, Timothy S.; Ahmed, Tahmeed; Prentice, Andrew M.; Green, Rosemary. 2021
DOI : 10.3390/nu13062049
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Food security in Bangladesh has improved in recent years, but the country is now facing a double burden of malnutrition while also being highly vulnerable to climate change. Little is known about how this may affect food supply to different sectors of the population. To inform this, we used a national dietary survey of 800 rural households to define dietary patterns using latent class analysis. Nutrient adequacy of dietary patterns and their potential vulnerability to climate shocks (based on diversity of calorie sources) were assessed. We fitted mixed effects logistic regression models to identify factors associated with dietary patterns. Four dietary patterns were identified: rice and low diversity; wheat and high diversity; pulses and vegetables; meat and fish. The wheat and high diversity and meat and fish patterns tended to be consumed by households with higher levels of wealth and education, while the rice and low diversity pattern was consumed by households with lower levels of wealth and education. The pulses and vegetables pattern was consumed by households of intermediate socio-economic status. While energy intake was high, fat and protein intake were suboptimal for all patterns except for the wheat and high diversity pattern. All patterns had fruit and vegetable intake below the WHO recommendation. The wheat and high diversity pattern was least vulnerable to shocks, while the rice and low diversity pattern was the most vulnerable, relying mainly on single cereal staples. The diets showed “double vulnerability” where the nutrient inadequate patterns were also those most vulnerable to shocks.
Social dimensions of Weather Index Insurance in reaching marginal stakeholders: Lessons from Asia and Africa: Webinar summary report
Aheeyar, Mohamed; de Silva, Sanjiv; Barua, Anamika. Colombo, Sri Lanka 2021
Aheeyar, Mohamed; de Silva, Sanjiv; Barua, Anamika. Colombo, Sri Lanka 2021
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Climate change will have an impact on natural resources, water being one of them, affecting the availability of water including increasing the intensity of floods and droughts. It is also a known fact that the impact of natural hazards is felt more in developing countries compared to developed countries and especially by vulnerable and marginalised groups within communities. Such groups are more at risk due to their greater exposure (e.g. cultivation on low-lying land) and poor capacity to adapt (e.g. less access to irrigation and financial assets- poor literacy and agency) and hence lower resilience. This is compounded by the fact that financial support from the government is not readily available in many developing countries for all losses.
Measuring the impacts of repurposing agricultural support on global agriculture
Gautam, Madhur; Laborde Debucquet, David; Mamun, Abdullah; Martin, Will; Piñeiro, Valeria; Vos, Rob. 2021
Gautam, Madhur; Laborde Debucquet, David; Mamun, Abdullah; Martin, Will; Piñeiro, Valeria; Vos, Rob. 2021
DOI : 10.22004/ag.econ.312847
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Vast amounts of resources are spent on support to agriculture, with questionable results for agriculture, for national incomes, for nutrition and for the environment. Is it possible to repurpose some of this support in ways that will bring about better outcomes? This study uses detailed modeling of the links between support, emissions and other outcomes to examine several different potential approaches. Simply removing or rearranging support seems not to be sufficient. While removing subsidies can reduce emissions, these reductions are slight relative to current emission levels, while removing border measures may increase emissions by increasing global demand and reallocating production. More comprehensive reforms, such as allocating more resources to R&D that results in lower emissions and higher efficiency, could have much more favorable impacts. Approaches that use conditionality to move producers to lower-emission production approaches can also play a role, although, if these involve lower productivity, they may put greater pressure on land use change and its associated emissions.
All hat and no cattle: Accountability following the UN food systems summit
Covic, Namukolo; Dobermann, Achim; Fanzo, Jessica; Henson, Spencer; Herrero, Mario; Pingali, Prabhu; Staal, Steve. 2021
Covic, Namukolo; Dobermann, Achim; Fanzo, Jessica; Henson, Spencer; Herrero, Mario; Pingali, Prabhu; Staal, Steve. 2021
DOI : 10.1016/j.gfs.2021.100569
Trends in US agricultural policy since 2000 and implications for the next twenty years
Glauber, Joseph W.; Smith, Vincent H.. 2021
Glauber, Joseph W.; Smith, Vincent H.. 2021
DOI : 10.1111/1746-692X.12329
Climate change, food security, and central banks in developing economies
Arndt, Channing; Hartley, Faaiqa; Loewald, Christopher; Makrelov, Konstantin. 2021
Arndt, Channing; Hartley, Faaiqa; Loewald, Christopher; Makrelov, Konstantin. 2021
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Climate change represents a rapidly emerging challenge for central banks, particularly in developing economies. Central banks have tools to increase the economy’s resilience, enable reallocation of resources to reduce costs and grasp opportunities, and smooth the transition to a low carbon economy. Specific measures, such as changes to selected macroprudential rules, merit consideration. The climate challenge also highlights two traditional mandates. First, price and financial stability support investment and long-term price discovery, both crucial to climate response. Second, central banks are already critical providers of information to public and private decision-makers. Creation and dissemination of knowledge that facilitates improved decision-making by public and private actors (notably investors) may be central banks’ most important contribution to more favourable social, economic, and environmental outcomes in a context of climate change. The T20 can play important roles in facilitating this knowledge acquisition by central banks in developing countries.
Repurposing agricultural policy support for climate change mitigation and adaptation
Gautam, Madhur; Laborde Debucquet, David; Martin, Will; Piñeiro, Valeria; Vos, Rob. 2021
Gautam, Madhur; Laborde Debucquet, David; Martin, Will; Piñeiro, Valeria; Vos, Rob. 2021
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Agricultural production is both strongly affected by climate change and a major contributor to climate change, with agriculture and land use change accounting for about one fifth of total global greenhouse gas emissions more than for transport or industrial uses. Agricultural production benefits from substantial government support, costing at least US$640 billion per year worldwide. Past and current support have an impact on greenhouse gas emissions by influencing the composition and location of output, and production practices. This brief summarises evidence indicating that simple elimination of all existing support measures would do little to reduce global emissions from agriculture, while they could be cut by as much as 40 per cent with “smart repurposing” that would shift resources towards R&D and incentives for the widespread adoption of productivity-enhancing and climate-resilient production practices. Such policy reform, if concerted globally, will also provide winwin solutions for reducing poverty (SDG1), improve food security and reduce the cost of a healthy diet (SDG2), while improving global welfare, reducing global inequalities and improving biodiversity (SDGs 8, 10 and 15).
The brief recommends that the G20: (i) support the international AgIncentives Consortium to serve as an enhanced platform to monitor the environmental, as well as the economic and social impacts of agricultural support measures; (ii) prepare a guidance note for the international coordination of smart repurposing of agricultural support measures to align these with common objectives of sustainability and efficiency of food systems, poverty reduction, food security and affordability of healthy diets for all; and (iii) organise joint sessions of Agriculture, Finance and Development Track Ministers to engage in policy dialogue leading to concerted action for the repurposing of agricultural support measures.
Preface - Agriculture, gender and COVID-19: Impact and recovery
Ringler, Claudia. Ahmedabad, India 2021
Ringler, Claudia. Ahmedabad, India 2021
Abstract | View
I am honored to write the preface for the Southasiadisaster.net issue on “Agriculture, Gender and COVID-19: Impact and Recovery”. I started to engage with Self Employed Women’s Association (SEWA) in 2019 on a research-for-development project that was squarely focused on reaching women farmers with climate resilience strategies. We felt at that time that this was one of the most under-studied topics that was essential to rural women’s future in South Asia and elsewhere. I had no idea that the journey would lead to eventually trying to address key questions on the twin crises of climate change and COVID-19.
Introduction to the special issue “Scaling up of agroforestry innovations: Enhancing food, nutrition and income security”
Seghieri, Josiane; Droy, Isabelle; Hadgu, Kiros; Place, Frank. 2021
Seghieri, Josiane; Droy, Isabelle; Hadgu, Kiros; Place, Frank. 2021
DOI : 10.1007/s10457-021-00689-5
Abstract | View
It is more and more acknowledged that agroecological innovations, such as agroforestry practices, should be co-created through a combination of research and traditional knowledge, be context adaptable, and meet the needs of producers and consumers. The word “innovation” recognises that agroforestry practices do exist everywhere in the world. However, to be able to effectively respond to global challenges and changes (demography and social changes, climate, local to international markets), speaking about "innovations" implies that these practices could be improved or transformed or reintroduced everywhere they had disappeared or are in decline. This reality is still current despite the significant number of research and innovation programmes, the volume of mobilized funds and the number of participating organizations. Increasing adoption of agroforestry practices also requires long term planning and coordination because trees’ life cycles are often longer than human life. This special issue includes papers on some agroforestry innovations that merit consideration for scaling up, on successful experiences that answer priorities expressed by stakeholders while taking into account their constraints, and on systemic approaches and frameworks to the development of more comprehensive perspectives on scaling up.
Learning from research on water governance: Priorities for One CGIAR
CGIAR Research Program on Water, Land and Ecosystems (WLE). Colombo, Sri Lanka 2021
CGIAR Research Program on Water, Land and Ecosystems (WLE). Colombo, Sri Lanka 2021
Abstract | View
Water is an essential resource for all life, but is extremely difficult to manage productively, sustainably and equitably. Good water governance has been a major theme of multiple international conferences for at least two decades (Woodhouse and Muller 2017). Without good governance, we cannot achieve poverty reduction, food security, environmental sustainability, equity and other global development goals or respond effectively to the ravages of climate change. Achieving many of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) depends on the availability of water to users. However, while there are some local success stories, progress on improving water management has been poor. By many measures, we are moving in the wrong direction: access to water, water scarcity, water pollution and food insecurity are getting worse in many parts of the world. Further, the rapid loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services threatens humanity’s future (Bradshaw et al. 2021). There is strong evidence and broad agreement that this is fundamentally a governance failure (e.g., Pahl-Wostl 2017). If we do not succeed in governing water more effectively, we cannot achieve the SDGs. Getting the governance of natural resources right is also a pre requisite for achieving CGIAR’s ambitious 2030 goals (CGIAR n.d.).
Is the past the prologue for the future of agricultural policy in the United States?
Glauber, Joseph W.; Smith, Vincent H.. 2021
Glauber, Joseph W.; Smith, Vincent H.. 2021
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Key Points
Over the past 20 years, Congress has substantially increased federal crop insurance subsidies and shifted direct payments to farmers away from payments decoupled from current prices and yields toward countercyclical payments.
Ad hoc disaster relief payments to farmers ballooned in recent years in response to trade disputes with China and the coronavirus pandemic, arguably outweighing farm losses, but these subsidies may not continue.
The Joe Biden administration is promoting policy initiatives to increase subsidies received by minorities and small family farmers and expand funding for conservation and greenhouse gas emission–reduction practices on farms.
Over the past 20 years, Congress has substantially increased federal crop insurance subsidies and shifted direct payments to farmers away from payments decoupled from current prices and yields toward countercyclical payments.
Ad hoc disaster relief payments to farmers ballooned in recent years in response to trade disputes with China and the coronavirus pandemic, arguably outweighing farm losses, but these subsidies may not continue.
The Joe Biden administration is promoting policy initiatives to increase subsidies received by minorities and small family farmers and expand funding for conservation and greenhouse gas emission–reduction practices on farms.
Enhancing science-policy interfaces for food systems transformation
Singh, Brajesh K.; Arnold, Tom; Biermayr-Jenzano, Patricia; Broerse, Jacqueline; Brunori, Gianluca; Caron, Patrick; De Schutter, Olivier; Fan, Shenggen; Njuki, Jemimah. 2021
Singh, Brajesh K.; Arnold, Tom; Biermayr-Jenzano, Patricia; Broerse, Jacqueline; Brunori, Gianluca; Caron, Patrick; De Schutter, Olivier; Fan, Shenggen; Njuki, Jemimah. 2021
DOI : 10.1038/s43016-021-00406-6
Abstract | View
The anticipated failure of many countries to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030 necessitates the assessment of science–policy engagement mechanisms for food systems transformation. We explore options for enhancing existing partnerships, mandates and resources — or reimagining a new mission — for science–policy interfaces.
Climate-mediated dynamics of the northern limit of paddy rice in China
Liang, Shefang; Wu, Wenbin; Sun, Jing; Li, Zhipeng; Sun, Xiao; Chen, Hao; Chen, Shi; Fan, Lingling; You, Liangzhi; Yang, Peng. 2021
Liang, Shefang; Wu, Wenbin; Sun, Jing; Li, Zhipeng; Sun, Xiao; Chen, Hao; Chen, Shi; Fan, Lingling; You, Liangzhi; Yang, Peng. 2021
DOI : 10.1088/1748-9326/abfac0
Abstract | View
Paddy rice agriculture plays an important role in food security and has a considerable influence on natural systems. In the context of climate change, understanding the nature and drivers of shifts in the northern limit of paddy rice (NLPR) is crucial for adaptation strategies and food security. However, quantitative studies on the effect of climate change on paddy rice distribution shifts have not been well performed. Here, we mapped the NLPR in China using Landsat imagery from 1984 to 2013, analyzed the latitudinal and elevational dynamics of the NLPR using Fishnet analysis, and explored the factors driving the changes in rice area across the NLPR regions using a linear regression model. Our results show that between 1984 and 2013, the NLPR shifted 24.93 km northward (the greatest movement was 88.01 km occurring at approximately 133° E) and elevational limits increased by 39.15 m (the greatest movement was 117.08 m occurring at approximately 129° E). While socioeconomic factors (e.g. benefits, policies, irrigation, and mulch) played significant roles in rice area changes, the changes in rice area across the NLPR regions had the strongest positive association with the increase in the previous temperature, indicating that rice cultivation in the NLPR regions has moved to higher latitudes over the 30 year study period to adapt to climate change. Our study highlighted that quantifying the interactions between climate change and crop production systems can facilitate a better understanding of the human responses to changes in the growing conditions in the face of climate change and ensuring regional and global food security.
Assessing population exposure to coastal flooding due to sea level rise
Hauer, Mathew E.; Hardy, Dean; Kulp, Scott A.; Mueller, Valerie; Wrathall, David J.; Clark, Peter U.. 2021
Hauer, Mathew E.; Hardy, Dean; Kulp, Scott A.; Mueller, Valerie; Wrathall, David J.; Clark, Peter U.. 2021
DOI : 10.1038/s41467-021-27260-1
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The exposure of populations to sea-level rise (SLR) is a leading indicator assessing the impact of future climate change on coastal regions. SLR exposes coastal populations to a spectrum of impacts with broad spatial and temporal heterogeneity, but exposure assessments often narrowly define the spatial zone of flooding. Here we show how choice of zone results in differential exposure estimates across space and time. Further, we apply a spatio-temporal flood-modeling approach that integrates across these spatial zones to assess the annual probability of population exposure. We apply our model to the coastal United States to demonstrate a more robust assessment of population exposure to flooding from SLR in any given year. Our results suggest that more explicit decisions regarding spatial zone (and associated temporal implication) will improve adaptation planning and policies by indicating the relative chance and magnitude of coastal populations to be affected by future SLR.
Assessing feasibility and effects of personalized remote advisories based on smartphone pictures: A formative evaluation in India
Ceballos, Francisco; Kannan, Samyuktha; Kramer, Berber. Wageningen, The Netherlands 2021
Ceballos, Francisco; Kannan, Samyuktha; Kramer, Berber. Wageningen, The Netherlands 2021
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This paper provides a formative evaluation of picture-based advisories (PBA), using a cluster randomized trial in the states of Punjab and Haryana in northern India. The study randomly assigned 203 villages to one of three treatment arms: a control group, in which farmers received generic agricultural advisories; a PBA treatment arm, in which farmers received not only generic advisories but also PBA messages personalized based on smartphone images of their crops; and a treatment arm in which farmers received picture-based insurance (PBI) coverage for visible damage to insured crops in addition to the generic and PBA messages. We find high participation among all groups of farmers, regardless of potential digital divides, indicating feasibility of an inclusive PBA approach. Moreover, PBA improved farmers’ knowledge around good agricultural practices. Although this did not translate into increased adoption of recommended practices in the short run, farmers do report that the advisory service helps them reduce risk, providing a business case for bundling this service with insurance.
Climate change and food system sustainability: Challenges and solutions
Vos, Rob. Rome, Italy 2021
Vos, Rob. Rome, Italy 2021
Gender and seed entrepreneurism: Case studies in Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya and Tanzania
Gumucio, Tatiana; Kramer, Berber; Ragasa, Catherine; Pyburn, Rhiannon; Galie, Alessandra; Aredo, Samson Dejene; Jumba, Humphrey; Nimorme, Eva; Omondi, Inmaculate; Sufian, Farha D.. Wageningen, The Netherlands 2021
Gumucio, Tatiana; Kramer, Berber; Ragasa, Catherine; Pyburn, Rhiannon; Galie, Alessandra; Aredo, Samson Dejene; Jumba, Humphrey; Nimorme, Eva; Omondi, Inmaculate; Sufian, Farha D.. Wageningen, The Netherlands 2021
Abstract | View
Our paper seeks to identify factors that inhibit and promote women’s success in seed businesses, through three case studies of women’s and men’s entrepreneurship across varying seed-related value chains and country contexts in Africa south of the Sahara. The cases include chicken seed dissemination in Ethiopia and Tanzania, tilapia seed production in Ghana, and marketing and trading of improved maize and sorghum seeds in Kenya. Applying a gender lens, we use qualitative methods to analyze women’s and men’s motivations to engage in seed businesses, the challenges they confront to start and succeed, and prospects for sustainability and continued success. We also use quantitative data to characterize the levels of empowerment of the entrepreneurs sampled. Results show that time flexibility and profitability of the business can be important considerations for women’s engagement in seed entrepreneurship, and the social normative context of the sector is also critical. Furthermore, outside support can be a key factor influencing women’s seed entrepreneurship, per the Kenya case.
Designing new tools for evaluating gender impacts for climate services in agriculture: Introduction to a series of field experiments in Rwanda
Kramer, Berber; Rose, Alison; Dejene, Samson; Mukangabo, Emerence; Mollerstrom, Johanna; Seymour, Greg; Kagabo, Desire. Wageningen, The Netherlands 2021
Kramer, Berber; Rose, Alison; Dejene, Samson; Mukangabo, Emerence; Mollerstrom, Johanna; Seymour, Greg; Kagabo, Desire. Wageningen, The Netherlands 2021
Abstract | View
Impact evaluations and cost-benefit analyses often guide investments in agricultural development but determining whether an investment is cost effective in empowering women is a major challenge. The multidimensional, dynamic nature of women’s empowerment does not lend itself easily to quantitative measurement and poses challenges for aggregation across different dimensions, and for analyzing trade-offs in development.
Toolkit for cost-benefit analysis of climate information services: An outline
Timu, Anne G.; Aju, Stellamaris; Kramer, Berber. 2021
Timu, Anne G.; Aju, Stellamaris; Kramer, Berber. 2021
Abstract | View
The Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) aims to support the development and scaling of the CGIAR’s most strategic and impactful climate change mitigation strategies across Africa. One of the main objectives of AICCRA is to facilitate the development, and evaluation of tailored climate information services (CIS) packages for small-scale farmers in the target countries. CIS involves the collection, organization, packaging, and distribution of targeted and timely weather and climate information, such as rainfall, temperature, wind, and soil conditions among others (Tall, et al. 2014). Under the AICCRA program, it is expected that farmers used the tailored CIS packages to make farm production decisions that will improve farm productivity and profitability, access to financial services, and risk-taking capacity. In addition, tailoring CIS to meet the needs of vulnerable groups such as women, and the youth is expected to have a direct impact on intra-household dynamics including resource and labor allocation, and household decision making. Collectively, these farm-level changes are expected to improve household long-term resilience to climate change, household food security, and individual sense of wellbeing and agency.
To better understand the individual and societal benefits of CIS, IFPRI is developing a toolkit that evaluates the costs and benefits of country-specific CIS packages. The toolkit will go beyond the conventional approach that measures the net present value of gains in farm productivity and profitability to evaluate impacts on a range of other outcome variables that are not traded in the market (for example, more stable and predictable income flows, improved women’s agency, reductions in workload and intra-household labor allocations, and changes in health and behavioral outcomes).
To better understand the individual and societal benefits of CIS, IFPRI is developing a toolkit that evaluates the costs and benefits of country-specific CIS packages. The toolkit will go beyond the conventional approach that measures the net present value of gains in farm productivity and profitability to evaluate impacts on a range of other outcome variables that are not traded in the market (for example, more stable and predictable income flows, improved women’s agency, reductions in workload and intra-household labor allocations, and changes in health and behavioral outcomes).
Gender-inclusive, -responsive and -transformative agricultural insurance: A literature review
Timu, Anne G.; Kramer, Berber. Wageningen, The Netherlands 2021
Timu, Anne G.; Kramer, Berber. Wageningen, The Netherlands 2021
Abstract | View
This literature review uses a gender analysis framework proposed by Johnson et al. (2018) to explore the extent to which agricultural insurance reaches, benefits and empowers women and men. We find that most studies on gender and agricultural insurance focus on gender inclusivity by analyzing gender gaps in insurance reach and studying how to increase take-up among women. By contrast, limited attention has been paid to understanding gender equity in the distribution of insurance outcomes, that is, the extent to which insurance benefits and empowers women as much as men. We show that insurance programs can promote gender equity in benefits by providing quality insurance products that are beneficial to both men and women, and through long-term monitoring of individual outcomes measured within households using gender-disaggregated data. Insurance programs can support gender empowerment by ensuring that contracts purchased by women are registered under their names and payouts are subsequently paid to their accounts, by bundling insurance with empowerment programs, and by preserving and promoting informal mutual assistance group activities and membership. We then draw on a case study in Kenya to illustrate how this framework can be applied to design more gender-inclusive, -responsive and -transformative insurance schemes.
The future of diets and hunger in South East Asia under climate change and alternative investment scenarios: Technical report based on IMPACT model results
Cenacchi, Nicola; Dunston, Shahnila; Sulser, Timothy B.; Wiebe, Keith D.; Willenbockel, Dirk. Wageningen, The Netherlands 2021
Cenacchi, Nicola; Dunston, Shahnila; Sulser, Timothy B.; Wiebe, Keith D.; Willenbockel, Dirk. Wageningen, The Netherlands 2021
Abstract | View
Despite enjoying strong economic growth in the last few decades, Southeast Asia still faces challenges to food security, with high levels of stunting across countries in the region. Agricultural production is likely to see large impacts from climate change, including sea-level rise, droughts, and floods. The climate threat compounds pressures onto the food systems coming from the rapid demographic and income trends. Population across the region may grow by 25% between 2010 and 2050, and average income per capita may see a fourfold increase in the same period. In absence of climate impacts, growth in agricultural productivity is estimated to bring about an increase in production of over 50% between 2020 and 2050, with positive effects on the availability of kilocalories, and increased consumption of animal products. However, the projected climate impacts are expected to hit most of the crops in the region, especially cereals. Per capita income in 2050 may be negatively affected compared to a scenario without climate shocks. The resulting decrease in total calories availability translates into an increase in population at risk of hunger across the region and by country. We show that enhanced investments in public international agricultural R&D have the potential to improve yields despite the long-term negative effects of climate shocks, and when combined with increased research efficiency they may even offset climate impacts on food security across the region.
Accelerating rural energy access for agricultural transformation: Contribution of the CGIAR Research Program on Water, Land and Ecosystems to transforming food, land and water systems in a climate crisis
Magalhaes, Marilia; Ringler, Claudia; Verma, Shilp; Schmitter, Petra. Colombo, Sri Lanka 2021
Magalhaes, Marilia; Ringler, Claudia; Verma, Shilp; Schmitter, Petra. Colombo, Sri Lanka 2021
DOI : 10.5337/2022.202
Abstract | View
With adverse impacts of climate change growing in number and intensity, there is an urgent need to reduce emissions from food systems to net zero. This can only be achieved if rural areas in low- and middle-income countries gain access to clean energy. A review of the research and capacity building contributions of the CGIAR Research Program on Water, Land and Ecosystems (WLE) over the last 10 years suggests important contributions in the areas of energy policy and energy investment planning, cost and feasibility frameworks, and business models for clean energy technology uptake. WLE has also conducted successful pilot projects on solar irrigation to provide an evidence base for scaling up innovative energy initiatives. Finally, the program also considered non-agricultural uses of energy where relevant to food systems, and implemented capacity building activities. Going forward, CGIAR has a key role to play in providing information, supporting access and piloting innovative, scalable clean energy interventions to support the achievement of multiple impacts for the poorest and most food-insecure women and men farmers and entrepreneurs.
Supply chains for processed potato and tomato products in the United States will have enhanced resilience with planting adaptation strategies
Gustafson, David; Asseng, Senthold; Kruse, John; Thoma, Greg; Guan, Kaiyu; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Matlock, Marty; McLean, Morven; Parajuli, Ranjan; Sulser, Timothy B.; Wiebe, Keith D.. 2021
Gustafson, David; Asseng, Senthold; Kruse, John; Thoma, Greg; Guan, Kaiyu; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Matlock, Marty; McLean, Morven; Parajuli, Ranjan; Sulser, Timothy B.; Wiebe, Keith D.. 2021
DOI : 10.1038/s43016-021-00383-w
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