Researchers at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and their many country collaborators are dedicated to helping farmers with the challenges posed by a changing climate. Our work covers global, country, and farm level analyses and uses sophisticated water, crop, and economic models to assess the impact of climate change on agricultural activities. Based on these analyses, researchers at IFPRI identify technologies, tools, incentives, and policies that help smallholders to grow food, care for the earth and improve their livelihoods in the process.
Books
Headey, Derek D.; Hirvonen, Kalle. Washington, DC 2023
Yet there were concerns that this system was creaking at the seams as far back as 2007. At that time, there were steeply rising food prices driven by rising oil prices, explosive demand for corn-based biofuels, high shipping costs, financial market speculation, low grain reserves, severe weather disruptions in some major grain produc ers, and a swath of nervy trade policies leading to further shocks that worsened the problem.
The World Food Program’s director general described it as a “perfect storm.” Prices spiked again in 2011/12 before gradually receding.
In retrospect, those storms might now appear temperate in comparison to that we face in 2022. Even before the current crisis unfolded, food, fertilizer, oil, and shipping costs were rising steeply.
The FAO cereal price index shows prices hit their 2008 level in 2021, and since the invasion they have explod ed. Between 2019 and March 2022, cereal prices increased by 48%, fuel prices by 86%, and fertilizer prices by 35% (Figure 1).
Here are three factors that we think make the situation in 2022 much worse, and three measures that could help prevent a global food supply system collapse
Kramer, Berber. Washington, DC 2023
This chapter highlights several innovations in climate insurance that were developed and tested in Kenya with the aim of improving smallholder farmers’ ability to manage the production risks associated with climate change.
Abay, Kibrom A.; Abdelfattah, Lina; Breisinger, Clemens; Glauber, Joseph W.; Laborde Debucquet, David. Washington, DC 2023
In this post, we consider the impacts of the war on the wheat market, focusing on Egypt. Wheat is a key food item for this country, representing between 35% and 39% of caloric intake per person in the past few years. Wheat imports usually account for about 62% of total wheat use in the country. We conclude by listing a number of key policy actions aimed at diversifying imports in the short term and helping Egypt’s agrifood system transformation become fairer and more resilient. The latter is an absolute necessity in the context of looming threats from climate change and water scarcity.
Hebebrand, Charlotte; Laborde Debucquet, David. Washington, DC 2023
Spiking fertilizer prices are likely to have major impacts on agriculture and food production — and thus, food security — around the world, as farmers struggle to pay for a key input and face potential supply disruptions, and governments look for ways to cushion the economic blow.
Glauber, Joseph W., ed.; Laborde Debucquet, David, ed.. Washington, DC 2023
Journal Articles
Bustamante, Mercedes; Roy, Joyashree; Ospina, Daniel; Achakulwisut, Ploy; Aggarwal, Anubha; Singh, Vartika. Article in press
Kudita, Sakile; Schoustra, Sijmen; Mubaiwa, Juliet; Smid, Eddy J.; Linnemann, Anita R. . Article in press
Nkonya, Ephraim; Kato, Edward; Kabore, Carolyn. 2024
Bryan, Elizabeth; Alvi, Muzna; Huyer, Sophia; Ringler, Claudia. 2024
Savvidou, Georgia; Canales, Nella; Haque, Nabil; Pauw, Pieter; Mbeva, Kennedy; Zamarioli, Luis . Nairobi, Kenya 2023
▶ For the five years following the Paris Agreement’s entry into force (2017–2021), finance for adaptation from international public sources to developing countries remained at or below US$25 billion per year, or approximately US$3 per person per year. In 2021, there was a 15 per cent decrease from 2020 levels, down to US$21 billion.
▶ In the same five-year period, the disbursement ratio for adaptation finance (at 66 per cent) was lower than for development finance overall (at 98 per cent): this indicates specific barriers to adaptation that hinder the implementation of projects in developing countries.
● These barriers include low grant-to-loan ratios, failure to consider local issues when planning and designing projects, limited technical capacity among decision makers, and misalignment between the duration of the approval and disbursement process and the shorter-term mandates of national and local governments.
▶ In the 2017–2021 period, less than 17 per cent of commitments were dedicated to projects with a specific focus on local communities. While this is an increase from previous levels, these low levels exist despite increasing understanding of the importance of local communities’ agency and involvement in adaptation projects.
▶ In the same period, the share of grants as a proportion of the total finance for adaptation for least developed countries (LDCs) (at 52 per cent) was substantially higher than that of non-LDCs (26 per cent). Small island developing States (SIDS) have an even higher share of grants in their total commitments (67 per cent).
● This demonstrates that financial institutions are placing a higher emphasis on providing grant-based funding to LDCs and SIDS. This reflects concerns that traditional debt instruments (loans) are a less equitable option for adaptation finance in the most vulnerable countries, due to current debt vulnerabilities and limited fiscal capacity.
▶ Approximately a quarter of the finance simultaneously addressing both adaptation and mitigation (cross-cutting finance) was committed for general environment protection, indicating the potentially synergetic role of nature-based solutions for both adaptation and mitigation.
▶ Domestic expenditure and private finance are identified as vitally important sources of adaptation finance, but quantitative estimates continue to be unavailable. However, neither domestic expenditures nor private finance flows are likely to bridge the adaptation finance gap alone, especially in low-income countries (including the LDCs and SIDS), and there are important equity issues in using domestic budgets to address the finance gap in these countries.
Policy Briefs
Breisinger, Clemens; Karugia, Joseph; Keenan, Michael; Mbuthia, Juneweenex. Washington, DC 2022
De Pinto, Alessandro; Wiebe, Keith D.; Rosegrant, Mark W.. Washington, D.C. 2016
Fan, Shenggen; Ringler, Claudia; Nkonya, Ephraim M.; Stein, Alexander J.. Washington, D.C. 2012
Fan, Shenggen; Torero, Maximo; Headey, Derek D.. Washington, DC 2011
Falck-Zepeda, José Benjamin; Cavalieri, Anthony J.; Zambrano, Patricia. Washington, D.C. 2009
Reports
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, DC 2023
HarvestPlus. Washington, DC 2023
Azzarri, Carlo; Boukaka, Sedi-Anne; Vitellozzi, Sveva. Washington, DC 2023
Africa RISING (AR) initiatives in Mali were implemented in Bougouni, Yanfolila, and Koutiala cercles (administrative units) in the Sikasso region of the country. The initiatives included an ambitious cropping systems component focused on the adoption of improved crop varieties (sorghum, groundnut, okra, eggplant, and tomato) and farming methods (cereal-legume intercropping, cereal-vegetable intercropping, and fertilizer microdosing). Livestock system interventions aimed at improving small ruminant production through improved feeding and vaccination, while natural resource management activities concentrated on the reduction of soil erosion through contour bunding. Program interventions also included a series of nutrition-oriented trainings directed to extension workers and women as well as the establishment of nutrition support groups.
Detelinova, Iva; Thomas, Timothy S.; Tian, Junyan; Hammond, Wole; Arndt, Channing. Washington, DC 2023
The most critical economic sectors vulnerable to climate change in Mozambique are agriculture,
transport, and potentially energy. In agriculture, maize is likely to be the most affected key crop. This can pose risks to food security (alongside expected higher food inflation because of climate change), given maize’s widespread cultivation and role in nutrition. The impact on other crops is likely to be more limited, and to a large extent driven by damages from increased frequency of extreme weather events. This could exacerbate challenges in the sector, which is already constrained by low productivity and limited arable areas. That said, climate change could create some opportunities; for example, rice yields are projected to improve. Most studies project agricultural production in the central region to be most adversely affected by climate change, albeit the impact varies by crop and within regions. Mozambique’s transport infrastructure is highly vulnerable to climate change due to the projected increase in flooding, the low proportion of paved roads, their limited interconnectivity, and the vulnerability of ports to cyclones and storm surges. Damages to Mozambique’s transport sector are likely to have knock-on effects to other sectors and can have significant regional implications, as the country serves as a conduit for landlocked neighboring countries. Infrastructure damages, alongside the projected coastal erosion, may severely affect the tourism sector. Furthermore, Mozambique’s high dependence on hydropower exposes it to losses from rainfall variability, which is expected to increase. The country’s largest hydropower plant is located downstream on the Zambezi River, which various studies project to dry up due to climate change. Increased water use in upstream countries (such as because of greater irrigation needs and in response to growing populations) could also pose risks to Mozambique’s hydropower sector.
Falk, Thomas; Walter, Kibet. Washington, DC; Nairobi, Kenya 2023
Working papers
Balana, Bedru; Adeyanju, Dolapo; Clingain, Clare; Andam, Kwaw S.; de Brauw, Alan; Yohanna, Ishaku; Olarewaju, Olukunbi; Schneider, Molly. Washington, DC 2023
Dorosh, Paul A.; Diao, Xinshen; Thurlow, James; Koirala, Pankaj; Timsina, Krishna; Krupnik, Timothy J.. Kathmandu, Nepal 2023
Pul, Hippolyt; Meinzen-Dick, Ruth Suseela; Konde, Bernard B.; Zogho, Donatus; Kuuchille, Emmanuel V.; McCarthy, Nancy; Marivoet, Wim. Washington, DC 2023
Dusingizimana, Petronille; Kazungu, Jules; Lalui, Armin; Milani, Peiman; Munanura, James; Nsabimana, Aimable; Sindi, Julius Kirimi; Spielman, David J.; Umugwaneza, Maryse. Washington, DC 2022
A food system comprises the full range of actors and activities originating from agriculture, livestock, forestry, or fisheries, as well as the broader economic, societal, and natural environments in which they operate. An inclusive and sustainable food systems transformation is a process of growth and development that is profitable for the full range of individual actors engaged in the system, beneficial for society including marginalized and vulnerable groups, and advantageous for the natural environment.
Rwanda’s journey towards a food systems transformation is well captured in Vision 2050, the National Strategy for Transformation (NST 1), and strategic plans for sectors such as agriculture, health, nutrition, commerce, and the environment. Their priorities are echoed in ongoing programs and investments of the government, its development partners, the private sector, and civil society.
Nonetheless, there are still challenges facing Rwanda’s efforts to sustain and accelerate progress along this journey. Efforts to overcome these challenges call for a deeper and more significant shift in thinking—informed by the food systems perspective—that is highlighted by stronger multi-sectoral approaches to problem-solving.
Overall findings suggest an opportunity for a tangible shift in how public policy in Rwanda approaches its food systems and how the systems contribute to the broader national transformation process. This means addressing how balances are struck—and tradeoffs are managed—between and among agriculture, nutrition, health, and the environment in the face of a climate crisis. It also means giving greater attention to the demand-side drivers in Rwanda’s food system, recognizing that singularly focused supply-side strategies rarely succeed in isolation. Finally, it means deepening the integration of policies and policy actors in the design and implementation phases of interventions that shape the food system.
We offer several recommendations to translate abstract ideas into a coherent and focused set of actions in the policy space.
1. Strengthen existing entities and mechanisms rather than create new ones.
2. Develop a national food systems transformation strategy that is integrative, multi-sectoral, and action-oriented.
3. Innovate on existing programs.
4. Allow for learning through both success and failure.
5. Invest in rigorous impact evaluation.
These actions aim to strengthen the policy environment that enables a truly broad-based food systems transformation. This enabling environment is itself an outcome of broad-based national conversations, integration across sectors, domains, and levels; and the encouragement of policy and program innovation.
Diaz-Bonilla, Eugenio; Furche, Carlos. Washington, DC 2021