Reports

× Sustainable intensification (SI) of the smallholder sector in Africa south of the Sahara is among the approaches pursued to build resilient food systems that can supply nutritionally adequate food in the face of rapid population growth and climatic changes. This study assesses the impact of Africa RISING, an SI program in Ghana implemented in the poorest and most food insecure areas of the country since 2012. The program first validated and then scaled up a wide range of SI interventions focused on improved agronomic management and crop cultivars; improved livestock feed, housing conditions, and species; crop-livestock integration; integrated natural resource management; vegetable production and nutritional education; and small-scale mechanization. Impact is estimated using two rounds of quasi-experimental panel data (conducted in 2014 and 2020), propensity score matching, and difference-indifferences techniques. The study design allows us to estimate the impact of Africa RISING by comparing outcomes among program beneficiaries with those of two different control groups—one residing in program villages (within village comparison) and another in non-program (control) villages (out-of-village comparison) on several indicators across five SI domains—environment, productivity, economic, human, and social. We also conduct a placebo test comparing non-beneficiaries in the two control groups. Results from panel data analyses show improvements in several indicators in the environmental and productivity domains. We also find a positive impact on use of conservation practices (fallowing, disc/moldboard ploughing, manure), groundnut yield, livestock, net crop income, and women’s likelihood of becoming members of farmers groups relative to non-beneficiaries. We do not find a statistically significant effect on consumption- and asset-based poverty rates, household dietary diversity, and several indicators of maternal and child nutrition. For both beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries, the share of monetary-based non-poor, dietary diversity, and food security have declined between baseline (2014) and follow-up (2020) likely due COVID-19. Our study highlights useful empirical lessons learned for informing future program design and impact assessments.

× Background | The challenges facing food, land, and water systems are numerous and complex. In addressing these interlinked challenges, the choices facing governments and their development partners have also become increasingly complicated. Synergies are possible, but trade-offs are often unavoidable. Decision-makers need better evidence to help them choose actions that minimize trade-offs and advance progress towards collective goals. The CGIAR Foresight Initiative aims to inform these choices and enhance decision-making about the future by combining advanced analytics and close engagement with national, regional, and global partners. The Initiative forms part of CGIAR’s new research portfolio, delivering science and innovation to transform food, land, and water systems in a climate crisis.
Objectives | The Foresight Partnership Forum brought together key partners from across Sub-Saharan Africa to explore challenges facing food, land, and water systems at national, regional, and global scales; identify opportunities to share and strengthen capacity for foresight; and examine ways to use foresight tools and analysis to inform policy making. The Forum on 24-25 January was followed by a training session on country development and policy modeling for partners on 26-27 January.

× IFPRI’s 2022 Annual Report presents highlights from our research work in low- and middle-income countries and on global challenges. In 2022, IFPRI provided critical analysis on the food systems impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and related food, fertilizer, and fuel price crisis, as well as the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Work in our strategic research areas—climate resilience and sustainability, healthy diets and nutrition, inclusive and efficient food systems, institutions and governance, and rural transformation, as well as cross-cutting work on gender—continued to inform policies and programs to end hunger and malnutrition sustainably at both national and global levels.

× This is a joint IFPRI-WFP study on the drivers, profile, and risks of irregular migration in the West Africa context. By taking a route-based approach to irregular migration in West Africa, the study examined migrants’ origins, their transit experience, and the situation where their journey stalls or ends.
Drawing on a mixed methods approach the study includes case studies in Mali and Libya, representing an analysis of the migration route of the Ténéré desert crossing of the south-central Sahara.
The overall analysis features the profiles of irregular migrants and the primary factors influencing their migration decisions. It also examines links between food insecurity and irregular migration to understand the risks and address the needs of this increasingly vulnerable population.

× The workshop was organized by the CGIAR Research Initiative on Low-Emission Food Systems (MITIGATE+), which is implemented by a large consortium of partners. The Initiative aims to reduce annual global food systems emissions by working closely with key actors in target countries to co-create knowledge that enables them to make evidence-based decisions and address challenges in food systems discourse, policy development, and implementation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Initiative’s partners support the establishment of a multistakeholder platform and a “living lab for people” (LL4P) that will support bottom-up innovation cases to help transform food systems in Nandi county, Kenya, while also reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The workshop was part of a series of stakeholder workshops that aims to help clarify development opportunities, the role of different actors in Nandi county, and their interests. The intention was to bring actors together, invite them to think about a joint vision for food systems in the county, and share perspectives on entry points for initiating system change.

× Substantial model variability exists regarding the likely meteorological impact of climate change on Kenya, particularly with respect to future precipitation levels. Significant regional differences are expected, largely due to Kenya’s diverse climate profile. Overall, temperatures are projected to increase while future precipitation levels are highly uncertain. Climate change is expected to significantly affect coastal areas, including because of sea level rise risks, stronger winds, and an overall warmer and drier climate. This will likely harm important ecosystems, including wetlands, mangroves, and coral reefs. Some models project that arid and semi-arid areas may become drier and hotter, which would exacerbate preexisting water scarcity and agricultural challenges for the already vulnerable communities living there. That said, these projections are not corroborated by all models. The climate change impact on other areas, particularly south and west of Mount Kenya, could generally be positive, as it would provide even better conditions for agriculture.
The key climate change risk for Kenya is from extreme events, in particular droughts and floods. The frequency and intensity of such events is likely to increase because of climate change. They also often lead to adverse knock-on effects, such as soil erosion, land degradation, and pest breakouts. Overall, Kenya’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) (2020) estimates that between 2010 and 2020, adverse climate change-related events led to annual socioeconomic losses of 3–5 percent of total gross domestic product (GDP).

× Climate change is not projected to materially alter Malawi’s climate profile. Instead, it is likely to exacerbate existing climate vulnerabilities by increasing the frequency and intensity of cyclones, floods, and droughts. This is largely due to increased uncertainty around future precipitation levels. These adverse effects have already started to materialize and are expected to increase substantially over the next decades, particularly if efforts to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by high emitting countries are insufficient. Climate change is also projected to increase average annual temperatures across the country.
Climate change is expected to significantly affect Malawi’s economy, mainly because of its dependence on climate-sensitive economic sectors and its low capacity to take adaptation measures due to preexisting macroeconomic vulnerabilities. Malawi’s sensitivity to climate shocks is underpinned by significant environmental degradation, in particular deforestation, watershed degradation, and poor soil management.
The two main impact channels are likely to be agriculture and road infrastructure. In agriculture, the increased uncertainty around future precipitation levels in Malawi will likely result in higher variability in crop yields. Climate change is projected to exacerbate preexisting environmental degradation challenges, including soil erosion. These effects are particularly problematic due to Malawi’s high poverty rate, lack of economic diversification (the agriculture sector represents one-third of the economy and employs over 70 percent of the workforce), and significant dependence on rainfed production (about 80 percent of the population). Climate change is likely to significantly impact Malawi’s road infrastructure, mainly due to increased risk of flooding, which would have broader economic and social knock-on impacts.

× Climate change is projected to cause an increase in average temperatures in Zambia and a decline in rainfall, particularly in the southern and western regions. The country experiences high rainfall variability, which climate change is expected to exacerbate, resulting in likely higher frequency and intensity of already reoccurring extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods. The combined effect of the temperature and precipitation projections is anticipated to cause a decrease in water availability at national level and to adversely affect the Zambezi, Kafue, and Luangwa River Basins. Overall, these trends will exacerbate existing vulnerabilities in southwestern Zambia, as the region is already prone to droughts (as well as floods in some parts). On the other hand, the northern parts of the country are projected to experience a slight increase in rainfall and to be overall relatively positively affected by climate change.
The key sectors most likely to be significantly affected by climate change in Zambia include agriculture, road infrastructure, and energy. In agriculture, the key risk stemming from climate change is the projected lower maize yields, as this is the country’s staple crop. Other crops are also expected to be adversely affected by higher temperatures, reduced rainfall, and increased occurrence of extreme events, particularly in southern and western Zambia. That said, changing climate conditions could create new agricultural opportunities in the north. Climate change is projected to negatively affect the livestock subsector, which will increase food security risks, particularly for subsistence farmers. In road infrastructure, the projected higher occurrence of flooding, especially in Lusaka Province, could have a knock-on effect for the rest of the economy, particularly if it damages key international corridors passing through this region and/or affects domestic supply chains. Zambia is significantly reliant on hydropower and is already experiencing severe power cuts due to drought. The risks in the sector are exacerbated by the location of key hydropower plants in the southern parts of the country and the projected drying up of main river basins. The electricity shortages have spillover effects on the rest of the economy, including the copper industry, Zambia’s key export. This has international implications, as Zambia is a top copper producer worldwide, and demand for copper is expected to increase significantly due to its crucial role in various green technologies. Thus, absent adaptation measures, the adverse impact of climate change in Zambia could affect global mitigation efforts and strategies.

× Mozambique is already vulnerable to extreme weather events and climate change is projected to exacerbate their frequency and intensity. The occurrence of cyclones and flooding has increased in recent years and the trend is expected to continue. The country’s coast—where 60 percent of the population, the three biggest cities, and critical infrastructure are situated—is most exposed to climate change-related risks, including damage from cyclones and projected sea level rise. Densely populated and low-lying regions, such as Zambezia, Nampula, Sofala, and Maputo Provinces, are particularly exposed to risks from flooding. More broadly, climate change is projected to increase average temperatures across the country and to result in higher variability in precipitation, especially in the south.
The most critical economic sectors vulnerable to climate change in Mozambique are agriculture,
transport, and potentially energy. In agriculture, maize is likely to be the most affected key crop. This can pose risks to food security (alongside expected higher food inflation because of climate change), given maize’s widespread cultivation and role in nutrition. The impact on other crops is likely to be more limited, and to a large extent driven by damages from increased frequency of extreme weather events. This could exacerbate challenges in the sector, which is already constrained by low productivity and limited arable areas. That said, climate change could create some opportunities; for example, rice yields are projected to improve. Most studies project agricultural production in the central region to be most adversely affected by climate change, albeit the impact varies by crop and within regions. Mozambique’s transport infrastructure is highly vulnerable to climate change due to the projected increase in flooding, the low proportion of paved roads, their limited interconnectivity, and the vulnerability of ports to cyclones and storm surges. Damages to Mozambique’s transport sector are likely to have knock-on effects to other sectors and can have significant regional implications, as the country serves as a conduit for landlocked neighboring countries. Infrastructure damages, alongside the projected coastal erosion, may severely affect the tourism sector. Furthermore, Mozambique’s high dependence on hydropower exposes it to losses from rainfall variability, which is expected to increase. The country’s largest hydropower plant is located downstream on the Zambezi River, which various studies project to dry up due to climate change. Increased water use in upstream countries (such as because of greater irrigation needs and in response to growing populations) could also pose risks to Mozambique’s hydropower sector.

× Climate change poses unprecedented challenges to the world’s food systems. Rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme weather events threaten agricultural production and the biodiversity and ecosystem services that underpin agriculture. Within food systems, climate change affects processing, storage, transport, and retailing of food and affects our food environments. These growing climate risks impact food security, nutrition, and human health, as well as equity and livelihoods, with poor food producers and consumers hit hardest. They make food systems a riskier source of income and reduce the availability of food — worsening poverty and inequity, disrupting livelihoods, and contributing to hunger and malnutrition. At the same time, food systems are failing to provide healthy diets for all, and are generating one-third of human-caused greenhouse gases. Solutions must address this complex nexus of problems. Climate change adaptation and resilience-building efforts for food systems must be accelerated to reverse growing malnutrition, ensure that all people can access healthy diets, and provide sustainable livelihoods. At the same time, efforts to transform food systems work to reduce their environmental footprint. Farmers and small businesses along food value chains in low- and middle-income countries will have to adapt their practices to a climate marked by extreme weather events and changing seasonal patterns in order to meet growing and changing food demand, while also contributing to mitigation. Support for this critical transformation requires not only the development, dissemination, and adoption of appropriate low-emissions, climate-smart technologies and practices, but also a focus on the policies, institutions, governance, and behavior change that can promote sustainable, inclusive food systems.

× This study evaluates the impact of Africa RISING, a sustainable intensification (SI) program, implemented in Bougouni, Yanfolila, and Koutiala cercles in southern Mali beginning in 2012. Using a participatory action research framework, the program validated and promoted alternative SI options including fertilized groundnut and sorghum, crop-legume intercropping, intercropping of two compatible legumes, access to extension services, and fertilizer microdosing, while preserving ecosystem services in the face of projected population growth and climatic changes. Impact is estimated on several SI indicators and domains using two rounds of quasi-experimental panel data (surveys conducted in 2014 and 2022) and difference-in-differences techniques. The unique study design allows us to estimate the impact of Africa RISINg by comparing outcomes among program beneficiaries with two different counterfactual groups—one located inside program villages (within-village comparison) and another in non-program (control) villages (out-of-village comparison) on several indicators across five SI domains— environment, productivity, economic, human, and social. We also conduct a placebo test comparing non-beneficiaries in the two counterfactual groups. We find no statistically significant differences among households in the within-village and out-of-village comparisons, most likely because of misreporting of program participation. Overall comparisons between households in target and non-target villages show a positive impact of AR on environmental variables such as access to extension services, implementation of intercropping techniques, and adoption of improved crops; on productivity variables such as green bean yield; and on economic variables such as an increase in the non-agricultural wealth index; but no statistically significant effect on human and social indicators, namely household dietary diversity, food consumption scores, and nutritional indicators for children 0–59 months old and women 15–49 years old. Estimates based on within-village, out-of-village, and placebo comparisons suggest important insights about the challenges in assessing the impact of agricultural programs in general and, specifically, participatory multi-intervention programs in the presence of sample (self-)selection and spillovers. Our study highlights useful empirical lessons learned to inform future program design and impact assessments.

× This study evaluates the impact of Africa RISING, a large-scale sustainable intensification (SI) program that has been implemented in Central Malawi’s Dedza and Ntcheu districts beginning in 2012. Using a participatory action research framework, the program validated and promoted alternative SI options including fertilized maize, maize-legume intercropping, intercropping of two compatible legumes, cereal-legume rotation, and double-row planting of legumes. Impact is estimated on several SI indicators and domains using two rounds of panel data and difference-in-differences techniques. The unique study design allowed us to estimate impact by comparing outcomes among program beneficiaries with two different counterfactual groups—one located inside program villages (within village comparison) and another in non-program (control) villages (out-of-village comparison). We also conduct a placebo test comparing non-beneficiaries in the two counterfactual groups. The within-village comparison shows positive impact on several agricultural and economic indicators including access to agricultural information, value of harvest, on-farm diversity, labor productivity, annual net household income, per capita household consumption expenditure, household wealth, commercial orientation, and household dietary diversity score. We do not find a statistically significant impact on human indicators such as child and maternal nutrition. Estimates based on within-village, out-of-village, and placebo comparisons suggest important insights about the challenges in assessing the impact of agricultural programs in general and, specifically, participatory multi-intervention programs in the presence of sample (self-)selection and spillovers. Our study highlights important lessons learned to inform future program design and impact assessments.

× Interventions/Innovations
Africa RISING (AR) initiatives in Mali were implemented in Bougouni, Yanfolila, and Koutiala cercles (administrative units) in the Sikasso region of the country. The initiatives included an ambitious cropping systems component focused on the adoption of improved crop varieties (sorghum, groundnut, okra, eggplant, and tomato) and farming methods (cereal-legume intercropping, cereal-vegetable intercropping, and fertilizer microdosing). Livestock system interventions aimed at improving small ruminant production through improved feeding and vaccination, while natural resource management activities concentrated on the reduction of soil erosion through contour bunding. Program interventions also included a series of nutrition-oriented trainings directed to extension workers and women as well as the establishment of nutrition support groups.

× HarvestPlus improves nutrition and health by working with partners worldwide to develop and promote biofortified crops that are rich in vitamins and minerals, and providing leadership on biofortification evidence and technology.

× South Asia is primarily an agrarian economy facing the five transitions of population growth, urbanization, increasing income, shift toward animal-based food, and climate change simultaneously. In the process of ensuring food sufficiency under the intertwined challenges posed by these ongoing transitions, the boundaries of natural resources have been violated with adverse impacts on the health of the ecosystem. The application of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is viewed as an important strategy for imparting resilience to the food system in addressing the interconnected issues of food security through improved productivity and adaptation to and mitigation of the impacts of climate change. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) South Asia, in collaboration with its national partners, charted out and pursued studies for the policy and institutions required in upscaling CSA for the extensive South Asia region taking these broad CSA objectives in consideration. The important subthemes of this report include prioritization of CSA technologies for different agroclimatic regions, government policies for CSA, index-based insurance and climate risk management, and climate-smart investment and its implications on food security and farmers’ income.

× PIM had a productive final year centered on synthesizing findings while continuing to respond to demand on the impacts of COVID-19 and preparing the transition to the new CGIAR portfolio. PIM findings and engagement contributed to Myanmar’s response to COVID-19, South Africa’s policies on resilience to climate change, Tunisia's policies for pastoral development, a reform of Nigeria’s national agricultural research system, Ghana’s fish seed and farm certification system, gender strategies for three agricultural value chains in Honduras, and genome editing guidelines for the agricultural sector in four African countries. PIM research informed policy documents of FAO, IFAD, One CGIAR, the UK Government, the World Bank and the World Food Programme. PIM tools enabled more equitable co-management of 76 protected areas in Peru and informed World Bank social protection projects. Books on food security in Bangladesh and Malawi, trade in Latin America, African agricultural value chains and gender were published. 42 PIM synthesis briefs and notes were issued, summarizing research results in key thematic areas. PIM contributed 181 journal articles, 8 journal issues (on demand driven seed systems, China’s response to COVID-19, agriculture and food security in China under COVID-19, food loss and waste, landscape restoration, multistakeholder fora in forestry and two issues on gender), 15 book chapters and about 500 non-peer-reviewed outputs. 16 PIM webinars were organized. PIM’s contributions to the United Nations Food Systems Summit covered agricultural extension, food system innovations and digital technologies, the future of small farms, the science-policy interface, the cost of ending hunger by 2030, food waste and loss, management of the commons and gender. Building on past PIM investments in economywide modeling tools and social accounting matrices, PIM teams continued to assess the impacts of COVID-19 and policy responses at country level. Lessons learned from PIM country-level analyses on COVID-19’s impacts on food systems, poverty and diets are summarized in a chapter of the IFPRI 2022 book “COVID19 and global food security: Two years later”. A paper in partnership with the CGIAR COVID19 Hub reviewed the literature on agri-food value chains for evidence of fractures and resilience in response to the pandemic. The results of coordinated studies on the impacts of COVID-19 on value chains in different countries were published. Several cross-CGIAR outputs initiated by PIM speak to the fulfillment of PIM’s convening role as an integrating program: the CGIAR Foresight Report and CGIAR foresight website; several outputs produced through the CGIAR Community of Excellence on Seed Systems Development, and the CGIAR book “Advancing gender equality through agricultural and environmental research: Past, present, and future” are examples. Other examples of PIM global public goods produced in 2021 are 27 innovations at various stages of uptake, a cross-cutting effort to distill PIM lessons on migration; new or updated social accounting matrices for 25 countries; and lessons and tools on stakeholder platforms for natural resource governance. Independent reviews assessed the effectiveness of PIM’s partnerships and the use by partners of PIM’s work on economywide modelling, agricultural insurance, tenure and governance, and the Ag-Incentives database.

× IFPRI’s 2021 Annual Report presents highlights from our research work around the world. Cutting-edge research on the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and related policies, and on our strategic research areas—climate resilience and sustainability, healthy diets and nutrition, inclusive and efficient food systems, institutions and governance, and rural transformation, as well as cross-cutting work on gender—is helping to inform policies and programs to end hunger and malnutrition.

× The second annual Global Food 50/50 Report, a joint initiative of Global Health 50/50, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), and UN Women, reviews the gender- and equity-related policies and practices of 51 global food system organizations. The report highlights the progress, or lack thereof, made by food organizations in promoting diversity and equality in their leadership and decision-making. In addition to the annual leadership analysis, this year’s report assesses the board members of governing bodies, finding gender inequalities in board representation and dominance by nationals from high-income countries.

× The agriculture sector in Bhutan has evolved progressively from subsistence to integrated semi-commercial sector, and encompasses forestry, agriculture, and livestock, collectively termed as Renewable Natural Resources (RNR). Systematic development since the 1960s has helped improve production of crops, livestock, and overall management of natural resources. Agriculture continues to be a major source of employment after five decades of planned development, with a staggering 51 percent of its population in farming, of which 61.7 percent are female (NSB 2019). Bhutan has also successfully maintained 71 percent of its natural forest cover (FRMD 2018), representing extensive carbon sequestration sink and making the country carbon-negative. Bhutan’s “green” approach to development, founded on the philosophy of Gross National Happiness and more particularly its local values, culture, and religious beliefs of coexistence with nature, has helped in maintaining remarkably stable forest cover and clean environment. Forest cover in Bhutan consists predominantly of broad-leaved trees accounting for 50 percent coverage (1.928 million ha), while 20 percent cover is provided by coniferous trees. The estimated forest biomass of about 973 million tonnes serves as a significant terrestrial carbon sink, amounting to 457 million tonnes of carbon (FRMD 2018). The forests of Bhutan show a wide range of ecological variation and species diversity offering wide variety of social and economic benefits, ranging from easily quantifiable economic values associated with forest products to less tangible services and contributions to society, thereby serving as the foundation of sustainable development. This initiative of collaboration resulted into formalization of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the Ministry of Agriculture and Forests (MoAF) and IFPRI on July 19, 2019, that defines the areas of cooperation between the two institutions. Since the initiation of this MoU in late 2018, MoAF and IFPRI started working on the collaboration which focused on capacity development of MoAF in policy analysis and visioning. This report aims to provide synopsis of MoAF–IFPRI collaborations from 2018 to 2020, highlighting the main output and defining areas of future collaborations.

× The CGIAR results framework includes annual reporting of the major innovations and policy contributions from CGIAR research funded through the CRPs. This report complements information on the 2018 CGIAR Results Dashboard and in the annual report by providing a descriptive analysis, including a deeper dive into some specific countries. The analysis disaggregates policy outcomes by CRP type and maps them with the Food and Agriculture Policy Classification to parse their relative orientation toward consumption, production, or trade policies. It also maps them against the One CGIAR five Impact Areas to assess the level of alignment in selected countries. This report concludes with recommendations for a set of policy outcomes for which impact assessments could be conducted.

× IFPRI’s 2020 Annual Report presents highlights from our research work around the world. Cutting-edge research on the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and related policies, and on our strategic research areas—climate resilience and sustainability, healthy diets and nutrition, inclusive and efficient food systems, institutions and governance, and rural transformation, as well as cross-cutting work on gender—is helping to inform policies and programs to end hunger and malnutrition.

× This report assesses the cost of adaptation to climate change across a range of future climate scenarios and investment options. We focus on offsetting climate change impacts on hunger through investment in agricultural research, water management, and rural infrastructure in developing countries. We link climate, crop, water, and economic models to (1) analyze scenarios of future change in the agriculture sector to 2050 and (2) assess trade-offs for these investments across key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for poverty, hunger, and water. Our reference projections show that climate change slows progress toward eliminating hunger, with an additional 78 million people facing chronic hunger in 2050 relative to a no-climate-change future, over half of them in Africa south of the Sahara. Increased investments can offset these impacts. Achieving this would require that annual investment in international agricultural research increase from US$1.62 billion to US$2.77 billion per year between 2015 and 2050. Additional water and infrastructure investments are estimated to be more expensive than agricultural R&D at about US$12.7 billion and US$10.8 billion per year, respectively, but these address key gaps to support transformation toward food system resiliency. Findings on ranges of costs and trade-offs and complementarities across SDGs will help policymakers make better-informed choices between alternative investment strategies.

× In 2020, PIM findings contributed to seed policies in Nepal and Uganda, Malawi’s extension strategy and approval of insect-resistant cotton, a nationwide program aimed at improving the effectiveness of public service delivery in Uganda, social protection programs in Egypt, and school gardens for better nutrition in Papua New Guinea. At the global level, PIM research was used to shape strategic decisions of organizations such as the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, GIZ, the Inter-American Development Bank, the UK Government's Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, the World Bank and the World Health Organization. PIM tools were incorporated in universities’ curricula in India and South Africa. Examples of PIM innovations scaled up by partners in 2020 are private sector seed marketing in Ethiopia, picture-based insurance in Ethiopia, India and Kenya, and tools for inclusive governance of natural resources in India and Peru.

× The importance of a resilient agriculture sector in providing food security, livelihoods, and household income was highlighted in many countries by the recent pandemic, as was the capacity of the sector to cushion the negative impacts of the subsequent economic slowdown. This has been the case in Egypt, where agriculture has been resilient to the health crisis in comparison with the service and industry sectors (Breisinger et al. 2020). However, the sector’s resiliency is gradually being corroded by climate change, with lasting, harmful effects for agriculture and food systems.

× Sustainable food production needs to increase if it is to meet the rising and evolving food demands caused by growing populations, increasing incomes and urbanization. However, it faces numerous challenges. Competition for water resources is increasing – not only between people and the natural environment, but between cities and rural areas as well. Overuse of water due to wasteful irrigation management is worsening water scarcity. Climate change is bringing higher temperatures and changing precipitation patterns, as well as a higher likelihood of increased weather variability and extreme events. At the same time, agriculture is a major contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, so sustainable agriculture intensification also needs to address climate change by reducing GHG emissions and sequestering carbon.

× Building Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change (BRACC) is a five year program whose main objective is to strengthen the resilience of poor and vulnerable households to withstand current and future weather and climate-related shocks and stresses in four districts in Southern Malawi: Balaka, Chikwawa, Mangochi and Phalombe. Resilience is operationalized as the ability of households to smooth consumption in response to shocks and stresses. This baseline report introduces the evaluation context and describes the BRACC program, details the evaluation design, summarizes main findings from the baseline household survey, and tests whether the randomizations successfully balanced baseline observable characteristics across the treatment arms.

× In 2019, research conducted under the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) informed policies and investments of governments, development agencies, non-governmental organizations and private companies in Africa, Asia and Latin America. PIM contributed to investment plans and policies in Afghanistan, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Rwanda; scaling up of digital advisory services in Ethiopia and of payments for agrobiodiversity conservation in Peru; biotechnology advances in Nigeria; renewal of community forest concessions in Guatemala; and improved rangeland governance in Ethiopia and Tanzania. At the global level, PIM research was used to shape the European Union biofuel policy as well as strategic decisions of several organizations such as the Asian Development Bank, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, CGIAR, UK’s Department for International Development, the Inter-American Development Bank, the International Fund for Agricultural Development, USAID and the World Health Organization. An external review of the outcomes of PIMsupported foresight modeling work was completed.

× Ethiopia has made consistent progress in improving development indicators, but vulnerability to extreme weather events is a continuing concern, especially for people reliant on agriculture for their livelihoods. The 2015/16 El Niño event caused both a severe drought and flooding, which highlighted the remarkable improvements in the country’s resilience and the remaining challenges in ensuring that everyone “bounces back” relatively quickly from adverse climatic shocks. Given the links between climate change, cyclical droughts, and poverty, and the high cost of emergency humanitarian assistance, the Government of Ethiopia and development partners decided to review the country’s resilience programming and identify opportunities and challenges to building greater resilience into the agricultural system. This work included three components: a review of the literature and government programs on resilience in Ethiopia; key informant interviews in several regions of the country; and quantitative crop modeling and economywide analyses to inform resilience programming.

× Pakistan is vulnerable to climate change impacts. Like many developing countries, it is also facing the challenge of dealing with governance of climate change and restructuring associated institutions. It is estimated that the future cost of climate impact would be around $6 billion to $14 billion annually over the next 40 years. Ministry of Climate Change is now focusing in creating necessary infrastructure and platforms for policy decisions and implementation.

× About 518 million people in Asia and the Pacific suffered from hunger in 2017—1 million more than in the previous year. Farmers face challenges such as shrinking natural resources, degrading environments, and declining labor availability in addition to climate change and financial non-viability. The demand for food and nutrition is also increasing. With all this, more investment in agriculture is needed to accomplish Sustainable Development Goal 2—ending hunger and malnutrition by 2030. In the report, findings presented were taken from the analysis of recent trends in food security, gross domestic product, and population growth as well as agricultural supply, demand, and trade.

× Agriculture continues to play a vital role in Indonesia’s economic development. The sector contributes significantly to the country’s gross domestic product, provides jobs for nearly 30% of the workforce, and has the essential function of providing food security. The report assesses the country’s agricultural investments and policies, and evaluates the economy-wide impacts of alternative agricultural scenarios. The results show that Indonesia can virtually end hunger by 2030 with an appropriate mix of investments in agricultural research and development, irrigation expansion and water use efficiency, and rural infrastructure. The report makes key policy recommendations to support government efforts to mobilize these investments, which will also contribute to the country’s economic growth.

× This report presents results of a study to assess the use of foresight modeling tools and outputs produced since 2012 and funded through Flagship 1, Cluster 1.1 of the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM). The goal of this study is to examine how the tools and outputs of foresight modeling supported by PIM through Flagship 1 (hereafter “PIM-supported foresight modeling”) have been used by stakeholders. The study aims to identify as many uses of and outcomes from the PIM-supported foresight modeling as possible. It is by no means comprehensive, but it does cover usage by a wide range of stakeholders from across the CGIAR system, other international organizations, academia, and national governments.

× The study found that dynamic crop models have the accuracy to predict normal to high yields, but there are limits to their ability to capture low yields. On the other hand, the machine learning (CNN) model has better ability to capture lower yields. It is worth noting that the crop model only took into consideration mainly the weather data to predict yields; it is handicapped by the paucity of detailed management information deployed by farmers. However, the pictures sent by farmers reflected more yield-determining characteristics that reflected crop health and yield and that were then captured by the CNN. Finally, among the picture characteristics parameters, if “GCC & H” correlations are high, this could be a good indicator of low yield.

× During this conference, the CCAFS Learning Platform for Agricultural Insurance, led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and implemented in partnership with the CGIAR research program for Policies, Institutions and Markets (PIM), organized a series of networking and outreach events. The events were targeting the international insurance community, including policymakers, practitioners and CGIAR researchers with interest in research on weather-related agricultural insurance. Three events were organized. First, together with Innovations for Poverty Action (IPA), we held a matchmaking session linking researchers and insurance practitioners around key challenges in providing microinsurance. Second, CGIAR researchers met to coordinate research agendas and discuss strategies for evidence building and joint resource mobilization. Third, the CGIAR hosted a session to demonstrate the value of partnerships between the global insurance and agricultural research communities in addressing challenges to scaling agricultural insurance, with examples from CGIAR insurance initiatives.

× The main objective of this report is to identify interventions that work and recommend options for policies and programs to eliminate hunger and malnutrition in all its forms. The report begins with a review of the African and global policy agenda, setting out the challenges and complexity of addressing all forms of malnutrition in Africa. It then offers an overview of successful interventions and innovative approaches that have been implemented in some countries and discusses critical threats—climate change and conflicts—that jeopardize progress on reducing malnutrition. Lastly, the report reviews the experiences of seven African countries that have been particularly successful in reducing malnutrition levels and draws some important lessons for other countries.

× The Bridge Collaborative links experts in the global health, environment, and development fields to tackle one of the largest remaining challenges for cross-sector impact: our fragmented evidence base. We aim to develop an approach that spans across these interdependent sectors to generate a shared evidence base that will inform strategies, shape policies, reduce unintended negative consequences, and direct funding decisions for more sustainable and equitable development.

× This study showed how arid and semi-arid areas of Kenya are particularly affected by undernutrition in women and children. Despite undernutrition improving in the rest of the country, in the ASAL areas the trends appear to be negative, particularly with respect to wasting in children and women being underweight. Temperature shocks emerge as the most detrimental factor for nutrition, again especially in ASAL areas. Droughts, on the other hand, seem to play a significant role only in affecting stunting, while NDVI plays a mixed role, with some cases where more vegetation is associated with higher levels of undernutrition. Overall, the availability of a non-agricultural job within the household is positively associated with nutritional outcomes, as is women’s education, especially in ASAL counties. However, they are also associated with bigger losses in the event of temperature shocks, which raises a query on the role of non–agricultural activities in increasing resilience. Results show that expected climate change bears the potential to greatly harm the Kenyan population living in ASAL areas, and that what is currently believed to be viable solutions to increase resilience may not deliver the results promised. More investigation and research is needed to identify programming strategies to implement, which will enable populations to better cope with climate change and the associated challenges ahead.

× This food policy report is a response to growing concerns about the impacts of climate change on Latin American economies, agriculture, and people. It assesses both local and global effects of changing agricultural yields on the economy, subnational regions, and different household types, including male- and female-headed households in Brazil, Mexico, and Peru. The three countries reflect economic and geographic diversity in Latin America and more than half of the region’s population. Climate change impacts tend to be relatively small at an economywide level in all three countries. However, sectoral and household-level economic impacts tend to be diverse across countries and subnational levels. They mainly depend on projected changes in agricultural yields, the share of agriculture in regional gross domestic product (GDP), crop-specific international trade balances, net food buyer/seller position, and income diversification of households. As for gender, results from this study suggest that female-headed households may be less vulnerable than male-headed households to the effects of climate change, highlighting the importance of considering women as a source for solutions for building resilience to climate change. Given the relatively small impacts of climate change and the degree of uncertainty associated with them, it is too early to define specific policy recommendations. All three countries should try to maximize the benefits that may come with higher agricultural world market prices and to minimize the losses from reductions in agricultural yields.

× The overall objective of the ER+ component is to assist ultra-poor women and their families in disaster-prone areas of Bangladesh in lifting themselves above the lower poverty line toward greater food security. To achieve the objective, a third “promotional” year has been introduced to ER, during which women—either ER laborers/trainees themselves or the wives, daughters, mothers, or sisters of male ER laborers/trainees—receive a substantive cash grant to invest in a productive asset or income-generating activity in combination with relevant business-related training, a one-year monthly cash allowance, and intensive follow-up support. The resulting model therefore combines the pre-existing “protective” elements (employment generation and
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community asset development) with “promotional” elements for a more viable pathway out of extreme poverty and toward food security

× After decades on the sidelines, agriculture and food security have recently found their place at the top of the global development and policy agendas. In a world where 900 million people are undernourished and 2 billion are micronutrient deficient, ensuring access to nutritious foods is critical to lifting more than 1 billion poor people out of poverty.

× This food policy report reviews resilience processes, activities, and outcomes by examining a number of case studies of initiatives by nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) to enhance resilience capacity, and draws implications for policymakers and other stakeholders looking to strengthen resilience.

× Sound policies, robust institutions, and well-function­ing markets complement technological discovery in agricultural science to ensure that consumers have access to nutritious and affordable food, producers have incentives to plant and harvest, and the myriad participants in complex value chains are well linked in mutually beneficial connections. The CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) provides foundations of anal­ysis and knowledge for food systems that help smallholder farmers and poor consumers live better lives.

× This Food Policy Report explains why there is a need to place even higher priority on food security-related policies and programs in conflict-prone countries, and offers insights for policymakers regarding how to do so. To understand the relationship between conflict and food security, this report builds a new conceptual framework of food security and applies it to four case studies on Egypt, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. It argues that food security-related policies and programs build resilience to conflict insofar as they are expected not only to help countries and people cope with and recover from conflict but also to contribute to preventing conflicts and support economic development more broadly: by helping countries and people become even better off.

× This report is timely input into the ongoing development agenda for Africa South of the Sahara (SSA). The 2013 report on agriculture and food systems by the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Solutions Network released a set of post–2015 development goals, including recommendations that lowand middle-income countries increase their spending on agricultural research and development (R&D) by a minimum of 5 percent per year during 2015–2025, and that they allocate at least 1 percent of their agricultural gross development product (GDP) to public agricultural R&D.1 More recently, the Science Agenda for Agriculture in Africa was adopted at the African Heads of State Summit, necessitating the development of a continent-wide implementation plan. This report, which summarizes SSA’s recent progress in developing its national agricultural R&D systems, is intended to serve as an important input into, and potential benchmark for, the implementation of the science agenda in SSA and the broader development agenda for the region.

× The purpose of the work presented in this report is to demonstrate that policymakers have tools at their disposal that provide significant help in the evaluation of trade-offs, opportunities, and repercussions of the policies under consideration. This report focuses on Colombia, however the analytical framework can be applied to any country interested in exploring country-wide effects and economic viability of policies that aim to reduce GHG emissions from agriculture. Results provided in this study should be seen as an example of the potential applications of the framework developed. We were able to identify policies covering the entire spectrum of potential outcomes: win-win policies (reduce land allocated to pasture), policies with tradeoffs (reduce deforestation in the Amazon) and policies that seem to generate clearly inferior results (increase the area allocate to palm cultivation).

× This study employs IFPRI’s IMPACT model to generate projections of global fi sh supply and demand. IMPACT covers the world in 115 model regions for a range of agricultural commodities, to which fi sh and fi sh products are added for this study. As is the case with most global modeling work, an important value that IMPACT brings to this study is an internally consistent framework for analyzing and organizing the underlying data. However, there are known data and methodology issues that arise from choices made by the key researchers for the purposes of maintaining computational tractability, internal analytical consistency, and overall simplicity.

× The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) was developed at IFPRI at the beginning of the 1990s to address a lack of long-term vision and consensus among policy-makers and researchers about the actions that are necessary to feed the world in the future, reduce poverty, and protect the natural resource base. In 1993, these same long-term global concerns launched the 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment Initiative which created the opportunity for further development of the IMPACT model. In 1995 the first results using IMPACT were published as a 2020 Vision discussion paper: Global Food Projections to 2020: Implications for Investment (Rosegrant et al. 1995) in which the effects of population, investment, and trade scenarios on food security and nutrition status, especially in developing countries, were analyzed.

IMPACT continues to serve as the basis for research examining the linkage between the production of key food commodities and food demand and security at the national level in the context of scenarios of future change. Studies focus on regional issues, commodity-level analyses, and cross-cutting thematic issues. IMPACT is also embedded in a variety of major global assessments to complement interdisciplinary, scenario-based work on the future of food supply and demand. The first comprehensive set of results for IMPACT were published in the book Global Food Projections to 2020 (Rosegrant et al. 2001). These projections—which were presented in 2001 at the IFPRI-sponsored conference in Bonn entitled: Sustainable Food Security for All by 2020—are presented with details on the demand system and other underlying data used in the projections work, and cover both global and regionally-focused projections. A complete list of the research published using the IMPACT modeling framework is provided in Appendix 1, including reports for international organizations, such as the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the FAO, and national governments.

NOTE: The 2008 version is superceded by this 2012 version, and the 2008 version is retained for archival purposes and researching using this model should use the documentation from 2012.

× In 2010, the international development community focused on a range of complex issues—childhood malnutrition, natural disasters, volatile food prices, climate change, global trade—that require both immediate and long-term attention. As these subjects have direct implications for poverty and hunger, IFPRI sought ways to address them through evidence-based research, outreach, and concrete policy recommendations. For example, recent findings showing that the window of opportunity for improving children’s nutrition spans the 1,000-day period between conception and a child’s second birthday led IFPRI to recommend that governments invest in nutrition interventions targeting mothers and infants. IFPRI’s research in Pakistan after the devastating 2010 floods led to policy-relevant observations on post-disaster recovery, including the need to strengthen institutions in developing countries so they are better prepared to coordinate large-scale disaster responses. On the topic of volatile food prices, IFPRI recommended that, among other approaches, governments reform biofuel policies, especially in the United States and Europe, to reduce biofuels’ effects on food markets.

× Final results document

× This report presents the results of a stakeholder analysis, which had the following objectives: - to identify potential partners in the research process, - to find out which organizations could make use of the research findings in their activities, and - to derive implications for the communication and outreach strategy of the research project. In addition to a review of documents and individual interviews, a stakeholder analysis workshop was conducted in Ethiopia on August 9, 2011. A participatory mapping tool referred to as Net-Map was used to conduct the stakeholder analysis. The results of the stakeholder analysis are expected to be useful not only for the “Enhancing Assets” project, but also for other organizations and projects that work in this policy field.

× This report presents the results of a stakeholder analysis, which had the following objectives: - to identify potential partners in the research process, - to find out which organizations could make use of the research findings in their activities, and - to derive implications for the communication and outreach strategy of the research project. In addition to a review of documents and individual interviews, a stakeholder analysis workshop was conducted in Kenya on August 16, 2011. A participatory mapping tool referred to as Net-Map was used to conduct the stakeholder analysis. The results of the stakeholder analysis are expected to be useful not only for the “Enhancing Assets” project, but also for other organizations and projects that work in this policy field.

× This report presents the results of a stakeholder analysis, which had the following objectives: -to identify potential partners in the research process, to find out which organizations could make use of the research findings in their activities, and -to derive implications for the communication and outreach strategy of the research project. In addition to a review of documents and individual interviews, a stakeholder analysis workshop was conducted in Bangladesh on November 15, 2011. A participatory mapping tool referred to as Net-Map was used to conduct the stakeholder analysis. The results of the stakeholder analysis are expected to be useful not only for the “Enhancing Assets” project, but also for other organizations and projects that work in this policy field.

× This report presents the results of a stakeholder analysis, which had the following objectives: - to identify potential partners in the research process, - to find out which organizations could make use of the research findings in their activities, and - to derive implications for the communication and outreach strategy of the research project. In addition to a review of documents and individual interviews, a stakeholder analysis workshop was conducted in Ethiopia on August 9, 2011. A participatory mapping tool referred to as Net-Map was used to conduct the stakeholder analysis. The results of the stakeholder analysis are expected to be useful not only for the “Enhancing Assets” project, but also for other organizations and projects that work in this policy field.

× Recent years have been difficult for the world's poor and hungry. By 2009, the worst of the dramatic food price increases had passed, but the world was still reeling from the global economic downturn. As a result, economic activity has lagged, and industrial countries have largely failed to fulfill their commitments to fund efforts to reduce hunger and improve food security. The number of hungry people spiked to more than 1 billion in 2009; the Millennium Development Goal of halving the proportion of hungry people by 2015 looked farther away than ever.

× The objective of this report is to provide an assessment of the impact of climate change and variability on the agriculture sector and economy of Kenya as an initial task to devise adaptation strategies for smallholders in selected agro-ecological zones of the country.

× As the global population grows and incomes in poor countries rise, so too, will the demand for food, placing additional pressure on sustainable food production. Climate change adds a further challenge, as changes in temperature and precipitation threaten agricultural productivity and the capacity to feed the world's population. This study assesses how serious the danger to food security might be and suggests some steps policymakers can take to remedy the situation.

× The Challenge: The unimpeded growth of greenhouse gas emissions is raising the earth's temperature. The consequences include melting glaciers, more precipitation, more and more extreme weather events, and shifting seasons. The accelerating pace of climate change, combined with global population and income growth, threatens food security everywhere. Agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change. Higher temperatures eventually reduce yields of desirable crops while encouraging weed and pest proliferation. Changes in precipitation patterns increase the likelihood of short-run crop failures and long-run production declines. Although there will be gains in some crops in some regions of the world, the overall impacts of climate change on agriculture are expected to be negative, threatening global food security. Populations in the developing world, which are already vulnerable and food insecure, are likely to be the most seriously affected. In 2005, nearly half of the economically active population in developing countries-2.5 billion people- relied on agriculture for its livelihood. Today, 75 percent of the world's poor live in rural areas. This Food Policy Report presents research results that quantify the climate-change impacts mentioned above, assesses the consequences for food security, and estimates the investments that would offset the negative consequences for human well-being. This analysis brings together, for the first time, detailed modeling of crop growth under climate change with insights from an extremely detailed global agriculture model, using two climate scenarios to simulate future climate.

× IMPACT – the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade –was developed at IFPRI at the beginning of the 1990s, upon the realization that there was a lack of long-term vision and consensus among policy makers and researchers about the actions that are necessary to feed the world in the future, reduce poverty, and protect the natural resource base. In 1993, these same long-term global concerns launched the 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture and the Environment Initiative. This initiative created the opportunity for further development of the IMPACT model, and in 1995 the first results using IMPACT were published as a 2020 Vision discussion paper: Global Food Projections to 2020: Implications for Investment (Rosegrant, Agcaoili-Sombilla and Perez, 1995), in which the effects of population, investment, and trade scenarios on food security and nutrition status, especially in developing countries, were analyzed.

IMPACT has been used in several important research publications, which examine the linkage between the production of key food commodities and food demand and security at the national level. Such examples can be found in the paper looking at the relationship between meatintensive diets in developed nations and food security in developing countries, Alternative Futures for World Cereal and Meat Consumption (Rosegrant, Leach and Gerpacio, 1999); or the article Global Projections for Root and Tuber Crops to the Year 2020 (Scott, Rosegrant and Ringler, 2000), which gives a detailed analysis of roots and tuber crops and their importance to the food economies of the poor. The report Livestock to 2020: The next food revolution (Delgado et al., 1999) assesses the rise in livestock demand in developing countries that was trigged by rising incomes in recent decades, and considers the current and expected future developments of this “livestock revolution”, as well as its implications for policy.

NOTE: This 2008 version is superseded by the 2012 version, and that this 2008 version is retained for archival purposes and researching using this model should use the documentation from 2012.

× The world food situation is currently being rapidly redefined by new driving forces. Income growth, climate change, high energy prices, globalization, and urbanization are transforming food consumption, production, and markets. The influence of the private sector in the world food system, especially the leverage of food retailers, is also rapidly increasing. Changes in food availability, rising commodity prices, and new producer–consumer linkages have crucial implications for the livelihoods of poor and food-insecure people. Analyzing and interpreting recent trends and emerging challenges in the world food situation is essential in order to provide policymakers with the necessary information to mobilize adequate responses at the local, national, regional, and international levels. It is also critical for helping to appropriately adjust research agendas in agriculture, nutrition, and health. Not surprisingly, renewed global attention is being given to the role of agriculture and food in development policy, as can be seen from the World Bank’s World Development Report, accelerated public action in African agriculture under the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD), and the Asian Development Bank’s recent initiatives for more investment in agriculture, to name just a few examples.