Working Papers

× The nations that signed the Paris Agreement periodically submit Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) with climate mitigation and adaptation goals. Complementarily, countries should also formulate and implement National Adaptation Plans (NAP) and periodically update them. This means that every country is required by law to outline a course of action in response to global warming and submit a pledge with specific objectives it is committed to achieving. These pledges are then reviewed and renewed every five years. Every round of pledges is meant to intensify the level of commitment and is negotiable, meaning that other parties can offer concessions or support in return for a more robust pledge. The pledge and review method were introduced first in 1991; however, in 1997, the international community chose to adopt legally binding emission reduction targets in the Kyoto Protocol. The pledge and review methods were reintroduced in the 2009 Copenhagen Accord, following its limited success and the inability to reach an agreement on new targets. The NDC wording took the place of the pledge-and-review expression in the negotiations that resulted in the Paris Agreement.

× The results of the recently released Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) 4th Biennial Review (BR) report indicate that Africa’s performance in 2023 toward achieving the Malabo Declaration commitments by 2025 has strayed farther away from being on-track. Using a scorecard method to review progress in 58 indicators that represent the commitments, previous BR reports show that the number of countries assessed to be on-track to achieve the commitments has dwindled over time, from twenty in 2017 to four in 2019 and only one in 2021. In the 4th BR in 2023, none of the 49 participating countries was on on-track. This seems to conflict with evidence of positive trends in other continent-level reports on related development indicators. According to the African Economic Outlook for example, the contribution of agriculture to overall economic growth in Africa has remained stable, especially as growth in the services and industry sectors has been irregular—and even negative in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The latest editions of the Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor, Africa Agriculture Status Report, and Annual Trends and Outlook Report5 also show substantial progress in terms of expansion of agricultural investments, trade, and growth and improvement in poverty and nutrition outcomes, amid challenges associated with the pandemic, climate change, conflicts, and epidemics such as the locust and fall armyworm infestations. The BR scoring method and data have some issues that contribute to the seemingly worsening performance.

× Intervention Context: WFP’s activities in Burkina Faso and Niger focus on fragile agrarian communities in the Sahel, where cyclical floods and droughts combine with decreasing soil fertility and increasing desertification, among other challenges, to aggravate food and livelihood insecurity. Increased competition for land for food crops and pastures as well as water for domestic, productive, and livestock use, intensify conflicts over ownership and usage rights for land and the commons such as forests. in particular, this competition has heightened conflicts between farmers and herders. Layered on these localized conflicts are recent increases in human safety and security concerns related to the spread of attacks by violent extremist groups across the eastern flanks of both countries. The increasing frequency and intensity of these attacks have led to the loss of lives, property, and the displacement of large groups of people. The attendant deepening of food, livelihood, and human insecurities has contributed to a rural exodus of men and women to cities and other economic enclaves in search of alternate sources of food and income. The arrival of displaced persons fleeing the attacks has increased pressure on already limited food stocks and other assets of host communities. COVID-19 added another layer of vulnerability. In addition to the disease burden, lockdowns and restrictions on the movement of persons affected the ability of communities to travel to engage in nonfarm economic activities for supplementary income and food. This greatly affected the food and livelihood security systems of the populations in these already impoverished and fragile communities.

× Over the past decades, climate change has brought about numerous detrimental consequences for agricultural production in many countries, posing a substantial challenge to the economic well being of farmers while affecting national and international economies. Meteorological data specifically indicates that extreme weather events are occurring with unprecedented frequencies, intensities, and durations. This includes events associated with variations in the El Niño – Southern Oscillation of ocean currents, such as unusually dry weather in June through August in Nepal and other parts of South Asia. For example, during the El Niño year of 1992, a particularly severe drought occurred in Nepal, contributing in part to a 17.7 percent fall in rice production relative to the prior trend. Current indications are that another El Niño – related drought may already be underway in 2023 and into 2024. With the extreme weather events, global economies have experienced a number of recent shocks – for example those associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and conflicts in countries such as the Ukraine and Russia that are important exporters of agricultural inputs and goods. As such, this research note explores the implications of a range of agricultural productivity shocks including but not limited to those resulting from a possible El Niño-related drought in 2023 and extending into early 2024 (coinciding with the monsoon and post-monsoon seasons).

× This paper provides a diagnostic of Rwanda’s food systems and the policy landscape that shapes it. It aims to inform national and local conversations on Rwanda’s food systems transformation—an idea that has attracted considerable attention in national consultations conducted in the run-up to the United Nations Food Systems Summit in September 2021, at the summit itself, and in the post-summit actions that Rwanda is now pursuing.
A food system comprises the full range of actors and activities originating from agriculture, livestock, forestry, or fisheries, as well as the broader economic, societal, and natural environments in which they operate. An inclusive and sustainable food systems transformation is a process of growth and development that is profitable for the full range of individual actors engaged in the system, beneficial for society including marginalized and vulnerable groups, and advantageous for the natural environment.
Rwanda’s journey towards a food systems transformation is well captured in Vision 2050, the National Strategy for Transformation (NST 1), and strategic plans for sectors such as agriculture, health, nutrition, commerce, and the environment. Their priorities are echoed in ongoing programs and investments of the government, its development partners, the private sector, and civil society.
Nonetheless, there are still challenges facing Rwanda’s efforts to sustain and accelerate progress along this journey. Efforts to overcome these challenges call for a deeper and more significant shift in thinking—informed by the food systems perspective—that is highlighted by stronger multi-sectoral approaches to problem-solving.
Overall findings suggest an opportunity for a tangible shift in how public policy in Rwanda approaches its food systems and how the systems contribute to the broader national transformation process. This means addressing how balances are struck—and tradeoffs are managed—between and among agriculture, nutrition, health, and the environment in the face of a climate crisis. It also means giving greater attention to the demand-side drivers in Rwanda’s food system, recognizing that singularly focused supply-side strategies rarely succeed in isolation. Finally, it means deepening the integration of policies and policy actors in the design and implementation phases of interventions that shape the food system.
We offer several recommendations to translate abstract ideas into a coherent and focused set of actions in the policy space.
1. Strengthen existing entities and mechanisms rather than create new ones.
2. Develop a national food systems transformation strategy that is integrative, multi-sectoral, and action-oriented.
3. Innovate on existing programs.
4. Allow for learning through both success and failure.
5. Invest in rigorous impact evaluation.
These actions aim to strengthen the policy environment that enables a truly broad-based food systems transformation. This enabling environment is itself an outcome of broad-based national conversations, integration across sectors, domains, and levels; and the encouragement of policy and program innovation.

× El sector agropecuario y en un sentido más amplio, los sistemas alimentarios, están en un proceso de ajuste y transformación impulsado por factores estructurales que se tratan de analizar en este trabajo. Al mismo tiempo, la crisis sanitaria desatada por el COVID 19 y sus consecuencias económicas y sociales, aunque no alteran los desafíos estructurales y de largo plazo, plantean la necesidad de atender las demandas urgentes para asegurar el suministro de alimentos saludables y en forma sostenible para la población. Esto, a su vez, es la condición esencial para poder sostener las medidas sanitarias puestas en ejecución por los gobiernos para superar la pandemia. Además de esta introducción, el presente trabajo está estructurado de la siguiente manera. El capítulo siguiente analiza el proceso de transformación que estaba ya en marcha antes de la aparición de la crisis sanitaria, y al final de esa sección se mencionan brevemente algunos de los impactos del COVID 19 sobre la agricultura y la alimentación. Más adelante en el capítulo tres, se discuten los principales desafíos estructurales de largo plazo que enfrentan la agricultura y la alimentación; en tanto en los capítulos cuatro y cinco se analizan respectivamente las necesidades de ajuste y transformación institucional y los requerimientos de mejoras en políticas públicas sectoriales2 necesarias para enfrentar con éxito los nuevos escenarios. Se incluye finalmente una sección que debate acerca de las necesidades y opciones de financiamiento al sector agroalimentario, asumiendo que para emprender un proceso de recuperación y transformación se requerirán recursos en una escala significativamente mayor a los que se han venido destinando en los últimos años, con la dificultad adicional de que los países de América Latina y el Caribe (ALC) enfrentarán severas restricciones fiscales. Todo esto plantea la necesidad de una gran rigurosidad en la asignación de los recursos, así como la generación de condiciones para la inversión privada e igualmente de la participación activa de la banca multilateral y de las agencias de desarrollo.

× We present results of model simulations of maize, wheat, and sorghum yields in Ethiopia through 2085. The analysis draws on climate outcomes from 32 global climate models and an agronomic crop model to estimate effects on the yields of these cereals of expected higher temperatures and, for most of Ethiopia, increased rainfall. The simulation results suggest that climate change will likely have only relatively small effects on average yields of maize, wheat, and sorghum in Ethiopia up to 2055, as agronomic conditions for cultivation of these crops may actually improve in large parts of the country. Nonetheless, yields will need to increase over time to enable cereal production to keep pace with expected demand growth due to increases in population and per capita incomes. Moreover, even if future changes in climate have only moderate impacts on average crop yields in Ethiopia, there is growing evidence that weather outcomes are likely to become more variable in the future, implying that severe droughts and floods may very well have a greater impact on cereal production in the future than in the past.

× The effects of climate change are increasingly felt among vulnerable populations in many developing countries, particularly those relying on agriculture for their livelihoods, but also the urban poor. Adverse impacts include lower crop yields and crop nutritional values and ripple effects will be felt throughout the entire food value chain unless significant adaptation actions are taken. This paper takes a broad food system perspective and connects the roles and actions of international organi­zations, national governments, local communities and farmers. After an extensive review of the likely effects of climate change and the available adaptation responses, the paper identifies a series of guiding principles to be considered by decision makers as they plan adaptation actions.

× Using governorate-level national data and household survey data, we build a typology of farm households in Egypt that allows us to describe how different farm households behave in response to policy and environmental changes affecting their resources, welfare, and opportunities in output and input markets. One of the major contributions of this study is the building of a unique dataset that combines various data sources at different levels of aggregation, providing the information needed to model the farm typology. We used this dataset as the input of a multi-step procedure that includes the use of principal components and cluster analyses to identify 14 household types. To illustrate possible uses of the typology, we look at the vulnerability of the different types of households to projected changes in temperature, water availability, and water demand from crops due to climate change, and discuss which farmers, production systems, and regions will be most affected by climate shocks. We assumed that increased temperatures by 2050 would result in increased water demand and reduced yields for most crops due to heat stress and harsher growing conditions. We define three climate change scenarios that differ in the expected water flows of the Nile into the Aswan High Dam. Results of simulations using a household model suggest that Egypt is likely to experience a significant reduction in output, agricultural labor demand, and cultivated area because of climate change, although the severity of this outcome will depend on the magnitude of changes in the Nile’s flow. Most affected by these changes will be small and average households producing field crops. Our results suggest that to mitigate the risks and possible future impacts of climate change, the country will need to: Move away from policies supporting production of cereals and water-inefficient crops towards diversification of production into water-efficient high-value crops; facilitate the access of skilled resource-poor producers to capital and markets; and create opportunities for off-farm employment and income for smallholders that are using resources inefficiently.

× Several environmental changes have occurred in the Sudan in the past; several are ongoing; and others are projected to happen in the future. The Sudan has witnessed increases in temperature, floods, rainfall variability, and concurrent droughts. In a country where agriculture, which is mainly rainfed, is a major contributor to gross domestic product, foreign exchange earnings, and livelihoods, these changes are especially important, requiring measurement and analysis of their impact. This study not only analyzes the economy-wide impacts of climate change, but also consults national policy plans, strategies, and environmental assessments to identify interventions which may mitigate the effects. We feed climate forcing, water demand, and macro-socioeconomic trends into a modelling suite that includes models for global hydrology, river basin management, water stress, and crop growth, all connected to the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). The outcomes of this part of the modeling suite are annual crop yields and global food prices under various climate change scenarios until 2050. The effects of such changes on production, consumption, macroeconomic indicators, and income distribution are assessed using a single country dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for the Sudan. Additionally, we introduce yield variability into the CGE model based on stochastic projections of crop yields until 2050. The results of the model simulations reveal that, while the projected mean climate changes bring some good news for the Sudan, extreme negative variability costs the Sudan cumulatively between 2018 and 2050 US$ 109.5 billion in total absorption and US$ 105.5 billion in GDP relative to a historical mean climate scenario without climate change.

× This study determined the adaptation and coping strategies adopted by farmers under yam- and cassava-based farming systems in Ebonyi and Enugu States in Nigeria’s derived savannah agro-ecological zone. The study uses data from 400 farmers. The likelihood that the farmers engage in some actions to cushion the effect of climate change was determined using a probit model and a multi-nomial logistic regression. The results of the study revealed that the main outcomes of climate change were flooding (71.29%), decline in crop yields (65.1%), food price increases (62.87%), and food shortages/insecurity (57.92%). The average amount of loss to climate change was N164,318.8 naira. To cushion the effect of climate change, the highest proportion (45.05%) of the farmers bought food. In terms of land management practices used, the majority (74.34%, 83.55%, 72.37%, and 60.53%) of the farmers keep their land under fallow, mulch/use surface cover, intercrop, and use farmyard manure, respectively. Number of years in school and household size significantly influence the likelihood of a farmer starting non-farm activity to cushion the effect of climate change. Age, gender of household head, and amount of loss due to climate change significantly influence the decision to plant pest- and disease-resistant crops to cushion climate change effects. Thus, policies to encourage planting of these crops should focus more on male-headed households and on households that have experienced some previous losses due to climate change since they will be more likely to grab any opportunity that will prevent any further loss.

× This report examines how extreme weather conditions have affected the mean and variance of the yield of 18 food crops in Nigeria over a period of 42 years (1971-2012). The analysis at the State level was reduced to five Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA) priority crops and covered 22 years (1991-2012) due to data scarcity. The framework for the analysis consists of a stochastic production function suggested by Just and Pope (1978, 1979). The results show that the productivity of more than half of the staple crops in Nigeria is threatened by increase in total annual rainfall and extreme temperature nationally and across states in Nigeria. However, such increase is found to have beneficial effects on the productivity of a few crops grown in Northern Nigeria. The economic impact shows that extreme temperature will cause a considerable annual loss in value for most crops except few that are are grown mainly in Northern Nigeria (Borno, Yobe, Kaduna, Kano and Sokoto states) such as millet, melon, and sugarcane.

× This paper describes the potential impact on the economy of Pakistan of building the Diamer-Basha dam. An integrated system of economic and water simulation models is applied to Pakistan to analyze the economywide impacts of changes in water resources in the Indus river basin, focusing on agricultural and hydropower benefits provided by the Diamer-Basha dam under different climate scenarios. The model framework links separate economic and water models, drawing on the strengths of both approaches without having to compromise by specifying either a simplified treatment of water in an economic model or simplified economics in a water model. The model system is used to simulate the impact of economic growth and changes in water resources over the long run, focusing on agriculture and hydropower. The results of scenario analysis indicate that the Diamer-Basha dam would improve the resilience of Pakistan to adapt to climate shocks, providing increased hydropower capacity and enhanced ability to manage the water system to offset climate-induced variation in river flows.

× By 2050, climate change is likely to reduce maize production globally by 3–10 percent and wheat production in developing countries by 29–34 percent. Even without climate change, the real costs of wheat and maize will increase by 60 percent between 2000 and 2050; climate change could make the figure substantially greater. Food security, despite the above, may be possible if agricultural systems are transformed through improved seed, fertilizer, land use, and governance.

× Climate change has been a significant issue since the end of the 20th century, and impacts a variety of economic sectors, primarily agriculture. The negative impacts of climate change on agricultural production are important because agriculture is closely linked to food security. Although they contribute the least to global pollution, it is estimated that African countries will be the most affected by climate variability. Our paper analyzes the impact of climate change on agricultural production in 11 Eastern and Southern African countries (ESA) during the period from 1961 to 2011 and estimates a panel data model for agricultural production using climate variables (e.g., annual precipitation and annual mean temperature) and economic factors (e.g., livelihood, fertilizer use, machinery, agricultural land, and labor) as explanatory variables.

× This paper investigates the effect of climate variables (precipitation and temperature) on food security indicators from 1961-2011 for 10 Eastern and Southern African countries by estimating fixed effects models. Food security is approximated by three indicators: food production index, mortality rate of people under five years of age, and life expectancy at birth. The results show that GDP per capita, inflation, population growth, and land under cereal production are significant in explaining the indicators of food security.

× This study investigates possible climate change patterns over the period 2040 to 2070 in order to assess the potential economic impacts for crop-livestock integrating and non-integrating farmers in Mzimba district in northern Malawi. Thirty year historical climate data were used with 20 Global Circulation Models (GCM) to generate plausible future climates. Future maize yields then were simulated using the APSIM crop model. The Trade-Off Analysis model for Multi-Dimensional Impact Assessment (TOA-MD) framework was used with the crop model results for economic analysis.

× This paper assesses the effects of rainfall shocks on poverty in Burkina Faso and Senegal using a computable general equilibrium model. An index quantifying effects of rainfall fluctuations shows that, due to a predicted increase in annual rainfall, Senegal will experience a decline in poverty, while Burkina Faso will experience an increase in its poverty rate in conjunction with a trend of declining rainfall. The implementation of mitigating policies in Burkina Faso can affect the rate of increase in poverty, but future rainfall trends are expected to have positive effects on poverty in Senegal and negative effects in Burkina Faso.

× This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the fundamentals of community–based adaptation (CBA) efforts. To start, it develops and describes a framework on adaptation to climate change used as the basis for this research. The paper then defines the characteristics or principles of CBA and describes why it is an essential part of the adaptation process. Following this, it identifies the limitations of or constraints to CBA in practice, including the need to link CBA to the larger adaptation and development processes and discusses institutional arrangements for CBA.

× The rapid expansion of commodity agriculture in tropical forest landscapes is a key driver of deforestation. To meet the growing demand from a more prosperous and expanding global population, it is imperative to develop sustainable commodity supply chains that support higher agricultural productivity, and that enable improved environmental, economic, and social outcomes. Interventions by community, market, and state actors can enhance the sustainability of supply chains by affecting where and how agricultural production occurs. Global datasets were used to document the trends in deforestation and commodity agriculture production and a framework was developed to facilitate analyses of commodity supply chains across multiple interventions, commodities, and countries.

× This paper reviews the central role of institutions for climate-smart agriculture (CSA), focusing on the role of institutions in promoting inclusivity, providing information, enabling local level innovation, encouraging investment, and offering insurance to enable smallholders, women, and poor resource-dependent communities to adopt and benefit from CSA. We discuss the role of state, collective action, and market institutions at multiple levels, with particular attention to the importance of local-level institutions and institutional linkages across levels.

× Climate change increasingly affects the livelihoods of people, and poor people experience especially negative impacts given their lack of capacity to prepare for and cope with the effects of a changing climate. Among poor people, women and men may experience these impacts differently. This review presents and tests two hypotheses on the gender-differentiated impacts of climate change on women and men in developing countries. The first hypothesis is that climate-related events affect men’s and women’s well-being and assets differently. The second hypothesis is that climate-related shocks affect women more negatively than men. With limited evidence from developing countries, this review shows that climate change affects women’s and men’s assets and well-being differently in six impact areas: (i) impacts related to agricultural production, (ii) food security, (iii) health, (iv) water and energy resources, (v) climate-induced migration and conflict, and (vi) climate-related natural disasters. In the literature reviewed, women seem to suffer more negative impacts of climate change in terms of their assets and well-being because of social and cultural norms regarding gender roles and their lack of access to and control of assets, although there are some exceptions. Empirical evidence in this area is limited, patchy, varied, and highly contextual in nature, which makes it difficult to draw strong conclusions. Findings here are indicative of the complexities in the field of gender and climate change, and signal that multidisciplinary research is needed to further enhance the knowledge base on the differential climate impacts on women’s and men’s assets and well-being in agricultural and rural settings, and to understand what mechanisms work best to help women and men in poor communities become more climate resilient.

× Food security has deteriorated since 1995 and reductions in child malnutrition are proceeding too slowly to meet the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) target for halving hunger by 2015. Three major challenges threaten to drastically complicate efforts to overcome food insecurity and malnutrition: climate change, the growing use of food crops as a source of fuel and soaring food prices. Food security has four dimensions: food availability, access to food, stability of supply and access and safe and healthy food utilization. It is a key factor in good nutrition, along with health, sanitation and care practices. Globally, one billion people are currently without access to safe water and over 2 billion lack adequate sanitation facilities. Present global food supplies are more than adequate to provide everyone with all the needed calories, if the food were equally distributed. But over 820 million people in developing countries have calorie-deficient diets; over 60 percent live in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.